gNoel
2021-07-12
A good read
Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance
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Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.</li>\n <li>The current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.</li>\n <li>In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</li>\n <li>The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Could a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.</p>\n<p>The financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation And Perspectives</b></p>\n<p>We usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.</p>\n<p>The value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.</p>\n<p>The weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fcadf6dbf15f58f33506c58d8ad7fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>According to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9685bee425247505e9479e60a75ad72\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>Thus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1919420bc286424d2f62152e2e14ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>It is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befcd5a3926ada7aebead8314713d44c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>Thus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c6ee07b1a3cbcce384d7e62e90632c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>In an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 11:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143980547","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and grow at CAGR of 350%. Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.\nThe current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.\nIn our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.\n\n\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n\nThesis\nCould a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.\nThe financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nValuation And Perspectives\nWe usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nThe value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.\nThe weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nAccording to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nThus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIt is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nThus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIn an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.\nConclusion\nVirgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/146840481"}
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