Youqian
2021-06-30
Oh man
Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history
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The S&P 500 is closing out the first half of the year with a 14% gain.\nHowever, based on historical data from CFRA, the current market backdrop appears ripe for a pullback.\n“History says, but does not guarantee, that even though CFRA projects the S&P 500 to climb toward 4,444 by year-end, the S&P 500 is overdue for a decline in excess of 5%,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.\n\nAs of June 25, the S&P 500 has gone 275 calendar days since its last decline of 5% or more, which took place before the election in September when the 500-stock index lost nearly 10%.\nCFRA notes that since 1945, there have been 60 pullbacks (decline of 5%-9.9%), 23 corrections (declines of 10%-19.9%) and 13 bear markets (declines of 20% or more). 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