根据自己的理解分析下现在svxy的价值

Breeze

2018-02-06

$反向波动率指数短期期货ETF(SVXY)$

根据官网上显示，该基金在2月2号的持仓为：

如果2号到昨晚之间，基金经理没有调仓，那么2月份的部分在昨晚盘后已经爆仓，价值归零。3月份的部分在昨晚距离爆仓只差一点点

(如图再涨2刀就爆了)

但是现在3月份的恐慌指数期货已经回落，按照3月和2月的持仓比例与3月份恐慌指数期货现价来计算，目前svxy为收盘价价格的32%左右，约为23刀。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

壮志凌云
2018-02-06
壮志凌云
请教一下同是一倍做空。SVXY 为什么比XIV 多跌那么多。
- Breeze回复壮志凌云:
  从目前的架势来看，清盘的可能性更大
- 壮志凌云:
  还想请教楼主合股会有损失吗？
- 壮志凌云:
  如果没有做到一倍杠杆。基金公司不该承担责任吗？
daihao007
2018-02-06
daihao007
目前看到的最理性分析了，但不知道算的对不对
- daihao007回复Breeze:
  是的，它能老实的对应vix指数走势就行了，昨天这太变态了，完全无法判断。
- Breeze回复daihao007:
  这个不好判断……不过这次大跌不像以前有特别强的诱因，感觉更多的是涨太久的回调，我觉得如果不继续暴跌就会有强烈的反弹。但svxy不是追踪大盘指数，要看投资者的信心何时能恢复了。
- daihao007回复Breeze:
  太惨了。。。。。。谢谢回答，请问大神如何判断后市，svxy会涨吗
- Breeze回复daihao007:
  归零
- daihao007回复Breeze:
  嗯，现在谁都不敢保证精确到多少。请问如果三月的也爆的话。会跌到多少？
ETF追随者
2018-02-06
ETF追随者
停牌了，废了
- ETF追随者回复Breeze:
  很好奇，停牌为啥公告都没有，也没说停到啥时候
- Breeze:
  别这么悲观兄弟，停牌最后结果啥样谁都说不好
耐心
2018-02-06
耐心
此大神厉害👍
- Breeze:
  谢谢，我也是现查现学现卖
再碰特斯拉期权是狗
2018-02-06
再碰特斯拉期权是狗
理论上今晚应该会回调的，但是不知道今天全球股市的普跌，会不会进一步刺激到散户抛售的情绪。因为在某种程度上来说，这样的涨跌幅似乎无法再用技术来分析了。所以在开盘前真的说不太准。
- MGTZ回复ETF追随者:
  可别一生，一生不差这些钱。今后还要过日子，投资还要继续
- ETF追随者回复再碰特斯拉期权是狗:
  嗯嗯，还有半个小时，一生都赌上了
- 再碰特斯拉期权是狗回复ETF追随者:
  额，那确实不少。希望回调吧。
  SVXY确实跌的有点过分了。盘前要是没有止住跌势，那……希望不会这样吧
- ETF追随者回复MGTZ:
  但愿吧，怕了
- MGTZ回复ETF追随者:
  Vix已经跌了8个点左右，标普和那指期货涨了0.8%了，之前今天盘前问题不大
MGTZ
2018-02-06
MGTZ
盘前是否还会延续抛压态势？
- MGTZ回复Breeze:
  谢谢
- MGTZ回复Breeze:
  嗯，我想问的就是sv盘前是否还是10几块钱的样子，因为目前看了很多人分析，基本上也就值这个价钱了，还得像您分析的3月未爆仓。不懂这玩意，本意买点sv，结果入坑了😂
- Breeze:
  你是指svxy还是大盘？svxy是追踪恐慌指数期货的，和抛压之类的关系不大，大盘目前道指期货跌一个多点

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合股会有损失吗？","text":"还想请教楼主 合股会有损失吗？","html":"还想请教楼主 合股会有损失吗？"},{"id":639513,"commentId":"639513","gmtCreate":1517915984661,"gmtModify":1517915984661,"authorId":197901140630460,"author":{"id":197901140630460,"idStr":"197901140630460","authorId":197901140630460,"name":"壮志凌云","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":639508,"supIdStr":"639508","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"如果没有做到一倍杠杆。基金公司不该承担责任吗？","text":"如果没有做到一倍杠杆。基金公司不该承担责任吗？","html":"如果没有做到一倍杠杆。基金公司不该承担责任吗？"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":638881,"commentId":"638881","gmtCreate":1517902225053,"gmtModify":1517902225053,"authorId":3440385478379936,"author":{"id":3440385478379936,"idStr":"3440385478379936","authorId":3440385478379936,"name":"daihao007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"目前看到的最理性分析了，但不知道算的对不对","text":"目前看到的最理性分析了，但不知道算的对不对","html":"目前看到的最理性分析了，但不知道算的对不对","likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"subComments":[{"id":638930,"commentId":"638930","gmtCreate":1517903511477,"gmtModify":1517903511477,"authorId":3440385478379936,"author":{"id":3440385478379936,"idStr":"3440385478379936","authorId":3440385478379936,"name":"daihao007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":57460033326136,"repliedAuthor":{"id":57460033326136,"idStr":"57460033326136","authorId":57460033326136,"name":"Breeze","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3355a73bc1617efa4addf67b053473eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":638881,"supIdStr":"638881","prevId":638923,"prevIdStr":"638923","content":"是的，它能老实的对应vix指数走势就行了，昨天这太变态了，完全无法判断。","text":"是的，它能老实的对应vix指数走势就行了，昨天这太变态了，完全无法判断。","html":"是的，它能老实的对应vix指数走势就行了，昨天这太变态了，完全无法判断。"},{"id":638923,"commentId":"638923","gmtCreate":1517903414163,"gmtModify":1517903414163,"authorId":57460033326136,"author":{"id":57460033326136,"idStr":"57460033326136","authorId":57460033326136,"name":"Breeze","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3355a73bc1617efa4addf67b053473eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3440385478379936,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3440385478379936,"idStr":"3440385478379936","authorId":3440385478379936,"name":"daihao007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":638881,"supIdStr":"638881","prevId":638901,"prevIdStr":"638901","content":"这个不好判断……不过这次大跌不像以前有特别强的诱因，感觉更多的是涨太久的回调，我觉得如果不继续暴跌就会有强烈的反弹。但svxy不是追踪大盘指数，要看投资者的信心何时能恢复了。","text":"这个不好判断……不过这次大跌不像以前有特别强的诱因，感觉更多的是涨太久的回调，我觉得如果不继续暴跌就会有强烈的反弹。但svxy不是追踪大盘指数，要看投资者的信心何时能恢复了。","html":"这个不好判断……不过这次大跌不像以前有特别强的诱因，感觉更多的是涨太久的回调，我觉得如果不继续暴跌就会有强烈的反弹。但svxy不是追踪大盘指数，要看投资者的信心何时能恢复了。"},{"id":638901,"commentId":"638901","gmtCreate":1517902906130,"gmtModify":1517902906130,"authorId":3440385478379936,"author":{"id":3440385478379936,"idStr":"3440385478379936","authorId":3440385478379936,"name":"daihao007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":57460033326136,"repliedAuthor":{"id":57460033326136,"idStr":"57460033326136","authorId":57460033326136,"name":"Breeze","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3355a73bc1617efa4addf67b053473eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":638881,"supIdStr":"638881","prevId":638890,"prevIdStr":"638890","content":"太惨了。。。。。。谢谢回答，请问大神如何判断后市，svxy会涨吗","text":"太惨了。。。。。。谢谢回答，请问大神如何判断后市，svxy会涨吗","html":"太惨了。。。。。。谢谢回答，请问大神如何判断后市，svxy会涨吗"},{"id":638890,"commentId":"638890","gmtCreate":1517902602914,"gmtModify":1517902602914,"authorId":57460033326136,"author":{"id":57460033326136,"idStr":"57460033326136","authorId":57460033326136,"name":"Breeze","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3355a73bc1617efa4addf67b053473eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3440385478379936,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3440385478379936,"idStr":"3440385478379936","authorId":3440385478379936,"name":"daihao007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":156543,"objectIdStr":"156543","type":1,"supId":638881,"supIdStr":"638881","prevId":638887,"prevIdStr":"638887","content":"归零","text":"归零","html":"归零"},{"id":638887,"commentId":"638887","gmtCreate":1517902503169,"gmtModify":1517902503169,"authorId":3440385478379936,"author":{"id":3440385478379936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所以在开盘前真的说不太准。","text":"理论上今晚应该会回调的，但是不知道今天全球股市的普跌，会不会进一步刺激到散户抛售的情绪。因为在某种程度上来说，这样的涨跌幅似乎无法再用技术来分析了。 所以在开盘前真的说不太准。","html":"理论上今晚应该会回调的，但是不知道今天全球股市的普跌，会不会进一步刺激到散户抛售的情绪。因为在某种程度上来说，这样的涨跌幅似乎无法再用技术来分析了。 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