期权老虎机

去过Las Vegas的朋友一定玩过老虎机。酒店lobby到处都是，赌资最低便宜到1美分，玩法简单，变化多样，10块钱可以慢慢消耗一下午。要是不过瘾，可以加倍压，压多条线，赌注翻n倍，100块也不够玩10分钟。

有人赢吗？当然有，n年前，我前同事在等人的时候顺手玩一把赚了1000块，这个故事重复讲了很多年。但是通常赢钱那人多半不是你。老虎机就是吃钱的老虎。

股票期权市场有老虎机吗？有，深虚值期权就是。深虚值期权便宜，最低便宜到1分，还没有手续费贵。风险有限，回报无限。玩期权的朋友一定都买过这类期权。大多数人通常赢少输多，总成绩不理想。

为何总输，因为这类期权获胜概率太低。只有在买入期权后股价马上按期望的方向走才能赚钱，不然时间流逝就慢慢蚕食了权利金，一般人哪有那个功力。所谓以小博大，小不是指小资金，小是指小概率。

长期而言，小概率的赌博必输无疑。玩期权一定要让概率站在自己一边。
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

simons的期权实验室
2018-01-19
simons的期权实验室
深价外在实战中并非只有赌博一种用途。一般期权老鸟都称之为teeny，2种用途：1、用来做margin control，稀释尾部风险，降低保证金压力。2、单纯的对冲，用来hedge black swan。
- 凤飞飞:
  多谢你的补充，👍。如果期权做对冲，基本就是抱着这些权利金打水漂的心态，期权归零也就不会懊悔了。
高梁
2018-01-25
高梁
我喜欢玩未曰期权，可惜太多限制
- 凤飞飞回复高梁:
  不足就是爆仓。保证金管理也需要事先有策略
- 高梁回复凤飞飞:
  老是说，到期保证金不足。
- 凤飞飞:
  什么限制？说来听听看？
Tony特别帅
2018-01-19
Tony特别帅
哥们明鉴。除非特别确定因素，最好不要买近期价外
高梁
2018-01-25
高梁
那种深虚，是中大奖。才会赢。

发表看法

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4

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