Teruwa
2021-05-27
this is amazingly funny
Santoli’s Wednesday market notes: Meme stocks are percolating again
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As the indexes have slowed and hovered just below record highs, there has been plenty of frustration on all sides – bulls, bears, growth fans and value believers have all had reason both for doubt and hope the past several weeks of a churning trading range.This frustration has lowered conviction levels, spread caution and moderated the most aggressive positioning. This doesn’t guarantee a run to happy new highs; we surely never got panicky or oversold. But this choppy phase has left the market on more balanced footing.Fear & Greed Indexis at its lows for the year and investment-advisor sentiment has come off recent highs notably.The S&P chart continues to hold up while looking as if it’s in no hurry at all for the moment. Still probably close enough to the old highs that it would be odd not to make a run closer to it before long, even if it does prove the top of an ongoing range.Meantime, the retail-favorite, meme-stock andshort-squeeze names are percolating again. We’ve seen the high-energy speculative flows ease back quite a bit from stocks and options since February but they never went away fully. Maybe the crypto dump has redirected those looking for action back to ARKK (+10% in two weeks), TSLA, spec-tech and silly squeeze names (GME, AMC).Worth noting that in past months when the retail hot-potato stocks were popping, it eventually turned negative for the broader market. Still well shy of prior extremes, of course. And keep in mind that for all the wild Reddit claims of short-hinting raids, the overall market has a minimal short base – short interest relative to market cap near multi-decade lows.Treasury yields remain heavy in a prolonged consolidation below the March highs. Foreign demand, short squeeze in bonds, past-peak macro acceleration, calmer inflation narrative and belief the Fed will not alter policy soon all in play. So far the 10-year yield hasn’t broken down. Probably a bit of room below 1.5% before one would say the upward trend is over (the yield spent almost no time between 1.4% and 1.5%) but not much.No surprise the bank stocks have the exact same chart shape – sideways beneath recent highs, still in an uptrend but without a ton of room for error before than would change:Market breadth is solidly positive, NYSE 2:1 advancers-to-decliners, small caps outperforming. Some minor land mines were tripped – CVS and WBA weak on yet another AMZN pharmacy headline, Deere conspicuously weak and now off more than 10% from a high. Mega-cap tech on a short leash after bouncing. 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