减仓英伟达重仓美光

2018-01-12

$美光科技(MU)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$

这两天一直在关注ces，有一种很强烈的感觉就是所有高科技产品的数据处理量，传输速度，计算速度都在成指数型增长。虽然我是英伟达铁粉一枚，但是仔细想一想英伟达在市场上潜在的竞争对手多如牛毛，虽然现在英伟达的地位无可动摇，但将来低功耗高性能的特制AI芯片一定会给英伟达带来巨大冲击。反观美光，做着最不引人注目的工作，但却又是整个人工智能行业的核心之一。美光ceo在ces的一个采访中说，美光在现在的市场中是uniquely positioned，我个人强烈认同。云计算，无人驾驶，IoT，5G没有一个离得开高速储存，然而这个行业能和美光竞争的又有多少？PC业务只是美光的冰山一角，短期的价格波动根本无伤大雅，将来的PC可能连硬盘都不需要了，所有数据都存在云端。所以在我看来现在的美光就是两年前的英伟达。买定离手，长期持有。最后还得感谢@蓝天白云大神，没看大神的贴都不知道有这么一支好股票，感谢蓝天大神！

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

civi
2018-01-12
civi
对比产品是静态的，对比企业是动态的。
寒武纪的图形单位已经在华为的芯片中运用。说明在GPU领域新进入者的突破速度还是很快。因为这是软突破。
差距当然存在，但不是所有AI场景都需要最尖端的图形处理芯片，新进入厂商的生存空间是现实存在的。
在众多厂家围困追赶下，即使最优秀的产品也不敢追求超额利润。这也是商业逻辑。
英伟达的未来肯定美好，但是已被过分描述。。自动驾驶平台并不统一，分食者众
- civi回复牛油果:
  CEO低调会增加市场的信息成本，我们赚的就是信息租值。。信息成本（租值）随着时间的推移而消散。
  一切都会大白天下。。当然那时再下手已经晚了。
- 牛油果回复civi:
  需要时间，而且还需要一个厉害的ceo，美光的ceo太低调了，人家黄仁勋每一次演讲都讲的风生水起，股价也跟着水涨船高
- civi回复civi:
  图形处理芯片领域的未来竞争和变化，一定是＞存储芯片
- civi:
  从自动驾驶的市场格局中可以一窥整个AI领域。。没有谁是稳坐统治地位的。
  也没有三两个制造企业可联合垄断整个市场。
图书馆管理员亏晕了
2018-01-12
图书馆管理员亏晕了
不舍得减仓，也不想增加杠杆了……
- civi回复突击检查抽屉柜:
  谢谢指导。
- 突击检查抽屉柜回复civi:
  芯片的门槛在于架构设计，这块英伟达有很高的门槛。而且计算型芯片和调度型芯片（cpu）cpu架构差距更大；华为的海思其实就是买了英特尔的架构设计。就算amd和Intel合作，在计算芯片架构层面，还是有很大门槛，所以英伟达短期很难被超越。美光不了解
- 图书馆管理员亏晕了回复civi:
  新研究出来的都比较“原始”，还需要时间而且美光具体什么情况股价会给出答案……
- civi回复牛油果:
  Nvda的优势是软优势，美光是硬优势。软优势很容易被突破，国内寒武纪都在做图形处理器的研发。。
  nvda要面对众多激烈竞争，优势很难转换成长期的现金流。
- 牛油果:
  今年nvda和美光谁涨的多真不好说，再长远一点那应该是美光
天虎
2018-01-12
天虎
不是想替代就替代的，这不仅是芯片的问题，是一整套系统，就算芯片做出来了，但是市场上用的都是英伟达芯片配套的系统，怎么替代，就如微信一样，搞个差不多的很容易，但有用吗，谁会去用
香蕉君
2018-01-12
香蕉君
毕竟还是周期股，注意风险。
斗战胜佛巴菲特
2018-01-12
斗战胜佛巴菲特
我跟你相反全仓2倍杠杆英伟达之前走了一些进阿里后悔死了
zzzzzq
2018-01-12
zzzzzq
低功耗高性能，咋不上天

发表看法

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