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2021-06-21
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It looks a lot like 2004 in the markets, Morgan Stanley says. What happens next.
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What happens next.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145082922","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nU.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound on Monday followi","content":"<blockquote>\n Critical information for the trading day.\n</blockquote>\n<p>U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound on Monday following Wall Street's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>Stocks fell sharply on Friday, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said he expects interest rates to be raised in late 2022 before a turnaround, with investors seemingly still digesting the Fed's signal last week.</p>\n<p>In our call of the day, Morgan Stanley <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$(MS)$</a> said 2021 was beginning to resemble 2004, a year that may offer clues for investors as to what will happen in the months ahead.</p>\n<p>After the U.S. recession ended in 2001, a \"deep malaise\" set in until 2003, when unemployment peaked and markets finally troughed, the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets said in a note on Sunday.</p>\n<p>He noted that the rally of 2003 was \"classic early-cycle stuff,\" with strong performance in small-caps, cyclicals, commodities, inflation breakevens and low-rated credit. \"That rally meant that markets entered 2004 with a lot more in the price,\" he said.</p>\n<p>There are similarities between valuations back then and those today, he said, also acknowledging how abnormal the current times are. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of global equities was 17x compared to 20x today, the U.S. 10-year break-even rate was 2.30%, against 2.26% today, while the VIX volatility index was at 15 at the start of 2004, compared with 18 at the time of writing on Sunday. The DXY dollar index was at 87 on Jan. 1, 2004 and currently sits at 92.</p>\n<p>Growth and inflation both moved higher in 2004 and the \"market tone changed\" as the economy recovered, Sheets said. Energy, utilities, industrials and staples were the best performing sectors globally, while communication services, healthcare, materials and technology were the worst.</p>\n<p>\"In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally. It saw similar valuations.\" Sheets said. \"And what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts -- a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest USD strength and more mixed equity leadership.\"</p>\n<p>While historical comparisons are never perfect, investors can look to 2004 for clues on how to outperform today's market, he said. Non U.S. stocks outperformed 17 years ago and rewarded those with a more balanced cyclical/defensive exposure, loan outperformed bonds, and selling equity volatility was preferable to taking other risk premium, he said, noting that those were strategies Morgan Stanley currently likes.</p>\n<p>There are differences, though, for example the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates in 2004, while the central bank has only just signaled that rate increases will come in 2023 . 2004 was also an election year and central bank policy and liquidity was different, so it is a less useful comparison for global rates. However, Sheets said early 2004 marked a midway point between the end of easing -- a 25 basis point cut in June 2003 -- and the start of tightening, a 25bp hike in June 2004, offering more in common with today.</p>\n<p>Finally, Sheets highlighted just how quickly things can change, noting that on Jan. 1, 2004 the Fed was emphasizing patience, but by June it was \"embarking on hikes that would raise the target by 425bp over the next two years.\"</p>\n<p><b>The chart</b></p>\n<p>Copper futures moved lower again on Monday. This chart from BDSwiss shows the pressure the commodity has been under in recent weeks. \"Expectations of higher interest rates and lower inflation -- plus China's moves to rein in speculation -- have sent commodity prices sharply lower,\" said BDSwiss analyst Marshall Gittler.</p>\n<p><b>The markets</b></p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures pointed higher early on Monday, reversing Sunday night's move lower, suggesting a 180-point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the open.</p>\n<p>In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index tumbled 3.3% in the aftermath of Friday's U.S. selloff. European stocks edged higher , and after a brief recovery continued to slump on Monday, with bitcoin trading at $33,181 and ethereum down 11.6% at $1,993.89.</p>\n<p><b>The buzz</b></p>\n<p>French media conglomerate Vivendi reached an agreement on Sunday to sell a 10% stake in Universal Music Group to William Ackman's , valuing the world's largest music company at about $40 billion.</p>\n<p>Italian-American vehicle maker CNH Industrial said on Monday it has agreed to buy for an enterprise value of $2.1 billion.</p>\n<p>Shares in U.K. supermarket chain Morrisons surged more than 30% early on Monday, after the company rejected a GBP5.5 billion ($7.6 billion) takeover proposal from U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier and Rice.</p>\n<p>Sweden's government collapsed on Monday , after Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lost a no-confidence vote.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It looks a lot like 2004 in the markets, Morgan Stanley says. 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What happens next.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 20:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Critical information for the trading day.\n</blockquote>\n<p>U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound on Monday following Wall Street's worst week since October.</p>\n<p>Stocks fell sharply on Friday, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said he expects interest rates to be raised in late 2022 before a turnaround, with investors seemingly still digesting the Fed's signal last week.</p>\n<p>In our call of the day, Morgan Stanley <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$(MS)$</a> said 2021 was beginning to resemble 2004, a year that may offer clues for investors as to what will happen in the months ahead.</p>\n<p>After the U.S. recession ended in 2001, a \"deep malaise\" set in until 2003, when unemployment peaked and markets finally troughed, the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets said in a note on Sunday.</p>\n<p>He noted that the rally of 2003 was \"classic early-cycle stuff,\" with strong performance in small-caps, cyclicals, commodities, inflation breakevens and low-rated credit. \"That rally meant that markets entered 2004 with a lot more in the price,\" he said.</p>\n<p>There are similarities between valuations back then and those today, he said, also acknowledging how abnormal the current times are. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of global equities was 17x compared to 20x today, the U.S. 10-year break-even rate was 2.30%, against 2.26% today, while the VIX volatility index was at 15 at the start of 2004, compared with 18 at the time of writing on Sunday. The DXY dollar index was at 87 on Jan. 1, 2004 and currently sits at 92.</p>\n<p>Growth and inflation both moved higher in 2004 and the \"market tone changed\" as the economy recovered, Sheets said. Energy, utilities, industrials and staples were the best performing sectors globally, while communication services, healthcare, materials and technology were the worst.</p>\n<p>\"In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally. It saw similar valuations.\" Sheets said. \"And what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts -- a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest USD strength and more mixed equity leadership.\"</p>\n<p>While historical comparisons are never perfect, investors can look to 2004 for clues on how to outperform today's market, he said. Non U.S. stocks outperformed 17 years ago and rewarded those with a more balanced cyclical/defensive exposure, loan outperformed bonds, and selling equity volatility was preferable to taking other risk premium, he said, noting that those were strategies Morgan Stanley currently likes.</p>\n<p>There are differences, though, for example the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates in 2004, while the central bank has only just signaled that rate increases will come in 2023 . 2004 was also an election year and central bank policy and liquidity was different, so it is a less useful comparison for global rates. However, Sheets said early 2004 marked a midway point between the end of easing -- a 25 basis point cut in June 2003 -- and the start of tightening, a 25bp hike in June 2004, offering more in common with today.</p>\n<p>Finally, Sheets highlighted just how quickly things can change, noting that on Jan. 1, 2004 the Fed was emphasizing patience, but by June it was \"embarking on hikes that would raise the target by 425bp over the next two years.\"</p>\n<p><b>The chart</b></p>\n<p>Copper futures moved lower again on Monday. This chart from BDSwiss shows the pressure the commodity has been under in recent weeks. \"Expectations of higher interest rates and lower inflation -- plus China's moves to rein in speculation -- have sent commodity prices sharply lower,\" said BDSwiss analyst Marshall Gittler.</p>\n<p><b>The markets</b></p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures pointed higher early on Monday, reversing Sunday night's move lower, suggesting a 180-point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the open.</p>\n<p>In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index tumbled 3.3% in the aftermath of Friday's U.S. selloff. European stocks edged higher , and after a brief recovery continued to slump on Monday, with bitcoin trading at $33,181 and ethereum down 11.6% at $1,993.89.</p>\n<p><b>The buzz</b></p>\n<p>French media conglomerate Vivendi reached an agreement on Sunday to sell a 10% stake in Universal Music Group to William Ackman's , valuing the world's largest music company at about $40 billion.</p>\n<p>Italian-American vehicle maker CNH Industrial said on Monday it has agreed to buy for an enterprise value of $2.1 billion.</p>\n<p>Shares in U.K. supermarket chain Morrisons surged more than 30% early on Monday, after the company rejected a GBP5.5 billion ($7.6 billion) takeover proposal from U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier and Rice.</p>\n<p>Sweden's government collapsed on Monday , after Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lost a no-confidence vote.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSTLW":"Morgan Stanley","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145082922","content_text":"Critical information for the trading day.\n\nU.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound on Monday following Wall Street's worst week since October.\nStocks fell sharply on Friday, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said he expects interest rates to be raised in late 2022 before a turnaround, with investors seemingly still digesting the Fed's signal last week.\nIn our call of the day, Morgan Stanley $(MS)$ said 2021 was beginning to resemble 2004, a year that may offer clues for investors as to what will happen in the months ahead.\nAfter the U.S. recession ended in 2001, a \"deep malaise\" set in until 2003, when unemployment peaked and markets finally troughed, the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets said in a note on Sunday.\nHe noted that the rally of 2003 was \"classic early-cycle stuff,\" with strong performance in small-caps, cyclicals, commodities, inflation breakevens and low-rated credit. \"That rally meant that markets entered 2004 with a lot more in the price,\" he said.\nThere are similarities between valuations back then and those today, he said, also acknowledging how abnormal the current times are. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of global equities was 17x compared to 20x today, the U.S. 10-year break-even rate was 2.30%, against 2.26% today, while the VIX volatility index was at 15 at the start of 2004, compared with 18 at the time of writing on Sunday. The DXY dollar index was at 87 on Jan. 1, 2004 and currently sits at 92.\nGrowth and inflation both moved higher in 2004 and the \"market tone changed\" as the economy recovered, Sheets said. Energy, utilities, industrials and staples were the best performing sectors globally, while communication services, healthcare, materials and technology were the worst.\n\"In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally. It saw similar valuations.\" Sheets said. \"And what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts -- a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest USD strength and more mixed equity leadership.\"\nWhile historical comparisons are never perfect, investors can look to 2004 for clues on how to outperform today's market, he said. Non U.S. stocks outperformed 17 years ago and rewarded those with a more balanced cyclical/defensive exposure, loan outperformed bonds, and selling equity volatility was preferable to taking other risk premium, he said, noting that those were strategies Morgan Stanley currently likes.\nThere are differences, though, for example the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates in 2004, while the central bank has only just signaled that rate increases will come in 2023 . 2004 was also an election year and central bank policy and liquidity was different, so it is a less useful comparison for global rates. However, Sheets said early 2004 marked a midway point between the end of easing -- a 25 basis point cut in June 2003 -- and the start of tightening, a 25bp hike in June 2004, offering more in common with today.\nFinally, Sheets highlighted just how quickly things can change, noting that on Jan. 1, 2004 the Fed was emphasizing patience, but by June it was \"embarking on hikes that would raise the target by 425bp over the next two years.\"\nThe chart\nCopper futures moved lower again on Monday. This chart from BDSwiss shows the pressure the commodity has been under in recent weeks. \"Expectations of higher interest rates and lower inflation -- plus China's moves to rein in speculation -- have sent commodity prices sharply lower,\" said BDSwiss analyst Marshall Gittler.\nThe markets\nU.S. stock futures pointed higher early on Monday, reversing Sunday night's move lower, suggesting a 180-point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the open.\nIn Japan, the Nikkei 225 index tumbled 3.3% in the aftermath of Friday's U.S. selloff. European stocks edged higher , and after a brief recovery continued to slump on Monday, with bitcoin trading at $33,181 and ethereum down 11.6% at $1,993.89.\nThe buzz\nFrench media conglomerate Vivendi reached an agreement on Sunday to sell a 10% stake in Universal Music Group to William Ackman's , valuing the world's largest music company at about $40 billion.\nItalian-American vehicle maker CNH Industrial said on Monday it has agreed to buy for an enterprise value of $2.1 billion.\nShares in U.K. supermarket chain Morrisons surged more than 30% early on Monday, after the company rejected a GBP5.5 billion ($7.6 billion) takeover proposal from U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier and Rice.\nSweden's government collapsed on Monday , after Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lost a no-confidence vote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/167460621"}
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