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2021-05-23

Time in mkt not time the mkt

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":133191004,"tweetId":"133191004","gmtCreate":1621724685008,"gmtModify":1631885486503,"author":{"id":3569807126010989,"idStr":"3569807126010989","authorId":3569807126010989,"authorIdStr":"3569807126010989","name":"happymoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b835f693b89bd9b980cc013a40c669","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":36,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Time in mkt not time the mkt</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Time in mkt not time the mkt</body></html>","text":"Time in mkt not time the mkt","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133191004","repostId":1199252374,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199252374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621586178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199252374?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 16:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Is It Time To Buy The Weakness?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199252374","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple pointed to some potential higher sequential revenue declines for the current Q3 that ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple pointed to some potential higher sequential revenue declines for the current Q3 that could amount to an impact of ~$3-4 billion.</li>\n <li>Weaknesses in China's smartphone sales and some persistence of supply constraints for the Mac/iPad could make the impact slightly larger than expected.</li>\n <li>However, long-term trends within service revenue growth, consistent product refreshes and rumored product entries reinforce a positive stance.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b75be7034857efd886eb4d11828a4ac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Shubhashish5/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has found support twice along its 200-day moving average in the past seven days as tech has felt some selling pressure recently, while strong demand tailwinds for products like the Mac and iPad persist. However, iPhone checks in China amid a broader smartphone decline don't look too promising for the geographic segment at the moment, and could exacerbate some of the expected declines for revenues alongside iPhone supply-demand balances. With half of the fiscal Q3 remaining, more of the focus now lies within potential spots of weakness as other drivers remain largely unchanged.\nPotential Weaknesses\nWhile Apple had a&nbsp;strong Q2 report, the company did point out certain factors that are likely to impact seasonal declines in revenues for the current fiscal Q3, while smartphone checks in China do not look to most positive to kick off the quarter.\nQ3's current consensus estimates of $1.00 EPS on $72.9 billion in revenue could be threatened by a few key factors, such as:\nGross margins: Apple posted a somewhat unexpected jump to a 42.5% margin during the quarter, which stemmed from \"cost savings, a strong mix and favorable foreign exchange.\" Historical gross margin has failed to break 40%, and although gross margin could hold above 40% during the remainder of the fiscal year from product mix, some of the seasonal volume impacts within the iPhone on top of sequentially lower revenues (discussed below) could reduce some leverage. Higher base pricing and higher ASPs for products, such as the Pro models, and growth in high-margin subscriptions are some factors that can offset these weaknesses.\nSequential revenue impacts: Apple already outlined during Q2's conference call that the seasonal/sequential revenue declines for Q3 are expected to be higher this year than the past two. Luca Maestri did clarify that sequential declines are likely to the tune of $3-4 billion for Q3 due to achievement of supply-demand balance for the iPhone in Q2 and supply constraints, likely stemming from the semiconductor shortage, while possibly weaker China iPhone sales could elevate the adverse impact.\nSupply constraints are no stranger to Apple, with the iPhone 12 seeing some constraints from main supplier TSMC (TSM) back in&nbsp;November&nbsp;with a need for 30-40% more chips to enable 5G and more; this time, the supply constraints are primarily affecting the Mac and iPad. Demand for the two remains elevated, so the supply impacts during the new product cycle for the M1-powered Mac and iPad Pro could persist into Q4, of which would have a higher adverse impact to revenues from a prolonged duration.\nChina smartphone sales and iPhone checks are not the most positive, and a weaker-than-expected quarter of sales could affect both the top-line and bottom-line for Q3, given the geography's contribution to operating income with the highest operating margin. Apple's calendar Q1 shipment share (company's FQ2) dropped to 13% as domestic competitors OPPO and vivo took nearly 50% share combined as the two grew much faster than the remaining OEMs.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc23ef459dbed2db3372c60e552c70b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\">Graphic fromCounterpoint\nPaulo Santos pointed out that the iPhone saw a growth slowdown in March, and another&nbsp;slowdown in April,to a ~27% y/y drop in the face of a difficult iPhone SE2-boosted comp. However, Apple did gain a slight degree of market share for the month as the market contracted substantially; Paulo sees that May 2021 could prove another challenging month and another decline, setting Q3 up for a decline.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea57a85409196e37a9a738f17494e15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Graphic fromCAICT\nThe Chinese smartphone market declined 34.1% y/y from 41.7 million to 27.5 million units, and down nearly 25% from&nbsp;April 2019's&nbsp;36.5 million, representing quite a large slowdown for the month. 5G models dominated the market at nearly 78% of total shipments, up from 39.3%&nbsp;a year ago. Both 2020 and 2019 showed sequential declines from May through July, and 2021 is likely to show a similar dynamic, as these months typically have less holiday-spurred selling compared to November (Single's Day) and January/Feb. (New Year). A weaker overall market in May, of which could persist through June, would cement in Paulo's thesis for a weak May and Q3, while also likely dragging down segment revenues - Apple's China revenues were just +2% y/y from FY19 to FY20 for Q3, with overall market shipments near the same volume; if volumes this year come up lower, revenues could fail to impress.\nIn a longer-term outlook, Apple faces some weakness in the year following an upgrade supercycle (FY15/16 for the 6, FY18/19 for the 8/X), this time with the iPhone 12/5G. Historical revenue trends for those years were poor, and Apple could see underwhelming revenue and EPS performance in FY22 relative to typical growth rates between 5-8% for both metrics. While gross margin could see a return back down to 39-39.5% in FY22 from the dissipation of iPhone supercycle demand in China/US, the quick growth of high-margin services over the long-run, i.e. FY24 and beyond, should start to drive gross margin towards the mid-40% range. The outcome of the Epic trial could prove challenging if Epic receives a favorable outcome, as Apple could be pressured to reduce commissions, which would impact both revenues and net income as commissions are primarily pure profit.\nThe Strengths Still Remain\nAside from some near-term weaknesses, Apple's strengths remain in play, with some outlined below.\nApple still sees&nbsp;strong checks in Mac and iPad demand, with pick-up options available for the M1-powered Macs with longer battery life and the iPad Pro starting&nbsp;this weekend&nbsp;at retail locations. These two productions have not yet been recognized in quarterly results due to launch timing, and Apple is seeing \"strong first-time buyers on the Mac …run[ning] just south of 50%, and \"in China… it's more around two-thirds.\" This implies that even with the supply-side issues, revenue generation and growth spurred by the new products could be strong for the quarter.\nRelaxation of restrictionsin a more vaccinated environment paves the way for more foot traffic as 99% of Apple's retail locations are open. iPhone sales in branded and carrier stores could have been adversely impacted from less traffic and work-from-home/shop-online trends. Stores and face-to-face interactions with customers also provides more potential for upselling to services such as Apple Care and more, which can provide a small boost to service revenues immediately while aiding the long-term growth of the segment from more paid subscribers, which is nearing 700 million, with services like Apple Music having over 70 million and Apple TV over 40 million. New offerings like the rumored HiFi music could secure more subscriptions against competing services like Spotify (SPOT).\nContinual service revenue growth&nbsp;is one of the largest long-term positives for Apple, as the segment boasts the highest gross margin at 70%. Apple has a broad service ecosystem, and the strong product demand witnessed through Q2 in all categories provides a tailwind for bundles like Apple One; this could provide a multi-quarter timeline of high-growth for services. Revenues for the segment are still one-third of iPhone, the largest single contributor, but services are still on a solid growth trajectory, one that could see the segment generate up to $80 billion annually by 2023 while contributing substantially to gross profit and net income.\nApple's&nbsp;ability to innovate&nbsp;and constantly produce new products that are met with high demand across all product lines, from computers to phones to headphones and more, should never be overlooked. The company released AirTags and a new Apple TV 4K in April alongside the Mac and iPad refresh, with a lineup of refreshed, cheaper AirPods 3 and Pro redesign, more Mac and iPad changes&nbsp;rumored&nbsp;for 2021, while later years could see Apple unveil AR glasses, an autonomous car and a foldable iPhone. Apple constantly finds new ways to spark repeat interactions with similar products in short time frames (i.e. AirPods), and keep customers inside its ecosystem, increasing monetization potential from both products and services. At the bottom line, Apple has not failed to find new segments to monetize at scale, and whether the future holds cars, augmented reality, completed redesigned iPhones, Apple looks poised to succeed in nearly any market it chooses to enter.\nOverall\nAfter the strong Q2 report, Apple heads into its seasonally weakest quarter, and faces some weaknesses in its ongoing supply constraints for high-demand Mac and iPad models as well as within a weaker Chinese smartphone market emerging during April. FY22 revenues and earnings could also fail to reach typical annual growth rates as historical revenues have proved lackluster following large iPhone upgrade cycles. However, Apple's innovative strength and ability to monetize nearly any segment it enters at scale, combined with service growth and persistent demand for most products gives a neutral near-term stance as Apple hit a double retest of its 200-day moving average but a more bullish long-term stance as buybacks continue to increase share price appreciation alongside these stated factors.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Is It Time To Buy The Weakness?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Is It Time To Buy The Weakness?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 16:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430207-apple-is-it-time-to-buy-the-weakness>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple pointed to some potential higher sequential revenue declines for the current Q3 that could amount to an impact of ~$3-4 billion.\nWeaknesses in China's smartphone sales and some ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430207-apple-is-it-time-to-buy-the-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430207-apple-is-it-time-to-buy-the-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199252374","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple pointed to some potential higher sequential revenue declines for the current Q3 that could amount to an impact of ~$3-4 billion.\nWeaknesses in China's smartphone sales and some persistence of supply constraints for the Mac/iPad could make the impact slightly larger than expected.\nHowever, long-term trends within service revenue growth, consistent product refreshes and rumored product entries reinforce a positive stance.\n\nPhoto by Shubhashish5/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has found support twice along its 200-day moving average in the past seven days as tech has felt some selling pressure recently, while strong demand tailwinds for products like the Mac and iPad persist. However, iPhone checks in China amid a broader smartphone decline don't look too promising for the geographic segment at the moment, and could exacerbate some of the expected declines for revenues alongside iPhone supply-demand balances. With half of the fiscal Q3 remaining, more of the focus now lies within potential spots of weakness as other drivers remain largely unchanged.\nPotential Weaknesses\nWhile Apple had a strong Q2 report, the company did point out certain factors that are likely to impact seasonal declines in revenues for the current fiscal Q3, while smartphone checks in China do not look to most positive to kick off the quarter.\nQ3's current consensus estimates of $1.00 EPS on $72.9 billion in revenue could be threatened by a few key factors, such as:\nGross margins: Apple posted a somewhat unexpected jump to a 42.5% margin during the quarter, which stemmed from \"cost savings, a strong mix and favorable foreign exchange.\" Historical gross margin has failed to break 40%, and although gross margin could hold above 40% during the remainder of the fiscal year from product mix, some of the seasonal volume impacts within the iPhone on top of sequentially lower revenues (discussed below) could reduce some leverage. Higher base pricing and higher ASPs for products, such as the Pro models, and growth in high-margin subscriptions are some factors that can offset these weaknesses.\nSequential revenue impacts: Apple already outlined during Q2's conference call that the seasonal/sequential revenue declines for Q3 are expected to be higher this year than the past two. Luca Maestri did clarify that sequential declines are likely to the tune of $3-4 billion for Q3 due to achievement of supply-demand balance for the iPhone in Q2 and supply constraints, likely stemming from the semiconductor shortage, while possibly weaker China iPhone sales could elevate the adverse impact.\nSupply constraints are no stranger to Apple, with the iPhone 12 seeing some constraints from main supplier TSMC (TSM) back in November with a need for 30-40% more chips to enable 5G and more; this time, the supply constraints are primarily affecting the Mac and iPad. Demand for the two remains elevated, so the supply impacts during the new product cycle for the M1-powered Mac and iPad Pro could persist into Q4, of which would have a higher adverse impact to revenues from a prolonged duration.\nChina smartphone sales and iPhone checks are not the most positive, and a weaker-than-expected quarter of sales could affect both the top-line and bottom-line for Q3, given the geography's contribution to operating income with the highest operating margin. Apple's calendar Q1 shipment share (company's FQ2) dropped to 13% as domestic competitors OPPO and vivo took nearly 50% share combined as the two grew much faster than the remaining OEMs.\nGraphic fromCounterpoint\nPaulo Santos pointed out that the iPhone saw a growth slowdown in March, and another slowdown in April,to a ~27% y/y drop in the face of a difficult iPhone SE2-boosted comp. However, Apple did gain a slight degree of market share for the month as the market contracted substantially; Paulo sees that May 2021 could prove another challenging month and another decline, setting Q3 up for a decline.\nGraphic fromCAICT\nThe Chinese smartphone market declined 34.1% y/y from 41.7 million to 27.5 million units, and down nearly 25% from April 2019's 36.5 million, representing quite a large slowdown for the month. 5G models dominated the market at nearly 78% of total shipments, up from 39.3% a year ago. Both 2020 and 2019 showed sequential declines from May through July, and 2021 is likely to show a similar dynamic, as these months typically have less holiday-spurred selling compared to November (Single's Day) and January/Feb. (New Year). A weaker overall market in May, of which could persist through June, would cement in Paulo's thesis for a weak May and Q3, while also likely dragging down segment revenues - Apple's China revenues were just +2% y/y from FY19 to FY20 for Q3, with overall market shipments near the same volume; if volumes this year come up lower, revenues could fail to impress.\nIn a longer-term outlook, Apple faces some weakness in the year following an upgrade supercycle (FY15/16 for the 6, FY18/19 for the 8/X), this time with the iPhone 12/5G. Historical revenue trends for those years were poor, and Apple could see underwhelming revenue and EPS performance in FY22 relative to typical growth rates between 5-8% for both metrics. While gross margin could see a return back down to 39-39.5% in FY22 from the dissipation of iPhone supercycle demand in China/US, the quick growth of high-margin services over the long-run, i.e. FY24 and beyond, should start to drive gross margin towards the mid-40% range. The outcome of the Epic trial could prove challenging if Epic receives a favorable outcome, as Apple could be pressured to reduce commissions, which would impact both revenues and net income as commissions are primarily pure profit.\nThe Strengths Still Remain\nAside from some near-term weaknesses, Apple's strengths remain in play, with some outlined below.\nApple still sees strong checks in Mac and iPad demand, with pick-up options available for the M1-powered Macs with longer battery life and the iPad Pro starting this weekend at retail locations. These two productions have not yet been recognized in quarterly results due to launch timing, and Apple is seeing \"strong first-time buyers on the Mac …run[ning] just south of 50%, and \"in China… it's more around two-thirds.\" This implies that even with the supply-side issues, revenue generation and growth spurred by the new products could be strong for the quarter.\nRelaxation of restrictionsin a more vaccinated environment paves the way for more foot traffic as 99% of Apple's retail locations are open. iPhone sales in branded and carrier stores could have been adversely impacted from less traffic and work-from-home/shop-online trends. Stores and face-to-face interactions with customers also provides more potential for upselling to services such as Apple Care and more, which can provide a small boost to service revenues immediately while aiding the long-term growth of the segment from more paid subscribers, which is nearing 700 million, with services like Apple Music having over 70 million and Apple TV over 40 million. New offerings like the rumored HiFi music could secure more subscriptions against competing services like Spotify (SPOT).\nContinual service revenue growth is one of the largest long-term positives for Apple, as the segment boasts the highest gross margin at 70%. Apple has a broad service ecosystem, and the strong product demand witnessed through Q2 in all categories provides a tailwind for bundles like Apple One; this could provide a multi-quarter timeline of high-growth for services. Revenues for the segment are still one-third of iPhone, the largest single contributor, but services are still on a solid growth trajectory, one that could see the segment generate up to $80 billion annually by 2023 while contributing substantially to gross profit and net income.\nApple's ability to innovate and constantly produce new products that are met with high demand across all product lines, from computers to phones to headphones and more, should never be overlooked. The company released AirTags and a new Apple TV 4K in April alongside the Mac and iPad refresh, with a lineup of refreshed, cheaper AirPods 3 and Pro redesign, more Mac and iPad changes rumored for 2021, while later years could see Apple unveil AR glasses, an autonomous car and a foldable iPhone. Apple constantly finds new ways to spark repeat interactions with similar products in short time frames (i.e. AirPods), and keep customers inside its ecosystem, increasing monetization potential from both products and services. At the bottom line, Apple has not failed to find new segments to monetize at scale, and whether the future holds cars, augmented reality, completed redesigned iPhones, Apple looks poised to succeed in nearly any market it chooses to enter.\nOverall\nAfter the strong Q2 report, Apple heads into its seasonally weakest quarter, and faces some weaknesses in its ongoing supply constraints for high-demand Mac and iPad models as well as within a weaker Chinese smartphone market emerging during April. FY22 revenues and earnings could also fail to reach typical annual growth rates as historical revenues have proved lackluster following large iPhone upgrade cycles. However, Apple's innovative strength and ability to monetize nearly any segment it enters at scale, combined with service growth and persistent demand for most products gives a neutral near-term stance as Apple hit a double retest of its 200-day moving average but a more bullish long-term stance as buybacks continue to increase share price appreciation alongside these stated factors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TWX","TIME"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/133191004"}