RyanLHL
2021-06-02
最近大盘蓝筹科技股应该是在等PE追股价。股市本来就是大放水后，整体PE爆炸，然后好股票高位盘整，烂股票暴跌
Apple: Breather Before Rush To New All-Time High
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":113566752,"tweetId":"113566752","gmtCreate":1622627020176,"gmtModify":1634099808562,"author":{"id":3580646964487020,"idStr":"3580646964487020","authorId":3580646964487020,"authorIdStr":"3580646964487020","name":"RyanLHL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近大盘蓝筹科技股应该是在等PE追股价。股市本来就是大放水后，整体PE爆炸，然后好股票高位盘整，烂股票暴跌</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近大盘蓝筹科技股应该是在等PE追股价。股市本来就是大放水后，整体PE爆炸，然后好股票高位盘整，烂股票暴跌</p></body></html>","text":"最近大盘蓝筹科技股应该是在等PE追股价。股市本来就是大放水后，整体PE爆炸，然后好股票高位盘整，烂股票暴跌","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113566752","repostId":1198144513,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198144513","pubTimestamp":1622619809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198144513?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Breather Before Rush To New All-Time High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198144513","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple's share price has tended to move sideways in recent months.\nThe current consolidation","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's share price has tended to move sideways in recent months.</li>\n <li>The current consolidation offers an opportunity for investors who want to increase their stake in the company or initiate the first position.</li>\n <li>If the general sentiment remains intact (higher interest rates possible, but not yet foreseeable), then the current consolidation should only be a breather before the next all-time high.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c329fc4d7acb4ae6598b3f5dc195e102\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by prachanart/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroduction</span></p>\n<p>Apple's (AAPL) share price has tended to move sideways in recent months. From the all-time high in January 2021 of approx. $145, the stock has lost more than 10 percent in value, putting it at roughly the same level as in August 2020. This temporary price weakness is welcome after the nearly parabolic rise after the COVID-19 bottom. The overall performance is still good as, since March 2020, the price gains are still over 100 percent.</p>\n<p>This consolidation offers an opportunity for investors who want to increase their stake in the company or initiate the first position. On the other hand, the risk is that the share price will continue to correct. A look at history shows that the Apple share is moving very close to its historical multiples. The general market environment and its inflation concerns are likely to be decisive factors for the further course of the next share price movements.</p>\n<p>If the general sentiment remains intact (higher interest rates possible, but not yet foreseeable), then the current consolidation should only be a breather for Apple stock before the next peak storm.</p>\n<p><b>The breather</b></p>\n<p>We currently see a fairly consistent picture for tech stocks. After a brilliant share price performance, many of the high-flyers are running in a sideways phase. This applies, for example, to Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX), and Salesforce (CRM). Only Facebook (FB) has recently broken out somewhat, but its overall performance is still in line with its \"peers\". This picture essentially shows that we are currently in a market phase in which good operating performance doesn't lead to rising share prices.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d20302528bd7007e3947e64815870f7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"487\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>We see here that the markets are still intact (at a high level). A rise in one sector is followed by consolidation and investors switching strategies to other sectors.</p>\n<p>Accordingly, a certain risk aversion is still present in the market. Theimportant rulehas not been forgotten that any further increase in the share price without an equivalent growth of the company's underlying business increases the investor's risk.</p>\n<p>This gives companies time to reduce a valuation that is too high. Apple, for example, was also able to reduce its valuation enormously during the consolidation phase of recent months. The P/E ratio has dropped from 40 to 27.</p>\n<p><b>Apple is a good company and a good investment</b></p>\n<p>A warm day does not make a summer, just as a good company is not automatically a good investment. I don't think we need to say much about the strength of Apple's business at this point. For a company that is a mature business, the company shines quarter after quarter with impressive growth figures.</p>\n<p>Some investors always complain that Apple does not develop revolutionary and disruptive products like the iPhone, but I think we're seeing something revolutionary with Apple processors right now.</p>\n<p>The M1 processor and its performance is a groundbreaking new experience for many consumers. You only have to look at reviews on YouTube about the MacBook Air, which has a better single-core performance than every Intel Mac that exists, to understand what Apple has created. Without going into the rumors about an Apple Car, I can say that I'm not worried about innovation at Apple.</p>\n<p><b>Is there enough fuel to reach the peak?</b></p>\n<p>The question remains whether there is still enough fuel to push Apple stock to a new all-time high. One obstacle could be too high a valuation. And even though we have seen that the picture here has improved strongly recently, a P/E ratio of almost 28 is not necessarily cheap. Nevertheless, we have to consider that Apple was sometimes (for example, in 2016) traded with a P/E ratio of approx. 10 (absolutely absurd from today's Captain Hindsight perspective).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7d71091aadd322820423df003c1ed4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>So we can ask ourselves whether a P/E ratio of 28 is appropriate for a company like Apple. It helps to look at the company's expected future growth to put the still relatively high valuation into perspective. Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise from $3.28 in 2020 to $5.13 in 2021 and over $5.93 in 2024. This would increase the profit accruing to shareholders by over 80 percent within four years. In this respect, the forward P/E ratio for the expected figures in 2021 is only 23.</p>\n<p>This brings us back to an area where I have less of a bellyache. Measured against the expected earnings for 2024, this even results in a P/E ratio of 20. In addition, we must not forget that Apple's forecasts are usually too low. The last time Apple missed the estimates was in Q2 2017. In Q2 2021, for example, the estimates for EPS were $0.99, Apple delivered $1.40. I think that the forecasts for the coming years are somewhat conservative from today's point of view, but that's perfectly okay). So there is enough fuel to justify further share price growth in the future because measured against the earnings figures expected in the medium term, Apple is not overvalued today. The same is true when we look at other companies in Apple's peer group.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/667c7853ebdf31d0bd290fb2351e1f50\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YChartsUpside potential in concreto</span></p>\n<p>Even with a relatively conservative discounted cash flow analysis, Apple is not overvalued at the moment. For calculating the DCF, I take the expected revenue of approx. $370 billion for 2022 into account. In the following years, I expect Apple to increase sales by 10 percent a year. As I said, this is a rather conservative calculation that already includes some downside scenarios (see below for details).</p>\n<p>I also expect an improvement in the operating margin. Therefore, for my DCF calculation, I work with an operating margin between 14 and 15 percent for the coming years. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation. But that puts me in the good average range of the last few years. Apple's revenue growth averaged 14 percent per year in the previous ten years and almost 10 percent per year in the last three years. So my calculation already assumes that Apple will not maintain the growth pace of more than 20 percent that it has shown recently. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0c2e0d8766e65fdac5c077f6a47740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"><span>DCF Model, source:www.alphaspread.com/estimates by author</span></p>\n<p>Based on my estimates, we see a fair intrinsic value of Apple's share at a share price of approx. $134. Compared to the current market price of $125, the company's shares are undervalued, offering an upside potential of 7 percent. That's not much, but it confirms my assessment above that the company is not overpriced.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50296d4f30b8e544d4abff4ef8394009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\"><span>Source: alphaspread.com/estimates by author</span></p>\n<p><b>Downside risks</b></p>\n<p>Apple stock is back in buy territory. That's a good thing. Nevertheless, there are some risks investors should be aware of. On the one hand, we should keep an eye on the general market sentiment. The fear of rising interest rates is currently hanging over tech stocks like a sword of Damocles.</p>\n<p>But that's a thing we cannot influence. The best protection against such a \"higher rates\" scenario is to buy solid, profitable companies whose business does not suffer from higher rates and that do not have completely inflated multiples. And here, things are fine from my point of view. Apple has high but not fully decoupled multiples that will continue to unwind over the next few years, so we are essentially talking about medium-term risks here.</p>\n<p>In addition, the company has an excellent balance sheet. In this respect, the company can operate relatively independently of the interest rate environment. The interest-bearing debt of $121 billion is offset by cash and cash equivalents of almost $70 billion. After dividends, the company had nearly $60 billion of free cash flow left in 2020.</p>\n<p>I am also relatively relaxed about the risk of slower growth due to the re-opening after easing the lockdown restrictions. Some analysts have downgraded Apple's share price target to $90. They assume that Apple's iPhone sales will go down in 2021. The arguments are that Apple had already sold so many iPhones in 2020, and consumers would spend money on vacations, travel, and restaurants than on an upgrade.</p>\n<p>In the end, that is crystal ball reading. It's not entirely clear to me why past success precludes renewed success. Apple has often impressed with better-than-expected figures so far. Meanwhile, the other product can even cushion declines in iPhone sales. We could see this relatively clearly in Q1 2021, as iPhone sales fell by 3 percent due to the delayed launch of the iPhone 12. So yes, there may be fewer iPhone sales in 2021. But that's a short-term, trade-based view, which is fine but doesn't fit within the scope of this article and the author's investment approach.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Apple is not necessarily a bargain, but the recent consolidation has pushed the stock back into buyable territory. Market sentiment around concerns of rising inflation and interest rates remains a risk. Also, the opening of COVID-19 restrictions could slow down the growth rate somewhat. However, these are all rather short- and medium-term views, which are certainly interesting for swing traders and whatnot. As a long-term investor with a diversified portfolio, Apple is currently back on my list of potential buy candidates.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Breather Before Rush To New All-Time High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Breather Before Rush To New All-Time High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 15:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432463-apple-breather-before-new-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's share price has tended to move sideways in recent months.\nThe current consolidation offers an opportunity for investors who want to increase their stake in the company or initiate the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432463-apple-breather-before-new-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432463-apple-breather-before-new-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198144513","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's share price has tended to move sideways in recent months.\nThe current consolidation offers an opportunity for investors who want to increase their stake in the company or initiate the first position.\nIf the general sentiment remains intact (higher interest rates possible, but not yet foreseeable), then the current consolidation should only be a breather before the next all-time high.\n\nPhoto by prachanart/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroduction\nApple's (AAPL) share price has tended to move sideways in recent months. From the all-time high in January 2021 of approx. $145, the stock has lost more than 10 percent in value, putting it at roughly the same level as in August 2020. This temporary price weakness is welcome after the nearly parabolic rise after the COVID-19 bottom. The overall performance is still good as, since March 2020, the price gains are still over 100 percent.\nThis consolidation offers an opportunity for investors who want to increase their stake in the company or initiate the first position. On the other hand, the risk is that the share price will continue to correct. A look at history shows that the Apple share is moving very close to its historical multiples. The general market environment and its inflation concerns are likely to be decisive factors for the further course of the next share price movements.\nIf the general sentiment remains intact (higher interest rates possible, but not yet foreseeable), then the current consolidation should only be a breather for Apple stock before the next peak storm.\nThe breather\nWe currently see a fairly consistent picture for tech stocks. After a brilliant share price performance, many of the high-flyers are running in a sideways phase. This applies, for example, to Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX), and Salesforce (CRM). Only Facebook (FB) has recently broken out somewhat, but its overall performance is still in line with its \"peers\". This picture essentially shows that we are currently in a market phase in which good operating performance doesn't lead to rising share prices.\nData by YCharts\nWe see here that the markets are still intact (at a high level). A rise in one sector is followed by consolidation and investors switching strategies to other sectors.\nAccordingly, a certain risk aversion is still present in the market. Theimportant rulehas not been forgotten that any further increase in the share price without an equivalent growth of the company's underlying business increases the investor's risk.\nThis gives companies time to reduce a valuation that is too high. Apple, for example, was also able to reduce its valuation enormously during the consolidation phase of recent months. The P/E ratio has dropped from 40 to 27.\nApple is a good company and a good investment\nA warm day does not make a summer, just as a good company is not automatically a good investment. I don't think we need to say much about the strength of Apple's business at this point. For a company that is a mature business, the company shines quarter after quarter with impressive growth figures.\nSome investors always complain that Apple does not develop revolutionary and disruptive products like the iPhone, but I think we're seeing something revolutionary with Apple processors right now.\nThe M1 processor and its performance is a groundbreaking new experience for many consumers. You only have to look at reviews on YouTube about the MacBook Air, which has a better single-core performance than every Intel Mac that exists, to understand what Apple has created. Without going into the rumors about an Apple Car, I can say that I'm not worried about innovation at Apple.\nIs there enough fuel to reach the peak?\nThe question remains whether there is still enough fuel to push Apple stock to a new all-time high. One obstacle could be too high a valuation. And even though we have seen that the picture here has improved strongly recently, a P/E ratio of almost 28 is not necessarily cheap. Nevertheless, we have to consider that Apple was sometimes (for example, in 2016) traded with a P/E ratio of approx. 10 (absolutely absurd from today's Captain Hindsight perspective).\nData by YCharts\nSo we can ask ourselves whether a P/E ratio of 28 is appropriate for a company like Apple. It helps to look at the company's expected future growth to put the still relatively high valuation into perspective. Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise from $3.28 in 2020 to $5.13 in 2021 and over $5.93 in 2024. This would increase the profit accruing to shareholders by over 80 percent within four years. In this respect, the forward P/E ratio for the expected figures in 2021 is only 23.\nThis brings us back to an area where I have less of a bellyache. Measured against the expected earnings for 2024, this even results in a P/E ratio of 20. In addition, we must not forget that Apple's forecasts are usually too low. The last time Apple missed the estimates was in Q2 2017. In Q2 2021, for example, the estimates for EPS were $0.99, Apple delivered $1.40. I think that the forecasts for the coming years are somewhat conservative from today's point of view, but that's perfectly okay). So there is enough fuel to justify further share price growth in the future because measured against the earnings figures expected in the medium term, Apple is not overvalued today. The same is true when we look at other companies in Apple's peer group.\nData by YChartsUpside potential in concreto\nEven with a relatively conservative discounted cash flow analysis, Apple is not overvalued at the moment. For calculating the DCF, I take the expected revenue of approx. $370 billion for 2022 into account. In the following years, I expect Apple to increase sales by 10 percent a year. As I said, this is a rather conservative calculation that already includes some downside scenarios (see below for details).\nI also expect an improvement in the operating margin. Therefore, for my DCF calculation, I work with an operating margin between 14 and 15 percent for the coming years. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation. But that puts me in the good average range of the last few years. Apple's revenue growth averaged 14 percent per year in the previous ten years and almost 10 percent per year in the last three years. So my calculation already assumes that Apple will not maintain the growth pace of more than 20 percent that it has shown recently. So, overall, we have the following data for our DCF calculation.\nDCF Model, source:www.alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nBased on my estimates, we see a fair intrinsic value of Apple's share at a share price of approx. $134. Compared to the current market price of $125, the company's shares are undervalued, offering an upside potential of 7 percent. That's not much, but it confirms my assessment above that the company is not overpriced.\nSource: alphaspread.com/estimates by author\nDownside risks\nApple stock is back in buy territory. That's a good thing. Nevertheless, there are some risks investors should be aware of. On the one hand, we should keep an eye on the general market sentiment. The fear of rising interest rates is currently hanging over tech stocks like a sword of Damocles.\nBut that's a thing we cannot influence. The best protection against such a \"higher rates\" scenario is to buy solid, profitable companies whose business does not suffer from higher rates and that do not have completely inflated multiples. And here, things are fine from my point of view. Apple has high but not fully decoupled multiples that will continue to unwind over the next few years, so we are essentially talking about medium-term risks here.\nIn addition, the company has an excellent balance sheet. In this respect, the company can operate relatively independently of the interest rate environment. The interest-bearing debt of $121 billion is offset by cash and cash equivalents of almost $70 billion. After dividends, the company had nearly $60 billion of free cash flow left in 2020.\nI am also relatively relaxed about the risk of slower growth due to the re-opening after easing the lockdown restrictions. Some analysts have downgraded Apple's share price target to $90. They assume that Apple's iPhone sales will go down in 2021. The arguments are that Apple had already sold so many iPhones in 2020, and consumers would spend money on vacations, travel, and restaurants than on an upgrade.\nIn the end, that is crystal ball reading. It's not entirely clear to me why past success precludes renewed success. Apple has often impressed with better-than-expected figures so far. Meanwhile, the other product can even cushion declines in iPhone sales. We could see this relatively clearly in Q1 2021, as iPhone sales fell by 3 percent due to the delayed launch of the iPhone 12. So yes, there may be fewer iPhone sales in 2021. But that's a short-term, trade-based view, which is fine but doesn't fit within the scope of this article and the author's investment approach.\nConclusion\nApple is not necessarily a bargain, but the recent consolidation has pushed the stock back into buyable territory. Market sentiment around concerns of rising inflation and interest rates remains a risk. Also, the opening of COVID-19 restrictions could slow down the growth rate somewhat. However, these are all rather short- and medium-term views, which are certainly interesting for swing traders and whatnot. As a long-term investor with a diversified portfolio, Apple is currently back on my list of potential buy candidates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["QNETCN","03086","TTTN"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":98,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/113566752"}
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