what are the chance that appl reach 200 in the end of year?

For those of you predicting $200 by the end of the year (let's call it 5 months), here is some historical analysis on that
prospect. $200 is an increase of 38% over $145. Between 1/1/2001 and 2/11/2021, there were 5060 trading days. If you pick each one of those, and check the price 5 months later, there were 865 days where the price was 38% or more
higher 5 months later. 865 out of 5060 begets a 17% probability that we'll be at $200 by mid-December this year, assuming there's any meaning whatsoever in this data (there isn't, lol, it's just fun).
But I went further: Most of those quick increases were between 2004 and 2009. In fact, only 25% of those increases came
between 2010 and 2021! So if you're honest about data, you should "weight" your claim of "17% chance of getting to 200!" by taking 25% of 17%: Call it 4.25%."We have a 4.25% chance of getting to $200 by the end of December." Unlikely, but possible! $Apple(AAPL)$