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2021-06-30
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Apple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172
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In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a big breakout. In this article, I want to ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.</li>\n <li>But I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.</li>\n <li>Apple is on the cusp of what should be a pre-earnings run and an imminent breakout of a bullish consolidation pattern.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219c4f41554f7e91be4c02cd87e3f8d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>fMing Yeung/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>I have made it no secret that I’m a big fan of <b>Apple</b>(AAPL). In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a big breakout. In this article, I want to update readers on the progress of that, as well as addressing some concerns that could be potentially bearish. But the spoiler alert is that I’m still very much in the camp of Apple setting up a breakout, and I think the company’s typical pre-earnings move is likely the catalyst to see that happen.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37078c4ff01404a43176bb2e2555834d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>To start, I’ve annotated the same ascending triangle formation I noted six weeks ago, because it is still very much in play. The stock is very near the top of the triangle today, so what happens when/if it gets to $136/$137 will determine if the breakout is imminent or if we need at least one more test of the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the triangle. Whether that occurs or not doesn’t change my outlook; only the timing of it.</p>\n<p>Ascending triangles measure upside targets on breakouts equal to the top and bottom of the widest part of the triangle. In this case, the top of the triangle is $137 and the bottom of the triangle, which was set in September of last year, was $102. That means that this triangle pattern has a measured price target – after the breakout – of $35 higher ($137 minus $102), and with the breakout point being $137 or so, that implies we canexpect Apple to hit $172, give or take. Now, that won’t happen immediately, of course, but that’s the kind of opportunity at hand here.</p>\n<p>What do you need to look for on a breakout? First, price action needs to decisively clear the breakout level of $137 and close above it. In addition, you want to see rising volume on the breakout – I’ve annotated declining volume in the triangle period, which is normal behavior – and you want to see rising momentum, we’ve got rising momentum today. So I’d expect a breakout to continue that, but these are the things you want to see on a breakout to ensure it has staying power.</p>\n<p>Finally, you’ll notice that I’ve added blue circles on the chart, and those represent the start of the ~4-week period prior to an earnings release. Apple has been<i>very</i>reliable in the past couple of years in terms of rallying into an earnings report, and I have no reason to think that will change. The gains are fairly large in most cases, with about half of them being in the double-digits, so this is a real catalyst for higher prices.</p>\n<p>The important thing to note is that we are about four weeks from the third quarter report, which typically takes place at the end of July. We are also at the top of the ascending triangle, which means that even a small pre-earnings run will likely result in a breakout, and that’s why I think the breakout is very near.</p>\n<p>To be clear, I’m reiterating my prior thesis that an ascending triangle breakout is coming; I just think we have a very clear catalyst now to make it sooner than later. I see the stock rallying into the earnings report, and if history is a guide, Apple will destroy expectations once again. In short, all is going to plan.</p>\n<p>The risk is that if Apple does break out of the triangle and earnings aren’t very good, the pattern could fail. That would negate my $172 price target, and we’d have to reassess. For now, the odds of that look low, and I’m still full steam ahead on the breakout coming pre-earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Why does Apple rally pre-earnings?</b></p>\n<p>To put it succinctly, Apple rallies pre-earnings because no matter how much analysts raise their targets going into the reports, Apple finds a way to beat them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6233212bc10ea38f20e75d2ed0ab603e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is three years’ worth of data showing how Apple beats expectations, and by enormous margins in some cases. Apple is one of the largest and most-followed companies that has ever existed. So if any company should have an analyst community that knows how it will perform each quarter, it would be this one. However, its dominance in hardware and services revenue has proven too much for analysts over time to keep up with.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind a risk here is that if Apple does finally miss expectations, I have to imagine the stock will react extremely poorly. Thus, there is certainly risk in owning Apple through the earnings report, as with any other stock. But the company’s history of smashing expectations – particularly in the past year – means the odds of this are fairly low. Still, something to keep in mind from a risk perspective.</p>\n<p>In terms of a catalyst for rallying into the July report, Apple continues to see analysts scramble to keep up with its rising fortunes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf56ca48e2364fd7314f9140bc3ab5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The sharp upward revisions that began last summer continue unabated, and Apple’s earnings trajectory remains very much intact. I detailed this in my last piece so I’m simply saying that nothing has changed on this front, and that’s a very good thing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bd9aaadd1cc3a29d7b8e787296ab4b\" tg-width=\"454\" tg-height=\"110\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>I think you’ll struggle to find a company with a better earnings revision schedule, as the past three months have seen 36 EPS revisions, and<i>100%</i>of them were upward. That shows just how strong Apple’s earnings trajectory is, as analysts scramble to meet Apple’s outstanding performances. I love stocks with earnings revision charts like Apple’s because the bar is always rising, which means that the stock will follow suit.</p>\n<p><b>Not all is well</b></p>\n<p>Apple, to be fair, does face a huge amount of risks that are outside of its control. Many of them cropped up since my last report on Apple and so I want to balance my bullish position on the stock with some sobering reality to ensure readers are well-equipped to make an informed decision about whether or not Apple is right for their portfolio.</p>\n<p>First, the FTC made the headlines a few weeks ago by appointing Lina Khan, an outspoken and noted big tech critic, who feels certain companies have too much control over the behaviors of consumers. This is a noteworthy development because if the FTC wants to go after big tech, Apple is a very logical early target. I don’t see it impacting iPhone or other hardware sales but services revenue? Absolutely. This is a longer-term threat since antitrust rules take time to create, but Apple shareholders need to take this threat seriously.</p>\n<p>The White Houseis apparently on board with this line of thinking, and the House is actually considering legislation that would undertake to reign in the perceived control of big tech companies, including Apple's tendency to pre-install its own apps on Apple devices. Would that stop consumers from just going to the app store and downloading them? No, but it certainly isn't a<i>positive</i> catalyst.</p>\n<p>Apple is facing a similar threat in Germany and other places in the developed world, so it isn’t just a problem at home. Germany is assessing if Apple has “competition violations” to be addressed. So the issue is the same one being faced in the US, and the only two outcomes are neutral (nothing happens), or negative (antitrust action is taken).</p>\n<p>Apple is also still very much beholden to the never-ending trade war between China and the US, as the two countries constantly jockey for position with the highest stakes the world has ever seen in such a scuffle. Apple’s production process is potentially at risk, depending upon how ugly things get, adding some geopolitical risk to the stock's outlook. This goes both ways, and China employs a lot of people and generates a lot of cash from Apple’s production. So I’m not sure it is as one-sided as it seems, but the geopolitical risk is never a good thing, and Apple’s manufacturing needs set it up for such a risk.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I’ve enumerated a variety of potential issues Apple is facing, and I’ll be clear and say none of these are good things. The best possible outcome is that nothing changes, and the worst is that all come to fruition and Apple faces manufacturing challenges, as well as antitrust actions. These are real threats, but I also think they're already priced in.</p>\n<p>The threat of antitrust legislation or a trade war with China isn’t new by any stretch of the imagination and is not dissimilar to the threats that other tech giants like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Facebook (FB) face every day. This is par for the course if you’re a dominant tech company, and Apple certainly is. I don’t want to ignore these potential negative catalysts, but I don’t want to overreact, either.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind also that Apple continues to move higher over time despite this bad news, which is what winning stocks do. The fact that it is shrugging off these huge potential negative catalysts reinforces the bullish stance I already had on the stock.</p>\n<p>I detailed my bullishness on the company’s revenue generation, margins, buybacks, valuation, and more in the prior piece, and nothing has changed there. So I don’t want to waste your time going through it again. However, my fundamental stance on Apple hasn’t changed in the past six weeks, and if anything, continued upward revisions in EPS estimates have strengthened the bull case.</p>\n<p>The important thing is that shareholders must be aware of external threats, but also that we are seeing Apple get to the end of its very bullish consolidation pattern at the same time that it typically begins a pre-earnings run higher.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that I think Apple’s breakout is imminent, and that the pattern measures to $172 or so. This won’t happen overnight, but if you were looking to buy Apple, act quickly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Act Quickly Before The Run To $172\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 14:54 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.\nBut I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.\nApple is on the cusp of what should ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437069-apple-act-quickly-before-the-run-to-172","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110936297","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple faces many external threats from regulators in the developed world.\nBut I see these as largely priced in, although they remain a threat longer term.\nApple is on the cusp of what should be a pre-earnings run and an imminent breakout of a bullish consolidation pattern.\n\nfMing Yeung/Getty Images News\nI have made it no secret that I’m a big fan of Apple(AAPL). In fact, I wrote a very bullish piece about six weeks ago, detailing how I thought Apple was in the process of consolidating before a big breakout. In this article, I want to update readers on the progress of that, as well as addressing some concerns that could be potentially bearish. But the spoiler alert is that I’m still very much in the camp of Apple setting up a breakout, and I think the company’s typical pre-earnings move is likely the catalyst to see that happen.\nSource: StockCharts\nTo start, I’ve annotated the same ascending triangle formation I noted six weeks ago, because it is still very much in play. The stock is very near the top of the triangle today, so what happens when/if it gets to $136/$137 will determine if the breakout is imminent or if we need at least one more test of the rising trend line that forms the bottom of the triangle. Whether that occurs or not doesn’t change my outlook; only the timing of it.\nAscending triangles measure upside targets on breakouts equal to the top and bottom of the widest part of the triangle. In this case, the top of the triangle is $137 and the bottom of the triangle, which was set in September of last year, was $102. That means that this triangle pattern has a measured price target – after the breakout – of $35 higher ($137 minus $102), and with the breakout point being $137 or so, that implies we canexpect Apple to hit $172, give or take. Now, that won’t happen immediately, of course, but that’s the kind of opportunity at hand here.\nWhat do you need to look for on a breakout? First, price action needs to decisively clear the breakout level of $137 and close above it. In addition, you want to see rising volume on the breakout – I’ve annotated declining volume in the triangle period, which is normal behavior – and you want to see rising momentum, we’ve got rising momentum today. So I’d expect a breakout to continue that, but these are the things you want to see on a breakout to ensure it has staying power.\nFinally, you’ll notice that I’ve added blue circles on the chart, and those represent the start of the ~4-week period prior to an earnings release. Apple has beenveryreliable in the past couple of years in terms of rallying into an earnings report, and I have no reason to think that will change. The gains are fairly large in most cases, with about half of them being in the double-digits, so this is a real catalyst for higher prices.\nThe important thing to note is that we are about four weeks from the third quarter report, which typically takes place at the end of July. We are also at the top of the ascending triangle, which means that even a small pre-earnings run will likely result in a breakout, and that’s why I think the breakout is very near.\nTo be clear, I’m reiterating my prior thesis that an ascending triangle breakout is coming; I just think we have a very clear catalyst now to make it sooner than later. I see the stock rallying into the earnings report, and if history is a guide, Apple will destroy expectations once again. In short, all is going to plan.\nThe risk is that if Apple does break out of the triangle and earnings aren’t very good, the pattern could fail. That would negate my $172 price target, and we’d have to reassess. For now, the odds of that look low, and I’m still full steam ahead on the breakout coming pre-earnings.\nWhy does Apple rally pre-earnings?\nTo put it succinctly, Apple rallies pre-earnings because no matter how much analysts raise their targets going into the reports, Apple finds a way to beat them.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is three years’ worth of data showing how Apple beats expectations, and by enormous margins in some cases. Apple is one of the largest and most-followed companies that has ever existed. So if any company should have an analyst community that knows how it will perform each quarter, it would be this one. However, its dominance in hardware and services revenue has proven too much for analysts over time to keep up with.\nKeep in mind a risk here is that if Apple does finally miss expectations, I have to imagine the stock will react extremely poorly. Thus, there is certainly risk in owning Apple through the earnings report, as with any other stock. But the company’s history of smashing expectations – particularly in the past year – means the odds of this are fairly low. Still, something to keep in mind from a risk perspective.\nIn terms of a catalyst for rallying into the July report, Apple continues to see analysts scramble to keep up with its rising fortunes.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThe sharp upward revisions that began last summer continue unabated, and Apple’s earnings trajectory remains very much intact. I detailed this in my last piece so I’m simply saying that nothing has changed on this front, and that’s a very good thing.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI think you’ll struggle to find a company with a better earnings revision schedule, as the past three months have seen 36 EPS revisions, and100%of them were upward. That shows just how strong Apple’s earnings trajectory is, as analysts scramble to meet Apple’s outstanding performances. I love stocks with earnings revision charts like Apple’s because the bar is always rising, which means that the stock will follow suit.\nNot all is well\nApple, to be fair, does face a huge amount of risks that are outside of its control. Many of them cropped up since my last report on Apple and so I want to balance my bullish position on the stock with some sobering reality to ensure readers are well-equipped to make an informed decision about whether or not Apple is right for their portfolio.\nFirst, the FTC made the headlines a few weeks ago by appointing Lina Khan, an outspoken and noted big tech critic, who feels certain companies have too much control over the behaviors of consumers. This is a noteworthy development because if the FTC wants to go after big tech, Apple is a very logical early target. I don’t see it impacting iPhone or other hardware sales but services revenue? Absolutely. This is a longer-term threat since antitrust rules take time to create, but Apple shareholders need to take this threat seriously.\nThe White Houseis apparently on board with this line of thinking, and the House is actually considering legislation that would undertake to reign in the perceived control of big tech companies, including Apple's tendency to pre-install its own apps on Apple devices. Would that stop consumers from just going to the app store and downloading them? No, but it certainly isn't apositive catalyst.\nApple is facing a similar threat in Germany and other places in the developed world, so it isn’t just a problem at home. Germany is assessing if Apple has “competition violations” to be addressed. So the issue is the same one being faced in the US, and the only two outcomes are neutral (nothing happens), or negative (antitrust action is taken).\nApple is also still very much beholden to the never-ending trade war between China and the US, as the two countries constantly jockey for position with the highest stakes the world has ever seen in such a scuffle. Apple’s production process is potentially at risk, depending upon how ugly things get, adding some geopolitical risk to the stock's outlook. This goes both ways, and China employs a lot of people and generates a lot of cash from Apple’s production. So I’m not sure it is as one-sided as it seems, but the geopolitical risk is never a good thing, and Apple’s manufacturing needs set it up for such a risk.\nFinal thoughts\nI’ve enumerated a variety of potential issues Apple is facing, and I’ll be clear and say none of these are good things. The best possible outcome is that nothing changes, and the worst is that all come to fruition and Apple faces manufacturing challenges, as well as antitrust actions. These are real threats, but I also think they're already priced in.\nThe threat of antitrust legislation or a trade war with China isn’t new by any stretch of the imagination and is not dissimilar to the threats that other tech giants like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Facebook (FB) face every day. This is par for the course if you’re a dominant tech company, and Apple certainly is. I don’t want to ignore these potential negative catalysts, but I don’t want to overreact, either.\nKeep in mind also that Apple continues to move higher over time despite this bad news, which is what winning stocks do. The fact that it is shrugging off these huge potential negative catalysts reinforces the bullish stance I already had on the stock.\nI detailed my bullishness on the company’s revenue generation, margins, buybacks, valuation, and more in the prior piece, and nothing has changed there. So I don’t want to waste your time going through it again. However, my fundamental stance on Apple hasn’t changed in the past six weeks, and if anything, continued upward revisions in EPS estimates have strengthened the bull case.\nThe important thing is that shareholders must be aware of external threats, but also that we are seeing Apple get to the end of its very bullish consolidation pattern at the same time that it typically begins a pre-earnings run higher.\nThe bottom line is that I think Apple’s breakout is imminent, and that the pattern measures to $172 or so. This won’t happen overnight, but if you were looking to buy Apple, act quickly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/151111198"}
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