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2021-05-21
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Merck's Valuation Continues To Say 'BUY'
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T","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Merck is one of the largest positions in the pharmaceutical segment in my core portfolio. The company is currently at roughly no P/L in terms of ROIC.</li>\n <li>I expect Merck to appreciate significantly over the coming years thanks to EPS growth as well as dividend growth.</li>\n <li>The company at current valuation is an excellent \"BUY\" with significant upside, even if there are some risks to the company at this point.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Merck(NYSE:MRK)is one of my largest pharma/healthcare holdings in the entire portfolio, and for a very good reason. The company's valuation seen in relation to its historical multiples as well as realistic upsides and recent results show us a very positive sort of scenario with plenty of potential upsides.</p>\n<p>In this article, we'll go through a few of the reasons why I still invest in the company, and why I consider it one of the (though not the) best investments you can make into the space today.</p>\n<p><b>Merck - How has the company been doing?</b></p>\n<p>Merck is a massive company, with a huge pipeline, a humongous portfolio, and impressive sales. Unfortunately, those impressive sales took a slight downward turn the last quarter, with the company reporting YoY declining sales and EPS, even if it's in fairly low numbers of -1% in sales, and -9% in non-GAAP EPS performance during the quarter.</p>\n<p>The company continued to invest significant capital, $2.4B during 1Q20, in new development and paid out $1.6B in company dividends. The company also received some important approvals in Keytruda and oncology, as well as some positive results in HIV medication. The FDA approvedKeytrudafor use in certain types of cancer and heart failures, and there were positives news out of China and Japan as well.</p>\n<p>Segment-wise, Oncology is showing continued growth...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270d5db8383687242cf8f902b8f9741a\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"471\">(Source: Merck)</p>\n<p>...withKeytrudabeing the star of the show in terms of absolute volume, but Lynparza outdoing it in terms of growth. In terms of vaccines, Merck hasn't participated in the COVID-19 vaccine trends or production, which has impacted performance significantly here. The company is experiencing double-digit declines in both Gardasil and Pneumovax, the latter down 36% YoY in terms of sales.</p>\n<p>These negatives trends, which are likely to persist somewhat, are weighed up by performance in hospitals, with Bridion sales up 11% or $340M YoY. The company also has its animal health segment, which is showing 15% YoY growth across the board, with companion sales increasing by 24% and livestock by 9%. This was a mix of animal intelligence products, parasiticides, and animal vaccines.</p>\n<p>A geographical YoY overview shows the company's weakness as a non-COVID 19 participant, with the exception of LATAM which went well...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304ecba6662ea9bf45564c00329f25d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\">(Source: Merck)</p>\n<p>...but the overall message here is that any growth managed by the company has been more or less offset by the effects of COVID-19 and more. Overall sales are absolutely flat YoY.</p>\n<p>However, Merck expects things to improve in lock-step with lightning of restrictions and return of normalcy.</p>\n<p>The company has given us 2021E guidance, and that guidance brings to mind the analyst expectations upon which, in part, my positive Merck thesis rests. The company has updated its 2021E guidance as of 1Q21, and this guidance closer matches where overall analyst expectations have been going for the past quarter.</p>\n<p>Revenue guidance is unchanged, with a slightly negative effect on margins due to COVID-19, as well as a slight drop in overall GAAP EPS, with an assumed <3% positive impact on non-GAAP EPS. Overall, the updated guidance very closely matches the previous one, further crystallizing the positive long-term thesis for the company.</p>\n<p>Merck also continues towards its planning of spinning off its Organon operations, containing its women's health & Biosimilars, which will trade on the NYSE under the OGN ticker as of June 3rd, in less than a month. Besides this spin-off, Merck's portfolio remains attractive and well-filled with appealing brands and products that the company has added over the past few years, as well as having ongoing cooperations with many smaller and larger companies.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7362a4b8cafbad663516c6b3e444a6bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\">(Source: Merck)</p>\n<p>The company's HIV development, for instance, is being facilitated through cooperation with Gilead(NASDAQ:GILD). The company has a strong 0-10+ year plan, which includes revenue growth, margins expansion and both inorganic and organic growth.</p>\n<p>The company expects to address more of its pipeline within the coming 5-10 years.</p>\n<p>I want to point out that despite the poor performance of the share for the past few months, the company's fundamentals and its dividend track record remain absolutely solid.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3be4580175b0af1aa18d1a18337d60f\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"268\">(Source: Merck)</p>\n<p>Two questions for Merck shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>First, what to do with any dividends, and the spin-off for shareholders of the new, traded company?</b></p>\n<p>The question is relevant since whenever a company spins off parts of its operations - in this case, 15% of Merck's revenue - the company's EPS available for dividends shrinks. Merck's dividend has a current NTM payout ratio of 38%, inclusive of the spin-off, which comes to really no worry at all given the dividend increases we've been seeing from Merck. Company EPS has been growing with impressive steps for the past 10 years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e264631bf0e140618715125e10b492\" tg-width=\"452\" tg-height=\"359\">(Source: SimplySafeDividends)</p>\n<p>Part of this is thanks to extensive company buybacks, but the company has also managed to grow sales by nearly $10B in less than 7 years, all the while posting class-leading operating margins north of 30%.</p>\n<p>EPS should decrease around 10-15% from the spin-off, and the current expectation is that the spin-off will have no material impact on either the company's dividend growth or its long-term payout ratio. The fact is that the company has already confirmed this in the latest earnings call - the company is not going to cut or lower the dividend, and will in fact grow it to a 47-50% payout ratio (Source: Merck Earnings Call, 2020)</p>\n<p>However, the assets that the company is spinning off aren't exactly the crown jewels. Back in 2020, the company expected revenue growth in Organon to flat to negative in 2021 due to loss of exclusivity for several drugs. Organon hopes to achieve single-digit annual revenue growth following this, but the accuracy of these expectations is yet to be put to the test.</p>\n<p>Naturally, the company is talking up the opportunities in women's health, including fertility drugs, contraceptives, and other things in the biosimilar segments, but these will only account for 30% of Organon's revenues as of the latest calculations.</p>\n<p>Further, as of the latest financial data, Merck expects to pull an $8-$9B tax-free dividend from Organon, which will add debt to the company's balance sheet.</p>\n<p>The conclusion here that I currently see is that the company is spinning off some of the weaker assets, and the starting position for the new company, its ability to generate earnings and shareholder returns seems somewhat muddled.</p>\n<p>Because of this, I personally wouldn't go ahead and just invest in Organon. The latest news is that the dividend received from Merck will be a special dividend paid out during June 2nd, 2021, which will be significant for me given my own $38,000+ Merck position. Every Merck share will entitle the holder to 1/10th of one Organon share in the form of cash.</p>\n<p>Reasons for this? Lack of overall current visibility of earnings growth, a high potential leverage from the get-go (3-4X to EBITDA), potential margin issues to mention a few. Lack of knowledge and visibility, in the end, is enough for me to put my money elsewhere.</p>\n<p><b>Secondly, and as some other authors have alluded to, there's a potential problem for Merck here</b></p>\n<p>As any company that spins off part of its business, this transaction will weaken Merck's portfolio, which will become even more dependent on a few drugs. Three of its current blockbusters account to almost 40% of its revenues. Keytruda is growing for the treatment of lung cancers as well as other, and now almost represents a quarter of the company's sales. So for better or worse, for the foreseeable future, Merck will be very dependent on Keytruda until it loses patent protection in the year of 2028.</p>\n<p>This puts the demand on Merck to continue to build its drug portfolio to help soften the blow here. The $8-$9B from Organon will certainly serve to add some cushioning to the company's already strong liquidity profile, and also to build its R&D further, even if the way to get the funding is essentially cutting off part of its own body.</p>\n<p>However - my view on Merck's existing portfolio is a positive one.</p>\n<p>There's continued cash flow, strong cash flow, expected from the company's portfolio, and the current patent protection gives us 7 years for Keytruda, 7 years for Gardasil, and 1-2 years for Januvia, which is around 7% for the company's sales.</p>\n<p>I expect that based on these trends, and the company's strong R&D, the company will remain a strong business with safe trends for the next few years. It's AA-rated, with excellent leverage. Merck has announced that the dividend from Organon will be used for buybacks, not for inorganic growth or increasing the dividend.</p>\n<p>So, my conclusion is - don't buy Organon, invest the money in Merck or elsewhere at this time.</p>\n<p>Let's look at the valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Merck - What is the valuation?</b></p>\n<p>Merck's valuation continues to be one of the primary arguments for investing in the business. The current valuation trends clearly lag the company's reported and expected earnings trends.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a81094c586691cb558dbc51e25c42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\">(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs)</p>\n<p>History shows us that Merck can trade at depressed valuations for very extended periods of time - several years, only to normalize despite only modest earnings growth during reversal. Over the past year, the company hasn't appreciated to fair value, despite significantly growing earnings and expecting to grow them even further.</p>\n<p>The fact is, the undervaluation we see now is in the face of both the company's fundamentals, its valuation, analyst targets, expectations, and trends.</p>\n<p>The upside for this AA-rated giant is significant, coming in at around 16.5% annually to even a 15.5X P/E ratio, based on an average annual growth rate of 8.5% in terms of EPS. Eve trading essentially flat at 12.4X from today's 12.91X average P/E ratio, the upside to 2024E results is just north of 10% per year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0dd03966c5ace7335c72089554f594\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\">(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs)</p>\n<p>How likely are these targets? Let us just say that Merck has never failed to hit its analyst marks for the past 10 years, with a 10% Margin of error, making the company's targets if not guaranteed, at least very likely based on historical target accuracy.</p>\n<p>So what exactly is the downside here? Why is the company not reversing? A few notes. One of the reasons is likely to be the aforementioned spin-off, which has a tendency to worry certain investors as it's an uncertainty for Merck, despite the company having clarified its dividend ambitions.</p>\n<p>Another note that analysts that are more mellowed with regards to this company is the overreliance on Keytruda and other blockbuster drugs, which make up a significant portion of this company's revenues. 57% of total revenues are from six drugs alone, and these drugs are facing competition.</p>\n<p>However, historically, Merck has always been able to outperform and keep its EPS growth rate steady. There's very little reason the company should be unable to do the same in the long term here. The argument that Merck faces increased competition should, in my opinion, be seen as a fairly standard argument able to be made on the basis of any pharmaceutical company with blockbuster drugs facing competition. Not including in consideration the company's historical performance in these questions is to ignore the company's fundamental strengths.</p>\n<p>I consider the upside here to be very clear, and established both in fundamentals, history, forecasts, and analysis accuracy.</p>\n<p>Analyst targets reflect this upside as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05589bb9d69a6dd3e7cd792e8f10fb9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"97\">(Source: S&P Global, Google Sheets)</p>\n<p>Even S&P Global analysts see an upside of nearly 20% of this company at current price levels.</p>\n<p>There is, simply put, very little to suggest that the company would have poor prospects to outperform over the coming few years.</p>\n<p>How to invest in Merck</p>\n<p><b>Option 1 - Long-term investment</b></p>\n<p>Merck's common share is where I consider an investment wise at this particular point in time. The common share offers upsides of over 15-20% to both forward estimates, current targets, and historical valuation levels.</p>\n<p>While puts are possible, I view the common shares as the most appealing way for a conservative dividend investor to invest in the company.</p>\n<p><b>Option 2 - Selling cash-secured puts</b></p>\n<p>Selling cash-covered put options is another good way to make money off a company while waiting for it to drop further and making money until then. Because of the company's position, and a lower price being even more appealing, this could make it perfect for a nice put.</p>\n<p>As of writing this article, I was able to find the following put.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94af35f617e432741927d6e29436485\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"382\">(Source: Author's Data, Google Sheets, Option data from IBKR/Yahoo Finance)</p>\n<p>This is a good put. The company hasn't traded at such levels for some time, and undervaluation at strike price is appealing. The capital outlay is relatively limited, though still well above $5000/contract, and the annualized yield of 6.22% is fairly good for Merck. The only drawback is the time - nearly 20 days until the contract expires.</p>\n<p>Given that I prefer to invest in the common share, you won't see me writing this put. I see a better overall upside in the common share. However, those of you wanting an option, this is a valid one, and not a bad one, as I see it.</p>\n<p><b>Option 3- Selling covered calls</b></p>\n<p>Covered calls are a no-go for me here. The available ones offer less than 2% annualized RoR for putting a position at risk for the chance of a very likely capital appreciation. The company just isn't in a good position for this sort of strategy.</p>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>I've been tilting my investment capital heavily towards healthcare & pharma for some months at this point, and I continue to do so. The appealing valuation and potential upsides in the investments speak for themselves. Merck is one of those potentials. Even if it's not the one with the highest upside - it's one with a very appealing conservative upside, and one trading well below 15X P/E, which I consider to be a fair value here.</p>\n<p>Because of this, conservative investors should take note of Merck as a potential investment for their portfolios. I don't advise anyone to aim for a larger position size than 3-4%, and my portfolio position in the company has now reached this size.</p>\n<p>For those of you not at such exposure, however, this is a potentially good opportunity. My five requirements for investment are as follows.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>This company is overall qualitative.</li>\n <li>This company is fundamentally safe/conservative & well-run.</li>\n <li>This company pays a well-covered dividend.</li>\n <li>This company is currently cheap.</li>\n <li>This company has realistic upside based on earnings growth or multiple expansion/reversion.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>All of these 5 requirements, as I see it, are fulfilled with Merck. The company gives investors what they should require from an investment, starting with fundamentals and dividend history, and moving to positive estimates, upsides, and forecast accuracy.</p>\n<p>I don't consider any of the risks to be significant enough to warrant not investing here, and consider Merck a 20% undervalued \"BUY\" with a significant upside.</p>\n<p>Thank you for reading.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Merck's Valuation Continues To Say 'BUY'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMerck's Valuation Continues To Say 'BUY'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 18:58 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430387-mercks-valuation-continues-to-say-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMerck is one of the largest positions in the pharmaceutical segment in my core portfolio. The company is currently at roughly no P/L in terms of ROIC.\nI expect Merck to appreciate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430387-mercks-valuation-continues-to-say-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRK":"默沙东"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430387-mercks-valuation-continues-to-say-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146351743","content_text":"Summary\n\nMerck is one of the largest positions in the pharmaceutical segment in my core portfolio. The company is currently at roughly no P/L in terms of ROIC.\nI expect Merck to appreciate significantly over the coming years thanks to EPS growth as well as dividend growth.\nThe company at current valuation is an excellent \"BUY\" with significant upside, even if there are some risks to the company at this point.\n\nMerck(NYSE:MRK)is one of my largest pharma/healthcare holdings in the entire portfolio, and for a very good reason. The company's valuation seen in relation to its historical multiples as well as realistic upsides and recent results show us a very positive sort of scenario with plenty of potential upsides.\nIn this article, we'll go through a few of the reasons why I still invest in the company, and why I consider it one of the (though not the) best investments you can make into the space today.\nMerck - How has the company been doing?\nMerck is a massive company, with a huge pipeline, a humongous portfolio, and impressive sales. Unfortunately, those impressive sales took a slight downward turn the last quarter, with the company reporting YoY declining sales and EPS, even if it's in fairly low numbers of -1% in sales, and -9% in non-GAAP EPS performance during the quarter.\nThe company continued to invest significant capital, $2.4B during 1Q20, in new development and paid out $1.6B in company dividends. The company also received some important approvals in Keytruda and oncology, as well as some positive results in HIV medication. The FDA approvedKeytrudafor use in certain types of cancer and heart failures, and there were positives news out of China and Japan as well.\nSegment-wise, Oncology is showing continued growth...\n(Source: Merck)\n...withKeytrudabeing the star of the show in terms of absolute volume, but Lynparza outdoing it in terms of growth. In terms of vaccines, Merck hasn't participated in the COVID-19 vaccine trends or production, which has impacted performance significantly here. The company is experiencing double-digit declines in both Gardasil and Pneumovax, the latter down 36% YoY in terms of sales.\nThese negatives trends, which are likely to persist somewhat, are weighed up by performance in hospitals, with Bridion sales up 11% or $340M YoY. The company also has its animal health segment, which is showing 15% YoY growth across the board, with companion sales increasing by 24% and livestock by 9%. This was a mix of animal intelligence products, parasiticides, and animal vaccines.\nA geographical YoY overview shows the company's weakness as a non-COVID 19 participant, with the exception of LATAM which went well...\n(Source: Merck)\n...but the overall message here is that any growth managed by the company has been more or less offset by the effects of COVID-19 and more. Overall sales are absolutely flat YoY.\nHowever, Merck expects things to improve in lock-step with lightning of restrictions and return of normalcy.\nThe company has given us 2021E guidance, and that guidance brings to mind the analyst expectations upon which, in part, my positive Merck thesis rests. The company has updated its 2021E guidance as of 1Q21, and this guidance closer matches where overall analyst expectations have been going for the past quarter.\nRevenue guidance is unchanged, with a slightly negative effect on margins due to COVID-19, as well as a slight drop in overall GAAP EPS, with an assumed <3% positive impact on non-GAAP EPS. Overall, the updated guidance very closely matches the previous one, further crystallizing the positive long-term thesis for the company.\nMerck also continues towards its planning of spinning off its Organon operations, containing its women's health & Biosimilars, which will trade on the NYSE under the OGN ticker as of June 3rd, in less than a month. Besides this spin-off, Merck's portfolio remains attractive and well-filled with appealing brands and products that the company has added over the past few years, as well as having ongoing cooperations with many smaller and larger companies.\n(Source: Merck)\nThe company's HIV development, for instance, is being facilitated through cooperation with Gilead(NASDAQ:GILD). The company has a strong 0-10+ year plan, which includes revenue growth, margins expansion and both inorganic and organic growth.\nThe company expects to address more of its pipeline within the coming 5-10 years.\nI want to point out that despite the poor performance of the share for the past few months, the company's fundamentals and its dividend track record remain absolutely solid.\n(Source: Merck)\nTwo questions for Merck shareholders.\nFirst, what to do with any dividends, and the spin-off for shareholders of the new, traded company?\nThe question is relevant since whenever a company spins off parts of its operations - in this case, 15% of Merck's revenue - the company's EPS available for dividends shrinks. Merck's dividend has a current NTM payout ratio of 38%, inclusive of the spin-off, which comes to really no worry at all given the dividend increases we've been seeing from Merck. Company EPS has been growing with impressive steps for the past 10 years.\n(Source: SimplySafeDividends)\nPart of this is thanks to extensive company buybacks, but the company has also managed to grow sales by nearly $10B in less than 7 years, all the while posting class-leading operating margins north of 30%.\nEPS should decrease around 10-15% from the spin-off, and the current expectation is that the spin-off will have no material impact on either the company's dividend growth or its long-term payout ratio. The fact is that the company has already confirmed this in the latest earnings call - the company is not going to cut or lower the dividend, and will in fact grow it to a 47-50% payout ratio (Source: Merck Earnings Call, 2020)\nHowever, the assets that the company is spinning off aren't exactly the crown jewels. Back in 2020, the company expected revenue growth in Organon to flat to negative in 2021 due to loss of exclusivity for several drugs. Organon hopes to achieve single-digit annual revenue growth following this, but the accuracy of these expectations is yet to be put to the test.\nNaturally, the company is talking up the opportunities in women's health, including fertility drugs, contraceptives, and other things in the biosimilar segments, but these will only account for 30% of Organon's revenues as of the latest calculations.\nFurther, as of the latest financial data, Merck expects to pull an $8-$9B tax-free dividend from Organon, which will add debt to the company's balance sheet.\nThe conclusion here that I currently see is that the company is spinning off some of the weaker assets, and the starting position for the new company, its ability to generate earnings and shareholder returns seems somewhat muddled.\nBecause of this, I personally wouldn't go ahead and just invest in Organon. The latest news is that the dividend received from Merck will be a special dividend paid out during June 2nd, 2021, which will be significant for me given my own $38,000+ Merck position. Every Merck share will entitle the holder to 1/10th of one Organon share in the form of cash.\nReasons for this? Lack of overall current visibility of earnings growth, a high potential leverage from the get-go (3-4X to EBITDA), potential margin issues to mention a few. Lack of knowledge and visibility, in the end, is enough for me to put my money elsewhere.\nSecondly, and as some other authors have alluded to, there's a potential problem for Merck here\nAs any company that spins off part of its business, this transaction will weaken Merck's portfolio, which will become even more dependent on a few drugs. Three of its current blockbusters account to almost 40% of its revenues. Keytruda is growing for the treatment of lung cancers as well as other, and now almost represents a quarter of the company's sales. So for better or worse, for the foreseeable future, Merck will be very dependent on Keytruda until it loses patent protection in the year of 2028.\nThis puts the demand on Merck to continue to build its drug portfolio to help soften the blow here. The $8-$9B from Organon will certainly serve to add some cushioning to the company's already strong liquidity profile, and also to build its R&D further, even if the way to get the funding is essentially cutting off part of its own body.\nHowever - my view on Merck's existing portfolio is a positive one.\nThere's continued cash flow, strong cash flow, expected from the company's portfolio, and the current patent protection gives us 7 years for Keytruda, 7 years for Gardasil, and 1-2 years for Januvia, which is around 7% for the company's sales.\nI expect that based on these trends, and the company's strong R&D, the company will remain a strong business with safe trends for the next few years. It's AA-rated, with excellent leverage. Merck has announced that the dividend from Organon will be used for buybacks, not for inorganic growth or increasing the dividend.\nSo, my conclusion is - don't buy Organon, invest the money in Merck or elsewhere at this time.\nLet's look at the valuation.\nMerck - What is the valuation?\nMerck's valuation continues to be one of the primary arguments for investing in the business. The current valuation trends clearly lag the company's reported and expected earnings trends.\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs)\nHistory shows us that Merck can trade at depressed valuations for very extended periods of time - several years, only to normalize despite only modest earnings growth during reversal. Over the past year, the company hasn't appreciated to fair value, despite significantly growing earnings and expecting to grow them even further.\nThe fact is, the undervaluation we see now is in the face of both the company's fundamentals, its valuation, analyst targets, expectations, and trends.\nThe upside for this AA-rated giant is significant, coming in at around 16.5% annually to even a 15.5X P/E ratio, based on an average annual growth rate of 8.5% in terms of EPS. Eve trading essentially flat at 12.4X from today's 12.91X average P/E ratio, the upside to 2024E results is just north of 10% per year.\n(Source: F.A.S.T Graphs)\nHow likely are these targets? Let us just say that Merck has never failed to hit its analyst marks for the past 10 years, with a 10% Margin of error, making the company's targets if not guaranteed, at least very likely based on historical target accuracy.\nSo what exactly is the downside here? Why is the company not reversing? A few notes. One of the reasons is likely to be the aforementioned spin-off, which has a tendency to worry certain investors as it's an uncertainty for Merck, despite the company having clarified its dividend ambitions.\nAnother note that analysts that are more mellowed with regards to this company is the overreliance on Keytruda and other blockbuster drugs, which make up a significant portion of this company's revenues. 57% of total revenues are from six drugs alone, and these drugs are facing competition.\nHowever, historically, Merck has always been able to outperform and keep its EPS growth rate steady. There's very little reason the company should be unable to do the same in the long term here. The argument that Merck faces increased competition should, in my opinion, be seen as a fairly standard argument able to be made on the basis of any pharmaceutical company with blockbuster drugs facing competition. Not including in consideration the company's historical performance in these questions is to ignore the company's fundamental strengths.\nI consider the upside here to be very clear, and established both in fundamentals, history, forecasts, and analysis accuracy.\nAnalyst targets reflect this upside as well.\n(Source: S&P Global, Google Sheets)\nEven S&P Global analysts see an upside of nearly 20% of this company at current price levels.\nThere is, simply put, very little to suggest that the company would have poor prospects to outperform over the coming few years.\nHow to invest in Merck\nOption 1 - Long-term investment\nMerck's common share is where I consider an investment wise at this particular point in time. The common share offers upsides of over 15-20% to both forward estimates, current targets, and historical valuation levels.\nWhile puts are possible, I view the common shares as the most appealing way for a conservative dividend investor to invest in the company.\nOption 2 - Selling cash-secured puts\nSelling cash-covered put options is another good way to make money off a company while waiting for it to drop further and making money until then. Because of the company's position, and a lower price being even more appealing, this could make it perfect for a nice put.\nAs of writing this article, I was able to find the following put.\n(Source: Author's Data, Google Sheets, Option data from IBKR/Yahoo Finance)\nThis is a good put. The company hasn't traded at such levels for some time, and undervaluation at strike price is appealing. The capital outlay is relatively limited, though still well above $5000/contract, and the annualized yield of 6.22% is fairly good for Merck. The only drawback is the time - nearly 20 days until the contract expires.\nGiven that I prefer to invest in the common share, you won't see me writing this put. I see a better overall upside in the common share. However, those of you wanting an option, this is a valid one, and not a bad one, as I see it.\nOption 3- Selling covered calls\nCovered calls are a no-go for me here. The available ones offer less than 2% annualized RoR for putting a position at risk for the chance of a very likely capital appreciation. The company just isn't in a good position for this sort of strategy.\nThesis\nI've been tilting my investment capital heavily towards healthcare & pharma for some months at this point, and I continue to do so. The appealing valuation and potential upsides in the investments speak for themselves. Merck is one of those potentials. Even if it's not the one with the highest upside - it's one with a very appealing conservative upside, and one trading well below 15X P/E, which I consider to be a fair value here.\nBecause of this, conservative investors should take note of Merck as a potential investment for their portfolios. I don't advise anyone to aim for a larger position size than 3-4%, and my portfolio position in the company has now reached this size.\nFor those of you not at such exposure, however, this is a potentially good opportunity. My five requirements for investment are as follows.\n\nThis company is overall qualitative.\nThis company is fundamentally safe/conservative & well-run.\nThis company pays a well-covered dividend.\nThis company is currently cheap.\nThis company has realistic upside based on earnings growth or multiple expansion/reversion.\n\nAll of these 5 requirements, as I see it, are fulfilled with Merck. The company gives investors what they should require from an investment, starting with fundamentals and dividend history, and moving to positive estimates, upsides, and forecast accuracy.\nI don't consider any of the risks to be significant enough to warrant not investing here, and consider Merck a 20% undervalued \"BUY\" with a significant upside.\nThank you for reading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/139116526"}
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