MitchellC
2021-06-25
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Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":126522545,"tweetId":"126522545","gmtCreate":1624579453287,"gmtModify":1633951092774,"author":{"id":3586596115302871,"idStr":"3586596115302871","authorId":3586596115302871,"authorIdStr":"3586596115302871","name":"MitchellC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Read</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Read</p></body></html>","text":"Read","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126522545","repostId":1169202537,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169202537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624549071,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169202537?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169202537","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infras","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Confluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.</li>\n <li>The firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.</li>\n <li>CFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but is generating high operating losses and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll watch it from the sidelines.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Quick Take</b></p>\n<p>Confluent (CFLT) has filed to raise $713 million in an IPO of its Class A common stock, according to an S-1/Aregistration statement.</p>\n<p>The firm provides data infrastructure as a service to enterprises with complex requirements.</p>\n<p>CFLT is generating high operating losses with no credible path to operating breakeven and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll pass on it.</p>\n<p><b>Company & Technology</b></p>\n<p>Mountain View, California-based Confluent was founded to create a platform enabling companies to more easily build and deploy data-driven applications for real-time use.</p>\n<p>Management is headed by co-founder and CEO Jay Kreps, who was previously a software architect at LinkedIn and was one of the creators of Apache Kafka which Confluent uses as the basis for its system.</p>\n<p>Kafka is used by many companies for high-performance data streaming applications, among other uses.</p>\n<p>The company’s primary offerings include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Confluent Cloud - SaaS platform</li>\n <li>Confluent Platform - Self-managed system</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Confluent has received at least $574 million in equity investment from investors including Benchmark Capital, Index Ventures, Jun Rao, and Sequoia Capital.</p>\n<p><b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>The firm pursues relationships primarily with large and medium-sized companies through a direct sales and marketing approach.</p>\n<p>As of March 31, 2021, Confluent had over 560 customers with $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue across numerous industries including financial services, retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, and media & entertainment.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5cc76d07fa184ab25908af34e003253\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade4d8d84c15ad5b405df3eb76062e01\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"247\"></p>\n<p>The Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.</p>\n<p>CFLT’s most recent calculation was negative (7%) as of March 31, 2021, so the firm needs significant improvement in this regard, per the table below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cb9e1ff077aaab8fda94762c10a6dd\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"249\"></p>\n<p>The firm’s dollar-based net revenue retention rate for Q1 2021 was 117% and for all of 2020 was 125%, which are both good results.</p>\n<p>The dollar-based net revenue retention rate metric measures how much additional revenue is generated over time from each cohort of customers, so that a figure over 100% means that the company is generating more revenue from the same customer cohort over time, indicating good product/market fit and efficient sales and marketing efforts.</p>\n<p>Market & Competition</p>\n<p>According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global market for big data as a service was an estimated $5 billion in 2018 and is forecast to exceed $61 billion by 2026.</p>\n<p>This represents a forecast very strong CAGR of 36.9% from 2019 to 2026.</p>\n<p>The main drivers for this expected growth are the continued transition of enterprises to cloud applications and the need to drive efficiencies across all aspects of the enterprise.</p>\n<p>Also, as companies transition to cloud infrastructures, their systems are becoming more complex and there is a substantial need for vendor reduction to improve integration and lower complexity.</p>\n<p>The infrastructure as a service market [IaaS] is expected to grow by $136 billion from 2021 to 2025, representing a CAGR of 27%, according toResearchAndMarkets.</p>\n<p>Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)</p></li>\n <li><p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)</p></li>\n <li><p>Google (GOOG,GOOGL)</p></li>\n <li><p>TIBCO Streaming</p></li>\n <li><p>Cloudera(NYSE:CLDR)</p></li>\n <li><p>Red Hat</p></li>\n <li><p>Oracle(NYSE:ORCL)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Financial Performance</p>\n<p>Confluent’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Growing top line revenue</p></li>\n <li><p>Increasing gross profit and gross margin</p></li>\n <li><p>High and increasing operating losses</p></li>\n <li><p>High cash used in operations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5194e46029ac9b822d272939057e2cdf\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"624\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07fa0bff438bb98cc5b56772e6af6d7f\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"621\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e045562404b8ffa6569881a2b62d59\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"620\">As of March 31, 2021, Confluent had $44.1 million in cash and $274.4 million in total liabilities.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow during the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million).</p>\n<p><b>IPO Details</b></p>\n<p>Confluent intends to raise $713 million in gross proceeds from an IPO of its Class A common stock, offering 23 million shares at a proposed midpoint price of $31.00.</p>\n<p>Class A common stockholders will receive one vote per share and Class shareholders will be entitled to ten votes per share.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 Index no longer admits firms with multiple classes of stock into its index.</p>\n<p>Certain existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares of up to $112 million in the aggregate at the IPO price.</p>\n<p>Assuming a successful IPO, the company’s enterprise value at IPO would approximate $6.9 billion, excluding the effects of underwriter over-allotment options.</p>\n<p>Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 9.11%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p>\n<p>Management says it will use the net proceeds from the IPO as follows:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The principal purposes of this offering are to increase our capitalization and financial flexibility and create a public market for our Class A common stock. We intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering for general corporate purposes, including working capital, operating expenses, and capital expenditures. We cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the remaining net proceeds to us from this offering. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, we do not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time. (Source)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p>\n<p>Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, UBS Investment Bank, Wells Fargo Securities, Cowen, D.A. Davidson & Co., JMP Securities, KeyBanc Capital Markets and Piper Sandler.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e716bb31dd4f9850fb6b2d45ab87f7b3\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>As a reference, a potential partial public comparable to Confluent would be Cloudera; below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c053081dcc6ad74cba10a936cd27571\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"419\"></p>\n<p>The firm’s last private market valuation was $4.5 billion in April, 2020, so the IPO will represent an increase in valuation of approximately 53% from that valuation.</p>\n<p>Commentary</p>\n<p>Confluent is seeking public investment capital for its general corporate expansion plans and to provide an ultimate exit for its venture capital firm investors.</p>\n<p>Those investors include top tier firms Benchmark and Sequoia Capital.</p>\n<p>The firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth and gross profit growth, but high operating losses which are a distinct negative in the current IPO market environment.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million), so the company is burning through a lot of cash.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenue has increased; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period.</p>\n<p>The market opportunity for providing data/infrastructure as a service is very large and expected to grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years, so the firm has strong industry growth dynamics in its favor.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 26.6% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p>\n<p>The primary risk to the company’s outlook is if one or more of its major platform competitors bundles competing offerings into its existing pricing structure, putting substantial pricing pressure and integration complexity pressure onto Confluent.</p>\n<p>As for valuation, compared to already public and larger partial competitor Cloudera, Confluent is seeking a big premium at IPO.</p>\n<p>Of course, CFLT is growing revenue at a far higher rate of growth, so some of that premium is justified.</p>\n<p>Still, the firm has made no credible progress toward operating breakeven and is producing enormous operating losses.</p>\n<p>Since the IPO valuation is not cheap and the firm is generating high operating losses and cash burn, I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.</p>\n<p>Expected IPO Pricing Date: June 23, 2021</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 23:37 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.\nCFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169202537","content_text":"Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.\nCFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but is generating high operating losses and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll watch it from the sidelines.\n\nQuick Take\nConfluent (CFLT) has filed to raise $713 million in an IPO of its Class A common stock, according to an S-1/Aregistration statement.\nThe firm provides data infrastructure as a service to enterprises with complex requirements.\nCFLT is generating high operating losses with no credible path to operating breakeven and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll pass on it.\nCompany & Technology\nMountain View, California-based Confluent was founded to create a platform enabling companies to more easily build and deploy data-driven applications for real-time use.\nManagement is headed by co-founder and CEO Jay Kreps, who was previously a software architect at LinkedIn and was one of the creators of Apache Kafka which Confluent uses as the basis for its system.\nKafka is used by many companies for high-performance data streaming applications, among other uses.\nThe company’s primary offerings include:\n\nConfluent Cloud - SaaS platform\nConfluent Platform - Self-managed system\n\nConfluent has received at least $574 million in equity investment from investors including Benchmark Capital, Index Ventures, Jun Rao, and Sequoia Capital.\nCustomer/User Acquisition\nThe firm pursues relationships primarily with large and medium-sized companies through a direct sales and marketing approach.\nAs of March 31, 2021, Confluent had over 560 customers with $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue across numerous industries including financial services, retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, and media & entertainment.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:\n\nThe Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\n\nThe Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.\nCFLT’s most recent calculation was negative (7%) as of March 31, 2021, so the firm needs significant improvement in this regard, per the table below:\n\nThe firm’s dollar-based net revenue retention rate for Q1 2021 was 117% and for all of 2020 was 125%, which are both good results.\nThe dollar-based net revenue retention rate metric measures how much additional revenue is generated over time from each cohort of customers, so that a figure over 100% means that the company is generating more revenue from the same customer cohort over time, indicating good product/market fit and efficient sales and marketing efforts.\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global market for big data as a service was an estimated $5 billion in 2018 and is forecast to exceed $61 billion by 2026.\nThis represents a forecast very strong CAGR of 36.9% from 2019 to 2026.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are the continued transition of enterprises to cloud applications and the need to drive efficiencies across all aspects of the enterprise.\nAlso, as companies transition to cloud infrastructures, their systems are becoming more complex and there is a substantial need for vendor reduction to improve integration and lower complexity.\nThe infrastructure as a service market [IaaS] is expected to grow by $136 billion from 2021 to 2025, representing a CAGR of 27%, according toResearchAndMarkets.\nMajor competitive or other industry participants include:\n\nMicrosoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)\nGoogle (GOOG,GOOGL)\nTIBCO Streaming\nCloudera(NYSE:CLDR)\nRed Hat\nOracle(NYSE:ORCL)\n\nFinancial Performance\nConfluent’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nGrowing top line revenue\nIncreasing gross profit and gross margin\nHigh and increasing operating losses\nHigh cash used in operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\nAs of March 31, 2021, Confluent had $44.1 million in cash and $274.4 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million).\nIPO Details\nConfluent intends to raise $713 million in gross proceeds from an IPO of its Class A common stock, offering 23 million shares at a proposed midpoint price of $31.00.\nClass A common stockholders will receive one vote per share and Class shareholders will be entitled to ten votes per share.\nThe S&P 500 Index no longer admits firms with multiple classes of stock into its index.\nCertain existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares of up to $112 million in the aggregate at the IPO price.\nAssuming a successful IPO, the company’s enterprise value at IPO would approximate $6.9 billion, excluding the effects of underwriter over-allotment options.\nExcluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 9.11%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.\nManagement says it will use the net proceeds from the IPO as follows:\n\n The principal purposes of this offering are to increase our capitalization and financial flexibility and create a public market for our Class A common stock. We intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering for general corporate purposes, including working capital, operating expenses, and capital expenditures. We cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the remaining net proceeds to us from this offering. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, we do not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time. (Source)\n\nManagement’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.\nListed bookrunners of the IPO are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, UBS Investment Bank, Wells Fargo Securities, Cowen, D.A. Davidson & Co., JMP Securities, KeyBanc Capital Markets and Piper Sandler.\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:\n\nAs a reference, a potential partial public comparable to Confluent would be Cloudera; below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\nThe firm’s last private market valuation was $4.5 billion in April, 2020, so the IPO will represent an increase in valuation of approximately 53% from that valuation.\nCommentary\nConfluent is seeking public investment capital for its general corporate expansion plans and to provide an ultimate exit for its venture capital firm investors.\nThose investors include top tier firms Benchmark and Sequoia Capital.\nThe firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth and gross profit growth, but high operating losses which are a distinct negative in the current IPO market environment.\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million), so the company is burning through a lot of cash.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenue has increased; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period.\nThe market opportunity for providing data/infrastructure as a service is very large and expected to grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years, so the firm has strong industry growth dynamics in its favor.\nMorgan Stanley is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 26.6% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the company’s outlook is if one or more of its major platform competitors bundles competing offerings into its existing pricing structure, putting substantial pricing pressure and integration complexity pressure onto Confluent.\nAs for valuation, compared to already public and larger partial competitor Cloudera, Confluent is seeking a big premium at IPO.\nOf course, CFLT is growing revenue at a far higher rate of growth, so some of that premium is justified.\nStill, the firm has made no credible progress toward operating breakeven and is producing enormous operating losses.\nSince the IPO valuation is not cheap and the firm is generating high operating losses and cash burn, I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.\nExpected IPO Pricing Date: June 23, 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/126522545"}
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