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2021-06-06
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AMC is an amusing sideshow as the calm bull market forges ahead, pulling in billions from investors
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC is an amusing sideshow as the calm bull market forges ahead, pulling in billions from investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC is an amusing sideshow as the calm bull market forges ahead, pulling in billions from investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 08:37 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/05/amc-is-an-amusing-sideshow-as-the-calm-bull-market-forges-ahead-pulling-in-billions-from-investors.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market is big enough for apes and tortoises, with plenty of room for the army of primate traders chasing a 2,000% gain in AMC Entertainment and the quiet majority gradually sliding money into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/05/amc-is-an-amusing-sideshow-as-the-calm-bull-market-forges-ahead-pulling-in-billions-from-investors.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/05/amc-is-an-amusing-sideshow-as-the-calm-bull-market-forges-ahead-pulling-in-billions-from-investors.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1162722289","content_text":"The market is big enough for apes and tortoises, with plenty of room for the army of primate traders chasing a 2,000% gain in AMC Entertainment and the quiet majority gradually sliding money into stock funds to harness a regular old economic expansion.\nThe self-described “apes” who’ve helped AMC go bananas — making it by far the most actively traded issue in the stock and options markets last week — have followed the Roaring Kitty-led stampede into GameStop a few months ago to become the fixation of Wall Street and prompt the same vexed questions:\n\nDoes this reflect a dangerously speculative backdrop? (Not really.)\nWill it drive volatility higher across the market as a whole? (Possibly, if the meme stocks get even wilder and drive heavy losses among short sellers, but this isn’t yet happening.)\nWhat does it reveal about the state of society? (No more than we already knew, narratives travel at light speed and separate people into tribes.)\n\nMuch like the initial eruption of buying by Robinhood-armed amateur speculators last year, the videogame-style viral action in AMC and the company’s unapologetic cultivation of retail traders to raise billions in new equity this year has generated so much hand-wringing and lip-pursing among market observers that it’s possibly spread more cautionary sentiment than contagious recklessness.\nThe apes may be agitated and, at some point, will probably make their targeted stocks treacherously unstable with an excess of hot money. But the market’s tortoises are being quite aggressive in their own manner. Meaning that flows into long-term equity funds have been enormous and persistent all year.\nMore than half a trillion dollars has poured into stock ETFs and mutual funds this year, according to EPFR global, amounting to 3.5% of all the money that had accrued in these portfolios from the dawn of time through Dec. 31, 2020.\nOver the past 12 months, Vanguard — the preferred destination of the get-rich-slowly crowd — has taken almost $300 billion into its ETFs alone, 40% of industrywide ETF inflow. The private-wealth clients of Bank of America have allowed their collective equity allocation to climb to a record high above 64%, the firm noted on Friday.\nAs Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich notes, “While the focus on individual investors’ increased equity market participation has received loads of attention, especially given extraordinary moves in some meme stocks, the money flows into equity funds have chased the tape.”\nChased the tape and caught some pretty good gains so far. The S&P 500′s total return this year is now 13.3%, an annualized gain of 34.3%, with the steepest pullback along the way a brief 6% shakeout.\nCalm, rational market advance\nIn fact, the most notable and broadly relevant observation about the latest meme mania is how calm the core stock market has been, hovering for the past seven weeks within a steady band just below record highs. Along the way, stocks have responded pretty much exactly as theory and experience would suggest it would to prevailing macro forces and historical rhythms.\nAfter a massive 90% run off the March 2020 low in 13 months, the tape flattened out and saw some choppiness, just as past patterns hinted was likely.\nTreasury yields repriced dramatically higher from last summer into March, the 10-year yield more than tripling to 1.75%, producing one of the worst stretches for bond returns ever in the first quarter. They’ve since consolidated, in typical mean-reversion fashion, while maintaining their longer-term uptrend and supporting cyclical leadership within equities. The chart of the bank-stock index is a near-facsimile of the 10-year Treasury yield chart, just as the textbook would say it should be.\nFactSet’s John Butters spotlights how tightly the S&P 500 has tracked the upward revision in earnings forecasts for the second quarter. Score one for the rational-market believers.\nFactSet\nAnd while investors in total are carrying historically high exposure to stocks, Deutsche Bank is making the case that this aggressive positioning is in harmony with the economic-growth path as reflected in the ISM Manufacturing index.\nDeutsche Bank\nNone of this is to say the stock market is entirely efficient, correctly valued or dryly predictable. Even methodical tortoises can get overextended on equities. The market will have to contend with some economic deceleration, a decline in fiscal support and an eventual wind-down of Federal Reserve accommodation.\nAnd the voracious, indiscriminate gunning of upside call-option bets on AMC and a cluster of other viral “story stocks” is getting extreme again, not far short of January’s unprecedented peak. This action eventually qualifies as a contrarian indicator and a possible stressor on market function.\nAmusing sideshow\nBut the parallel coexistence of heedless momentum traders and methodical asset allocators does suggest that the meme-stock stampedes can be viewed as mostly an amusing sideshow rather than a speculative fever overtaking the tape. It’s fair to point out,as AMC itself did, that AMC shares have become almost wholly detached from the business while also acknowledging that the market overshoots in individual stocks and sectors constantly in similar magnitude.\nEven if AMC’s $24 billion market capitalization with $5.5 billion in debt were wholly irrational, the market misattributes $30 billion worth of value to companies constantly. Zoom Video is down $40 billion in value in the past six months, for instance, to far less alarm and recrimination. Market prices are and always have been a product of accounting, forecasts, guesswork, emotion and crowd psychology. Plus, in some cases, imagined short squeezes.\nWarren Buffett famously said, “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”\nSure, eventually. But the market has always featured both money in a hurry and patient capital, flippers and holders. And enough of the impatient players do well enough for a while that they attract the next generation of short-termers, even if tortoises live longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/115019530"}
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