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2021-05-21
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Disney: On A Pricey Stock And A Studio Comeback
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Disney, to me, is a core holding considering that the company owns Pixar, Marvel, etc. Nevertheless, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out some of the valuation concerns. I also want to emphasize that I am bullish on the shares for the long term.</p>\n<p>I wanted to get that upfront before I take a brief look at the company's current status. The parks tend to get the most attention these days (for obvious reasons) after direct-to-consumer, but I will focus in on theatrical distribution, as I think that will be key toward bringing attention to both the Disney brand generally and the streaming service specifically.</p>\n<p><b>Disappointing Streaming Numbers...?</b></p>\n<p>First, though, I want to highlight thesubscriber countfor D+. That came in at 103.6 million users versus an expectation of 109.3 million. Over the long term, this current discrepancy will be meaningless. And, in fact, those looking to get the company on the lower end of its 52-week range should root for Wall Street to become even more bearish on the stat over the next several weeks. (I don't think we'll see the actual low, though.)</p>\n<p>However, I do have to admit that I was surprised by this stat as well. I'm not sure I necessarily had a specific subscriber-count in mind, but on reflection, I suppose if someone had asked me, I would have considered a number between 110 million and 115 million. Near the first week of March, the company announced it had reached100 millionsubscribers. Given the momentum behind D+ signups and its popular content, as well as the natural marketing buzz implied by the 100-million level, it just feels correct to have assumed a higher amount. Nevertheless, according to theearnings-call transcriptand comments from CEO Bob Chapek, the company is still on a proper trajectory to reach between 230 million and 260 million subscribers by 2024. Intuitively, one would assume there is the possibility that a new range beginning with 260 million will eventually be projected, unless the benefit from the pandemic effect truly is beginning to fade. Overall, I'm willing to put this expectation-miss in the rearview mirror.</p>\n<p><b>Disney's Studio Segment Will Return Strong</b></p>\n<p>The great thing about the studio segment is that, even with the multiplex industry at a standstill, it was able to weather the storm fine enough, in part, because of the absence of marketing costs (which causes me to point out yet again that studio execs really need to focus some time on this and find opportunities where inexpensive selling campaigns can be substituted for the more expensive variety). Operating income for the new reporting division called Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, which includes movie-studio activities as well as all the rest of the content ecosystem, was up well over 70% to just under $2.9 billion. For the six-month frame, the gain in income was 38% to $4.3 billion. Obviously, it wasn't all about the marketing costs, but nevertheless, when you compare it to the tough comps at the parks segment, you begin to appreciate the diversity of the company. We now know how good an anchor business the studio can be.</p>\n<p>And that business is about to become stronger relative to the status quo because theaters are readying for the next level of reopening. AT&T's (T)<i>Godzilla vs. Kong</i>has brought in over $400 million across global screens. Disney has a few potential hits the next few months with<i>Cruella</i>,<i>Black Widow</i>, and<i>Jungle Cruise</i>. It also will get a new round of valuable data with the day-and-date release strategy being used since the films will also be available on D+ for a price of $30; this gives consumers who don't want to chance a run-in with SARS variants at auditoriums the option of paying a premium to stay home and take in the moving pictures. Hopefully execs will see fit to share some of the results where it concerns the premium-video-on-demand revenues, especially for<i>Widow</i>, which will represent a great experiment to see how a true tentpole performs under hybrid-release conditions.</p>\n<p>Covering another angle, I think Disney may be making a mistake by placing the next Pixar project,<i>Luca</i>, on D+ sans the premium fee. I am curious how that would have performed with the $30 price tag. Obviously Disney has more data than I do, but I would have assumed this to be another great test that the company may not have another chance at in the near future. The service clearly benefited from the early debut of Pixar cartoons, but Disney should have perhaps attempted to do at least a hybrid release, or a near day-and-date release (i.e., maybe go to D+ a month after theatrical debut), and then see how domestic-multiplex audiences reacted to the placement. One of the previous Pixar stories,<i>Onward</i>, was released in February of last year, only to hit digital-transactional sales a month later, and then D+ two weeks after that;<i>Soul</i>, you'll recall, premiered on the platform during the Christmas holiday, with no domestic-theatrical release. The<i>Luca</i>strategy makes me wonder if the company is seeking a new catalytic engine for the next round of subscriber growth. Even more odd, you will recall that<i>Hamilton</i>and<i>Artemis Fowl</i>also debuted on the service without any paywall. While one could make an argument that those two projects were more logically distributed, the thing about a Pixar feature is the assumed premium the market is willing to pay for it. Perhaps that premium is more narrow in breadth than a Marvel extravaganza. Like I say, Disney may be simply reading the data and acting accordingly, but it makes me extremely curious nevertheless.</p>\n<p>Content, of course, will ultimately drive subscriptions, and volume is important. Management clearly recognizes this given the packed schedule of shows and films to be released on D+ over the next few years. I think the company will also create more promotional features for upcoming films as a cheap way of increasing the volume of content. This will increase the synergy between studio and streamer and will potentially positively impact the high cost of marketing campaigns. Disney probably has only scratched the surface when it comes to using its direct-to-consumer services for cross-promotion, so it'll be something to watch in the coming years as these services expand in importance to the company.</p>\n<p>Chapek also mentioned a very interesting point when asked about the company's decision to release<i>Widow</i>to D+ for a fee and in theaters at the same time. The analyst, Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs, wondered if there should be at least a little exclusivity to the debut in theaters. Chapek cited a notable observation having to do with<i>The Mandalorian</i>: he said that the company was quite pleased with merchandise sales off a series that never had a theatrical release. He seems to be implying that a<i>Star-Wars</i>-branded episodic asset, one that is nonetheless cinematic in nature and full of great production value, can provide ample ancillary effects for the company in a similar manner to a theatrical release - thus, something like<i>Widow</i>, which would have previously been under a distribution-window strategy, can still provide value for the company's other assets even if some ticket sales are swapped for subscription signups, and by proxy, should maximize revenue by presenting optionality to the consumer. I tend to agree with this and believe the company will look to experiment further with day-and-date (or near day-and-date) strategies into the future.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation/Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There's no question Disney is going to capture a lot of the potential economic demand built up by the pandemic. Parks and movies will see to that. Over the longer term, this stock will do well.</p>\n<p>But, just on the basis of current stock valuation, I continue to see this as an expensive float. SA'svaluationreport basically tells the tale. As an example, the adjusted P/E on a forward basis is over 70 at the time of this writing, multiple times the sector median.</p>\n<p>Yes, Disney's business model will bounce back strong, but I'm currently not adding to my position. I want to see more of a drop first as I still find the stock a bit rich in terms of valuation.</p>\n<p>Disney turned out to be a complicated situation during the pandemic: the market continued to bid the stock higher and may have gotten ahead of itself. Usually I'm for dollar-cost-averaging this name, especially for individuals who are in the early stages of investing, and certainly that approach can be taken depending on one's situation and time horizon. But for now, I've been adding to other names while holding on to my long-term position and watching the tape.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: On A Pricey Stock And A Studio Comeback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: On A Pricey Stock And A Studio Comeback\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 19:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430391-disney-on-a-pricey-stock-and-studio-comeback><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDisney is still an expensive stock.\nThe rebound for parks is coming, as well as the one for the studio segment.\nD+ subscription numbers did disappoint, but over time, the current news won't ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430391-disney-on-a-pricey-stock-and-studio-comeback\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430391-disney-on-a-pricey-stock-and-studio-comeback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1148612426","content_text":"Summary\n\nDisney is still an expensive stock.\nThe rebound for parks is coming, as well as the one for the studio segment.\nD+ subscription numbers did disappoint, but over time, the current news won't matter.\nI am bullish on the premium-video-on-demand/day-and-date strategy Disney is employing for its next features (I wish the next Pixar film was using it as well).\nCEO Bob Chapek made an interesting observation about the strategy, relating it to \"The Mandalorian.\"\n\nHere's the bottom line at the top: Disney (DIS) will bounce back from the current SARS crisis as vaccinations continue; for now, though, the stock continues to rate as expensive.\nIt's a weird position to be in, for sure: the parks are once again open, as mentioned in the recentearnings report, the movie business is rebooting, and Covid-19 cases seem to be heading in the right direction (although I continue to be cautious vis a vis the variants and their potential impact).\nHowever, the exuberance afforded the D+ streaming service caused the stock to get ahead of itself. Disney, to me, is a core holding considering that the company owns Pixar, Marvel, etc. Nevertheless, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out some of the valuation concerns. I also want to emphasize that I am bullish on the shares for the long term.\nI wanted to get that upfront before I take a brief look at the company's current status. The parks tend to get the most attention these days (for obvious reasons) after direct-to-consumer, but I will focus in on theatrical distribution, as I think that will be key toward bringing attention to both the Disney brand generally and the streaming service specifically.\nDisappointing Streaming Numbers...?\nFirst, though, I want to highlight thesubscriber countfor D+. That came in at 103.6 million users versus an expectation of 109.3 million. Over the long term, this current discrepancy will be meaningless. And, in fact, those looking to get the company on the lower end of its 52-week range should root for Wall Street to become even more bearish on the stat over the next several weeks. (I don't think we'll see the actual low, though.)\nHowever, I do have to admit that I was surprised by this stat as well. I'm not sure I necessarily had a specific subscriber-count in mind, but on reflection, I suppose if someone had asked me, I would have considered a number between 110 million and 115 million. Near the first week of March, the company announced it had reached100 millionsubscribers. Given the momentum behind D+ signups and its popular content, as well as the natural marketing buzz implied by the 100-million level, it just feels correct to have assumed a higher amount. Nevertheless, according to theearnings-call transcriptand comments from CEO Bob Chapek, the company is still on a proper trajectory to reach between 230 million and 260 million subscribers by 2024. Intuitively, one would assume there is the possibility that a new range beginning with 260 million will eventually be projected, unless the benefit from the pandemic effect truly is beginning to fade. Overall, I'm willing to put this expectation-miss in the rearview mirror.\nDisney's Studio Segment Will Return Strong\nThe great thing about the studio segment is that, even with the multiplex industry at a standstill, it was able to weather the storm fine enough, in part, because of the absence of marketing costs (which causes me to point out yet again that studio execs really need to focus some time on this and find opportunities where inexpensive selling campaigns can be substituted for the more expensive variety). Operating income for the new reporting division called Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, which includes movie-studio activities as well as all the rest of the content ecosystem, was up well over 70% to just under $2.9 billion. For the six-month frame, the gain in income was 38% to $4.3 billion. Obviously, it wasn't all about the marketing costs, but nevertheless, when you compare it to the tough comps at the parks segment, you begin to appreciate the diversity of the company. We now know how good an anchor business the studio can be.\nAnd that business is about to become stronger relative to the status quo because theaters are readying for the next level of reopening. AT&T's (T)Godzilla vs. Konghas brought in over $400 million across global screens. Disney has a few potential hits the next few months withCruella,Black Widow, andJungle Cruise. It also will get a new round of valuable data with the day-and-date release strategy being used since the films will also be available on D+ for a price of $30; this gives consumers who don't want to chance a run-in with SARS variants at auditoriums the option of paying a premium to stay home and take in the moving pictures. Hopefully execs will see fit to share some of the results where it concerns the premium-video-on-demand revenues, especially forWidow, which will represent a great experiment to see how a true tentpole performs under hybrid-release conditions.\nCovering another angle, I think Disney may be making a mistake by placing the next Pixar project,Luca, on D+ sans the premium fee. I am curious how that would have performed with the $30 price tag. Obviously Disney has more data than I do, but I would have assumed this to be another great test that the company may not have another chance at in the near future. The service clearly benefited from the early debut of Pixar cartoons, but Disney should have perhaps attempted to do at least a hybrid release, or a near day-and-date release (i.e., maybe go to D+ a month after theatrical debut), and then see how domestic-multiplex audiences reacted to the placement. One of the previous Pixar stories,Onward, was released in February of last year, only to hit digital-transactional sales a month later, and then D+ two weeks after that;Soul, you'll recall, premiered on the platform during the Christmas holiday, with no domestic-theatrical release. TheLucastrategy makes me wonder if the company is seeking a new catalytic engine for the next round of subscriber growth. Even more odd, you will recall thatHamiltonandArtemis Fowlalso debuted on the service without any paywall. While one could make an argument that those two projects were more logically distributed, the thing about a Pixar feature is the assumed premium the market is willing to pay for it. Perhaps that premium is more narrow in breadth than a Marvel extravaganza. Like I say, Disney may be simply reading the data and acting accordingly, but it makes me extremely curious nevertheless.\nContent, of course, will ultimately drive subscriptions, and volume is important. Management clearly recognizes this given the packed schedule of shows and films to be released on D+ over the next few years. I think the company will also create more promotional features for upcoming films as a cheap way of increasing the volume of content. This will increase the synergy between studio and streamer and will potentially positively impact the high cost of marketing campaigns. Disney probably has only scratched the surface when it comes to using its direct-to-consumer services for cross-promotion, so it'll be something to watch in the coming years as these services expand in importance to the company.\nChapek also mentioned a very interesting point when asked about the company's decision to releaseWidowto D+ for a fee and in theaters at the same time. The analyst, Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs, wondered if there should be at least a little exclusivity to the debut in theaters. Chapek cited a notable observation having to do withThe Mandalorian: he said that the company was quite pleased with merchandise sales off a series that never had a theatrical release. He seems to be implying that aStar-Wars-branded episodic asset, one that is nonetheless cinematic in nature and full of great production value, can provide ample ancillary effects for the company in a similar manner to a theatrical release - thus, something likeWidow, which would have previously been under a distribution-window strategy, can still provide value for the company's other assets even if some ticket sales are swapped for subscription signups, and by proxy, should maximize revenue by presenting optionality to the consumer. I tend to agree with this and believe the company will look to experiment further with day-and-date (or near day-and-date) strategies into the future.\nValuation/Conclusion\nThere's no question Disney is going to capture a lot of the potential economic demand built up by the pandemic. Parks and movies will see to that. Over the longer term, this stock will do well.\nBut, just on the basis of current stock valuation, I continue to see this as an expensive float. SA'svaluationreport basically tells the tale. As an example, the adjusted P/E on a forward basis is over 70 at the time of this writing, multiple times the sector median.\nYes, Disney's business model will bounce back strong, but I'm currently not adding to my position. I want to see more of a drop first as I still find the stock a bit rich in terms of valuation.\nDisney turned out to be a complicated situation during the pandemic: the market continued to bid the stock higher and may have gotten ahead of itself. Usually I'm for dollar-cost-averaging this name, especially for individuals who are in the early stages of investing, and certainly that approach can be taken depending on one's situation and time horizon. But for now, I've been adding to other names while holding on to my long-term position and watching the tape.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":60,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/139352876"}
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