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2021-05-25

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AMC Entertainment Stock Is Still Well Below Its Inherent True Value

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It expects people to come back to the movie theatersen masse. I wrote aboutthis several weeks agowhen AMC stock was at $9.51 on May 7. I forecast that, based on historical numbers and the company’s guidance, it could be worth $6.89 billion or $15.38 per share. I still think that, but my new target is at least $15.88 per share and possibly as high as $17.20.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fd861fba44424fcd783b888f212d3d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: QualityHD / Shutterstock.com\nThis is based on a forecast of $8.52 billion in market value, or 31.48% higher market value than today’s $6.48 billion market capitalization. In other words, 1.3148 times $12.08 (the AMC stock price as of May 21) is equal to $15.88 per share.\nValuing AMC Entertainment\nHow did I arrive at the $8.52 billion market value? Simple. I used the following method. I estimated that free cash flow (FCF) would reach $426 million by 2023, if not earlier. Then using a 5% FCF yield metric (i.e., $426 million / 0.05) I arrived at a market value of $8.52 billion.\nSo, how did I estimate the $426 million in forecast FCF? That is also simple.Seeking Alpha’spoll of analysts shows that they estimate 2023 revenue will be $5.19 billion, up from $4.79 billion in 2022 and $2.79 billion in 2021. I used an FCF margin rate of 8.22% to derive the $4.26 million estimate (i.e., $5.19 billion in revenue x 8.22%&nbsp; = $426 million).\nSo now I know you will ask me, how did I estimate the 8.22% FCF margin rate? That is actually a little more complicated. First, I used statements from management about their forecasts for 2022 cash flow and capital expenditure. These statements led me to believe that 2022 FCF would be $263 million.\nMy 2022 revenue estimate was $3.2 billion, based on an 11.5% cash flow margin, $125 million capex results in $263 million. This is 8.22% of $3.2 billion.\nSo that is how I estimate that AMC stock is worth $8.52 billion or $15.88 per share. But I want to point out something very important.\nMy complicated analysis for 2022 revenue results in a forecast of just $3.2 billion. But analysts followed bySeeking Alphaestimate revenue will be significantly higher than this at $4.79 billion. This is 50% higher than my estimate.\nSo, using this revenue, the FCF margin would be 8.89%. That would raise the 2023 FCF estimate to $461 million, and the target value to $9.227 billion, 42.4% higher or $17.20.\nWhat To Do With AMC Stock\nIf you followed all of that the conclusion is that AMC stock is worth between $15.88 and as high as $17.20. This is 18% to 28% higher than today’s price of $13.42.\nBut this scenario could take up to 2 years to reach that price based on my assessment of 2022 and 2023 revenue. In other words, if AMC stock spikes up and reaches these prices fairly soon, I would take profits and move on. This is possible if the market likes what it sees in terms of summer and fall audience movie participation and the company’s results.\nThe idea is this if AMC stock pops in anticipation of higher revenue and profits and it reaches these price levels, sell it and wait for another opportunity. It is always possible there could be another chance to buy back in at today’s low prices.\nAnalysts don’t tend to agree with me. For example,TipRanks&nbsp;indicates that 6 analysts have an averageprice target of just $7.13 per share. This is 46% below today’s price.\nBut look at this: When I wrote about AMC stock on May 10, theTipRanksaverage target then was just $4.44. So they are slowly paying catchup with AMC stock, which has risen over 37% since my last article. So far they have been wrong about the stock.\nOn the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a long or short position in any of the securities in this article.The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.comPublishing Guidelines.","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment Stock Is Still Well Below Its Inherent True Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment Stock Is Still Well Below Its Inherent True Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-25 14:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/05/amc-stock-is-still-well-below-its-inherent-true-value/>InvestorPlace</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAMC stock is worth at least $15.88 and possibly as high as $17.20.\n\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is facing a big summer and fall. It expects people to come back to the movie theatersen masse. I wrote ...\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/amc-stock-is-still-well-below-its-inherent-true-value/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/amc-stock-is-still-well-below-its-inherent-true-value/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195312746","content_text":"AMC stock is worth at least $15.88 and possibly as high as $17.20.\n\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is facing a big summer and fall. It expects people to come back to the movie theatersen masse. I wrote aboutthis several weeks agowhen AMC stock was at $9.51 on May 7. I forecast that, based on historical numbers and the company’s guidance, it could be worth $6.89 billion or $15.38 per share. I still think that, but my new target is at least $15.88 per share and possibly as high as $17.20.\nSource: QualityHD / Shutterstock.com\nThis is based on a forecast of $8.52 billion in market value, or 31.48% higher market value than today’s $6.48 billion market capitalization. In other words, 1.3148 times $12.08 (the AMC stock price as of May 21) is equal to $15.88 per share.\nValuing AMC Entertainment\nHow did I arrive at the $8.52 billion market value? Simple. I used the following method. I estimated that free cash flow (FCF) would reach $426 million by 2023, if not earlier. Then using a 5% FCF yield metric (i.e., $426 million / 0.05) I arrived at a market value of $8.52 billion.\nSo, how did I estimate the $426 million in forecast FCF? That is also simple.Seeking Alpha’spoll of analysts shows that they estimate 2023 revenue will be $5.19 billion, up from $4.79 billion in 2022 and $2.79 billion in 2021. I used an FCF margin rate of 8.22% to derive the $4.26 million estimate (i.e., $5.19 billion in revenue x 8.22%  = $426 million).\nSo now I know you will ask me, how did I estimate the 8.22% FCF margin rate? That is actually a little more complicated. First, I used statements from management about their forecasts for 2022 cash flow and capital expenditure. These statements led me to believe that 2022 FCF would be $263 million.\nMy 2022 revenue estimate was $3.2 billion, based on an 11.5% cash flow margin, $125 million capex results in $263 million. This is 8.22% of $3.2 billion.\nSo that is how I estimate that AMC stock is worth $8.52 billion or $15.88 per share. But I want to point out something very important.\nMy complicated analysis for 2022 revenue results in a forecast of just $3.2 billion. But analysts followed bySeeking Alphaestimate revenue will be significantly higher than this at $4.79 billion. This is 50% higher than my estimate.\nSo, using this revenue, the FCF margin would be 8.89%. That would raise the 2023 FCF estimate to $461 million, and the target value to $9.227 billion, 42.4% higher or $17.20.\nWhat To Do With AMC Stock\nIf you followed all of that the conclusion is that AMC stock is worth between $15.88 and as high as $17.20. This is 18% to 28% higher than today’s price of $13.42.\nBut this scenario could take up to 2 years to reach that price based on my assessment of 2022 and 2023 revenue. In other words, if AMC stock spikes up and reaches these prices fairly soon, I would take profits and move on. This is possible if the market likes what it sees in terms of summer and fall audience movie participation and the company’s results.\nThe idea is this if AMC stock pops in anticipation of higher revenue and profits and it reaches these price levels, sell it and wait for another opportunity. It is always possible there could be another chance to buy back in at today’s low prices.\nAnalysts don’t tend to agree with me. For example,TipRanks indicates that 6 analysts have an averageprice target of just $7.13 per share. This is 46% below today’s price.\nBut look at this: When I wrote about AMC stock on May 10, theTipRanksaverage target then was just $4.44. So they are slowly paying catchup with AMC stock, which has risen over 37% since my last article. So far they have been wrong about the stock.\nOn the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a long or short position in any of the securities in this article.The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.comPublishing Guidelines.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/138852789"}