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2021-06-22
I thikk no leh
The Fed Has Spoken: Stocks To Buy Now
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Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee made its most significant hawkish shift yet, accelerating its timeline for hiking the Federal Funds rate to 2023 from 2024 and setting the table to end asset repurchases as soon as this year.</p>\n<p>The Central Bank left little doubt government's one-two monetary and fiscal punch has reinvigorated economic activity. Exiting the meeting, bankers believe gross domestic product, or GDP, willgrow 7%this year, up from its 6.5% forecast in March, resulting in core inflation of 3%, up from its prior outlook for 2.2%.</p>\n<p>Historically, the Federal Reserve has a reputation for under estimating inflationary pressure, forcing it to act more quickly and aggressively than it originally signals. Whether this means the Fed is behind the inflationary curve now is anyone's guess, but if it is, then we may see an even more hawkish tone over the coming year.</p>\n<p>For now, the Federal Reserve's stance has sparked a tug-of-war between those arguing rate hikes are too far off in the future to worry of a slowdown and those believing the Fed's timeline is still too optimistic. The knee-jerk reaction to its announcement was to buy speculative stocks, including technology, and sell mid-cycle stocks, such as energy. Further confusing the matter, late-cycle baskets, including healthcare and utilities, made the biggest move up in our large-cap sector ranking this week (see below), suggesting we may be closer to an economic reckoning than originally thought.</p>\n<p><b>The best sectors today</b></p>\n<p>Weekly, we rank 1,600 institutional-quality stocks across seven factors. In short, our scoring system incorporates earnings growth, earnings beats, insider buying, short- and long-term money flows, days to cover held short, trends in valuation, and seasonality.</p>\n<p>Once stocks run our gauntlet, we aggregate individual scores by sector to gain insight into the best baskets to over- or under-weight.</p>\n<p>Previously, I've written abouttechnology's relative weaknessin our ranking. The sector still scores below our average universe score, despite catching bids earlier this week. It will be interesting to see if this week's buying spree continues, helping technology climb our ranking, especially since technology doesn't normally score below average for long. For now, staying industry and stock specific in technology still appears to be the best bet.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d6585be1d6bfa0b5a61dc98f0ca8c85\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Top Stocks for Tomorrow.</i></p>\n<p>We also break out our sector scores by market cap every week.</p>\n<p>Often, sectors move up or down in our large-cap ranking sooner than they do in mid cap or small cap; giving investors an early signal of shifting tides. For this reason, paying close attention to the large cap ranking can pay off even if you invest in smaller companies.</p>\n<p>This week, both healthcare and utilities moved up in our large-cap ranking. The improvement could reflect growing clarity into the groups because of the Supreme Court's decision to keep the Affordable Care Act in place and energy strains in Texas, California, and elsewhere, respectively. Perhaps, the move up in these baskets, which are relatively inelastic to economic activity, signals the first Fed Funds rate hike will happen in 2022, not 2023, though.</p>\n<p>Overall, REITs, healthcare, energy, utilities, and financials are top rated in large cap, while technology, consumer goods, and basics score below average. In mid cap, energy, REITs, utilities, and consumer goods are best, while technology, industrials, basics, and healthcare are low scoring. The top small cap sectors are REITs, energy, financials, and services and the lowest-scoring baskets are healthcare, technology, and basics. Focusing on stocks in top-scoring sectors and staying selective in low-scoring sectors could be the best way to find alpha from here.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440717f3f07f728c62361601e338f285\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Top Stocks for Tomorrow.</i></p>\n<p><b>The strongest scoring stocks to buy</b></p>\n<p>As I mentioned, we score stocks in our universe weekly, allowing us to rank them from best to worst by screening criteria, such as market cap and sector. For example, the following stock ideas come from our weekly report highlighting the highest-scoring stocks in our universe by sector, regardless of market cap.</p>\n<p>Over 200 stocks made the cut for this report, including the following nine stocks.</p>\n<p>First up, investors ought to think about pharmaceutical stocks given large-cap healthcare is improving in our sector work. Over 20 healthcare stocks made our best stocks list this week, including AbbVie(NYSE:ABBV)and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).</p>\n<p>In the U.S., AbbVie faces-off against generic versions of its mega-blockbuster immunology drug, Humira, in 2023, but up-and-coming top sellers, including Rinvoq and Skyrizi, should helpinsulate it against a drop-off in sales. Botox also provides a nice revenue tailwind because aesthetics demand isalready above pre-COVID levelsthanks to post-vaccination doctor visits. Moonshot-style data is coming soon, too, with trial results in Alzheimer's anticipated this summer and pivotal results from Vraylar's major depressive disorder trials later this year. Finally, since it's paying down debt and still guiding for high single-digit sales growth from 2025 to 2029, despite Humira's loss of exclusivity, its 4.5% dividend appears to be on solid ground.</p>\n<p>Improving post-vaccination trends may make it time to watch Bristol-Myers, too. It's heavily exposed to cancer indications through it's top-selling Opdivo and Yervoy, and earlier this month, managementsaidCOVID-era, double-digit declines in new patient starts for oncology drugs improved to a 5% to 10% decline. If trends continue improving, then oncology drug demand could be back to a pre-COVID levels soon. Similarly, rebounding doctor visits also support sales of Bristol-Myers' Eliquis, a blockbuster oral anticoagulant used in cardiovascular disease.</p>\n<p>Outside of healthcare, energy stocks could make sense given increasing global GDP and inflation forecasts. Oil stocks sold off following the Fed's update last week, however, measured production growth should help keep per barrel prices high at E&P companies, including Hess Corp (HES), while also providing demand tailwinds for services providers, including Oceaneering International (OII).</p>\n<p>Hess Corp'scollaborationoffshore Guyana with Exxon Mobil (XOM) gives it 30% exposure to over 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the Stabroek Block, and reserves are climbing thanks to new discoveries. Its breakeven cost in the play ranges from $25 to $35 per barrel of Brent Crude, so with current prices above $70, new production coming online could help boost earnings nicely over the next few years.</p>\n<p>Anoffshore energy projectsplayer, Oceaneering Int'l could see demand for its remotely-operated vehicles (ROVs), subsea project management, and manufactured products, such as umbilicals, increase nicely if offshore activity picks up because of higher per barrel prices. In Q1, ROV fleet utilization was just 53%, yet day rates improved 7% quarter over quarter, and for the full year, management expects fleet utilization to be in thehigh 50%range. With a project in Angola supported project management revenue this year, a potential uptick in book-to-bill for manufactured products, and increasing ROV utilization, it could still be early innings for the company's turnaround.</p>\n<p>There are plenty of ideas outside healthcare and energy, too. For example, nearly 50 technology stocks made our best list, despite the sector scoring below average in our sector ranking, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Shopify (SHOP), which benefit from increasing data in the cloud and e-commerce tailwinds, respectively. Amazon.com (AMZN) is also top-scoring, benefiting from growing e-commerce share of total retail sales and Prime Day, which could add over $10 billion in revenue this year, based on2020's performance.</p>\n<p>Our best list also includes a slate of services stocks, including Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Revolve Group (RVLV). As younger workers refresh wardrobes because post-vaccination, return to office trends, those companies could see a healthy uptake in sales.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Has Spoken: Stocks To Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Has Spoken: Stocks To Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 16:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435924-the-fed-has-spoken-stocks-to-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Fed could begin raising rates sooner than 2023.\nHealthcare and utilities are climbing our sector ranking.\nThe top stocks in our universe today.\n\nAs I wrote last week,inflation is here. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435924-the-fed-has-spoken-stocks-to-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABBV":"艾伯维公司","OII":"国际海洋工程","XOM":"埃克森美孚","BMY":"施贵宝","RVLV":"Revolve Group, LLC","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","HES":"赫斯","MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435924-the-fed-has-spoken-stocks-to-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1124495234","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed could begin raising rates sooner than 2023.\nHealthcare and utilities are climbing our sector ranking.\nThe top stocks in our universe today.\n\nAs I wrote last week,inflation is here. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee made its most significant hawkish shift yet, accelerating its timeline for hiking the Federal Funds rate to 2023 from 2024 and setting the table to end asset repurchases as soon as this year.\nThe Central Bank left little doubt government's one-two monetary and fiscal punch has reinvigorated economic activity. Exiting the meeting, bankers believe gross domestic product, or GDP, willgrow 7%this year, up from its 6.5% forecast in March, resulting in core inflation of 3%, up from its prior outlook for 2.2%.\nHistorically, the Federal Reserve has a reputation for under estimating inflationary pressure, forcing it to act more quickly and aggressively than it originally signals. Whether this means the Fed is behind the inflationary curve now is anyone's guess, but if it is, then we may see an even more hawkish tone over the coming year.\nFor now, the Federal Reserve's stance has sparked a tug-of-war between those arguing rate hikes are too far off in the future to worry of a slowdown and those believing the Fed's timeline is still too optimistic. The knee-jerk reaction to its announcement was to buy speculative stocks, including technology, and sell mid-cycle stocks, such as energy. Further confusing the matter, late-cycle baskets, including healthcare and utilities, made the biggest move up in our large-cap sector ranking this week (see below), suggesting we may be closer to an economic reckoning than originally thought.\nThe best sectors today\nWeekly, we rank 1,600 institutional-quality stocks across seven factors. In short, our scoring system incorporates earnings growth, earnings beats, insider buying, short- and long-term money flows, days to cover held short, trends in valuation, and seasonality.\nOnce stocks run our gauntlet, we aggregate individual scores by sector to gain insight into the best baskets to over- or under-weight.\nPreviously, I've written abouttechnology's relative weaknessin our ranking. The sector still scores below our average universe score, despite catching bids earlier this week. It will be interesting to see if this week's buying spree continues, helping technology climb our ranking, especially since technology doesn't normally score below average for long. For now, staying industry and stock specific in technology still appears to be the best bet.\nSource: Top Stocks for Tomorrow.\nWe also break out our sector scores by market cap every week.\nOften, sectors move up or down in our large-cap ranking sooner than they do in mid cap or small cap; giving investors an early signal of shifting tides. For this reason, paying close attention to the large cap ranking can pay off even if you invest in smaller companies.\nThis week, both healthcare and utilities moved up in our large-cap ranking. The improvement could reflect growing clarity into the groups because of the Supreme Court's decision to keep the Affordable Care Act in place and energy strains in Texas, California, and elsewhere, respectively. Perhaps, the move up in these baskets, which are relatively inelastic to economic activity, signals the first Fed Funds rate hike will happen in 2022, not 2023, though.\nOverall, REITs, healthcare, energy, utilities, and financials are top rated in large cap, while technology, consumer goods, and basics score below average. In mid cap, energy, REITs, utilities, and consumer goods are best, while technology, industrials, basics, and healthcare are low scoring. The top small cap sectors are REITs, energy, financials, and services and the lowest-scoring baskets are healthcare, technology, and basics. Focusing on stocks in top-scoring sectors and staying selective in low-scoring sectors could be the best way to find alpha from here.\nSource: Top Stocks for Tomorrow.\nThe strongest scoring stocks to buy\nAs I mentioned, we score stocks in our universe weekly, allowing us to rank them from best to worst by screening criteria, such as market cap and sector. For example, the following stock ideas come from our weekly report highlighting the highest-scoring stocks in our universe by sector, regardless of market cap.\nOver 200 stocks made the cut for this report, including the following nine stocks.\nFirst up, investors ought to think about pharmaceutical stocks given large-cap healthcare is improving in our sector work. Over 20 healthcare stocks made our best stocks list this week, including AbbVie(NYSE:ABBV)and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).\nIn the U.S., AbbVie faces-off against generic versions of its mega-blockbuster immunology drug, Humira, in 2023, but up-and-coming top sellers, including Rinvoq and Skyrizi, should helpinsulate it against a drop-off in sales. Botox also provides a nice revenue tailwind because aesthetics demand isalready above pre-COVID levelsthanks to post-vaccination doctor visits. Moonshot-style data is coming soon, too, with trial results in Alzheimer's anticipated this summer and pivotal results from Vraylar's major depressive disorder trials later this year. Finally, since it's paying down debt and still guiding for high single-digit sales growth from 2025 to 2029, despite Humira's loss of exclusivity, its 4.5% dividend appears to be on solid ground.\nImproving post-vaccination trends may make it time to watch Bristol-Myers, too. It's heavily exposed to cancer indications through it's top-selling Opdivo and Yervoy, and earlier this month, managementsaidCOVID-era, double-digit declines in new patient starts for oncology drugs improved to a 5% to 10% decline. If trends continue improving, then oncology drug demand could be back to a pre-COVID levels soon. Similarly, rebounding doctor visits also support sales of Bristol-Myers' Eliquis, a blockbuster oral anticoagulant used in cardiovascular disease.\nOutside of healthcare, energy stocks could make sense given increasing global GDP and inflation forecasts. Oil stocks sold off following the Fed's update last week, however, measured production growth should help keep per barrel prices high at E&P companies, including Hess Corp (HES), while also providing demand tailwinds for services providers, including Oceaneering International (OII).\nHess Corp'scollaborationoffshore Guyana with Exxon Mobil (XOM) gives it 30% exposure to over 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the Stabroek Block, and reserves are climbing thanks to new discoveries. Its breakeven cost in the play ranges from $25 to $35 per barrel of Brent Crude, so with current prices above $70, new production coming online could help boost earnings nicely over the next few years.\nAnoffshore energy projectsplayer, Oceaneering Int'l could see demand for its remotely-operated vehicles (ROVs), subsea project management, and manufactured products, such as umbilicals, increase nicely if offshore activity picks up because of higher per barrel prices. In Q1, ROV fleet utilization was just 53%, yet day rates improved 7% quarter over quarter, and for the full year, management expects fleet utilization to be in thehigh 50%range. With a project in Angola supported project management revenue this year, a potential uptick in book-to-bill for manufactured products, and increasing ROV utilization, it could still be early innings for the company's turnaround.\nThere are plenty of ideas outside healthcare and energy, too. For example, nearly 50 technology stocks made our best list, despite the sector scoring below average in our sector ranking, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Shopify (SHOP), which benefit from increasing data in the cloud and e-commerce tailwinds, respectively. Amazon.com (AMZN) is also top-scoring, benefiting from growing e-commerce share of total retail sales and Prime Day, which could add over $10 billion in revenue this year, based on2020's performance.\nOur best list also includes a slate of services stocks, including Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Revolve Group (RVLV). As younger workers refresh wardrobes because post-vaccination, return to office trends, those companies could see a healthy uptake in sales.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/129316188"}
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