星辰大海matthew
2021-05-25
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Roblox深度报告:Metaverse第一股,元宇宙引领者
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21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Roblox深度报告:Metaverse第一股,元宇宙引领者","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199482586","media":" 风研海外","summary":"核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人:全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起,让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏,提供一个想","content":"<p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人</b>:全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起,让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏,提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。</p><p><b>高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升</b>:Roblox如何做到?</p><p><b>UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应</b></p><p>成长逻辑:</p><p><b>●DAU增长</b>,1)核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长;2)欧美以外的市场渗透率持续提升;<b>ARPU增长</b>,1)时间黏性+优质内容生态扩张驱动单用户收益提升;2)平均年龄提升提高付费水平</p><p><b>●DAU/流水预测:</b>保守预期下,25E DAU 8910万,同比增速15.3%,20-25E年CAGR 22.4%;25E 流水71.6亿美金,同比增长17.6%,20-25E年CAGR 30.6%;25E ABPDAU 80.3美金,同比增长2%。</p><p>第二增长曲线:</p><p>●1)<b>中国市场开发,25E有2.5亿-7.4亿Ebitda空间</b>。25E在核心用户TAM渗透率达到5%,对应1200万DAU,和$80.3 ABPDAU,对应9.7亿美金收入。</p><p>●2)<b>广告空间</b>,保守预期下,Roblox每小时广告收入$0.03,为社交媒体平均的1/5,对应<b>22亿广告收入,8.9亿广告Ebitda</b>;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为2289,增长幅度63.2%,利润率为24.4%。中性预期下,Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05,为社交媒体平均40%,对应<b>44亿广告收入,17.7亿广告Ebitda</b>;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为3175,增长幅度126.3%,利润率为33.9%。</p><p>●<b>以CPM验证广告空间</b>:保守预期下,Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24,为社交媒体平均60% (考虑到使用时长和用户黏性,我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均),对应<b>21.7亿广告收入,8.7亿广告Ebitda</b>;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为22.7,增长幅度61.9%,利润率为24.2%。</p><p><b><i>风险提示:内容生态构筑风险;未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险;测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1)变现能力提升不及预期2)用户扩张不及预期;第二增长曲线不及预期– 1)中国市场发展缓慢2)广告商业化进度缓慢</i></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa2c8053a9ecb678f3a58c338dc50b9\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1752f87b813ecdc11e16caede086abfb\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff2e3bca2bf7ef8f115bf1c93452047\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a014dbd744e7db4af8375a141182bb9f\" tg-width=\"1021\" 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3D游戏,提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升:Roblox如何做到?UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑:●DAU增长,1)核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长;2)欧美...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140fc6c1463a498e65d516de4ff7fe68","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MOwtFbDJfT4yEVjyVQcvSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199482586","content_text":"核心观点Roblox:游戏UGC平台的先驱者和领头人:全球最大的互动社区之一及大型多人游戏创作平台。通过游戏将全世界连接在一起,让任何人都能探索全球社区开发者建立的数千万个沉浸式 3D游戏,提供一个想象、创造以及与朋友同乐的空间。高活跃度+高沉浸时长+稳定付费率提升:Roblox如何做到?UGC内容生态+社交属性构筑双飞轮效应成长逻辑:●DAU增长,1)核心用户5-24岁渗透率持续增长;2)欧美以外的市场渗透率持续提升;ARPU增长,1)时间黏性+优质内容生态扩张驱动单用户收益提升;2)平均年龄提升提高付费水平●DAU/流水预测:保守预期下,25E DAU 8910万,同比增速15.3%,20-25E年CAGR 22.4%;25E 流水71.6亿美金,同比增长17.6%,20-25E年CAGR 30.6%;25E ABPDAU 80.3美金,同比增长2%。第二增长曲线:●1)中国市场开发,25E有2.5亿-7.4亿Ebitda空间。25E在核心用户TAM渗透率达到5%,对应1200万DAU,和$80.3 ABPDAU,对应9.7亿美金收入。●2)广告空间,保守预期下,Roblox每小时广告收入$0.03,为社交媒体平均的1/5,对应22亿广告收入,8.9亿广告Ebitda;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为2289,增长幅度63.2%,利润率为24.4%。中性预期下,Roblox每小时广告收入$0.05,为社交媒体平均40%,对应44亿广告收入,17.7亿广告Ebitda;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为3175,增长幅度126.3%,利润率为33.9%。●以CPM验证广告空间:保守预期下,Roblox CPM平均收费为$4.24,为社交媒体平均60% (考虑到使用时长和用户黏性,我们认为真实CPM收费会高于社交媒体平均),对应21.7亿广告收入,8.7亿广告Ebitda;算上广告第二增长曲线后,25E Ebitda为22.7,增长幅度61.9%,利润率为24.2%。风险提示:内容生态构筑风险;未来UGC游戏平台面临竞争风险;测算DAU或ABPDAU增长不及预期- 1)变现能力提升不及预期2)用户扩张不及预期;第二增长曲线不及预期– 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