bounceback
2021-06-02
To the moon
LIVE MARKETS-Rates? No worries, they won't hurt equities
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No worries, they won't hurt equities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140241458","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 2 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. ","content":"<html><body><p>June 2 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com </p><p> RATES? NO WORRIES, THEY WON'T HURT EQUITIES (1401 GMT)</p><p> The equity valuation issue is mostly about future interest rates, with some investment banks flagging risks when U.S. bond yields rise above 3%.</p><p> But Blackrock analysts don't see interest rates rising too much, not even in the medium term.</p><p> \"Keeping yields low enough to ensure the viability of surging debt burdens in the developed world and stability in emerging markets is an important interaction between a fiscal and monetary policy that informs our views,\" they say.</p><p> \"We estimate if the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.5% or higher, debt servicing costs would exceed the 50-year average share-to-GDP of 2% as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office,\" they add.</p><p> They continue to prefer equities, and they see the equity risk premium (ERP) – their preferred gauge of equity valuations that accounts for changes in interest rates – in line with historical averages.</p><p> Within equities, they like developed markets and China, which is risky but worth betting on it.</p><p> They see \"persistent inflows to Asian assets\" as they believe many global investors \"remain underinvested and China's weight in global indexes grows.\"</p><p> \"Risks to China-exposed assets include China's high debt levels and U.S.-China conflicts, but we believe investors are compensated for these risks,\" they argue.</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> TRANSEUROPE (CRYPTO ETP) EXPRESS (1109 GMT)</p><p> European investor? Want more access to crypto? </p><p> Well, a glut of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are now live on Euronext stock exchanges in Paris and Amsterdam. </p><p> ETPs are popular with bigger investors who have this year helped fuel the wild ride for digital currencies, offering a simpler way to get exposure to crypto.</p><p> Investment firm WisdomTree, whose ETPs already trade in Germany and Switzerland, has launched bitcoin and ether ETPs on both exchanges, a move it says will tempt institutional investors waiting for signs of wider acceptance of crypto. </p><p> Ditto U.S. asset manager VanEck, which has brought euro-denominated bitcoin and ether ETPs to the Dutch and French exchanges. Britain's ETC Group completes the trio listing ETPs in Paris and Amsterdam - and will also next week launch the first bitcoin ETP on London's Aquis exchange.</p><p> Swiss issuer 21Shares has also listed three ETPs on Euronext in Paris, meanwhile.</p><p> (Tom Wilson) </p><p> *****</p><p> ECB: UNEVENTFUL JUNE MEETING? (1041 GMT)</p><p> Markets are increasingly convinced that next week's ECB meeting will prove uneventful.</p><p> Probably not even a mini-tapering – namely getting back to the first-quarter pace of bond purchases – is on the cards.</p><p> \"I think the ECB wants to have its hands free, so it will not take any relevant decision at its June’s meeting. I don’t expect any move or changes in its bond-buying pace,\" Andrea Ponti, co-head fixed income portfolio management at Kairos Partners SGR, tells us.</p><p> \"All in all, next week’s ECB meeting could fall into the category ‘exciting but uneventful,\" ING analysts add. \"The Thursday meeting could be packed with insightful information but probably not with tangible action.\"</p><p> \"Maintaining PEPP purchases at their current rate for another quarter (liquidity and seasonality of purchases allowing) should be the overriding influence,\" they say.</p><p> So what happens to bond yields post meeting? Analysts see the risks of renewed upward pressure given expectations for stronger economic growth and inflation. </p><p> ING says faster PEEP purchases won't stop higher yields but they will stabilize bond spreads (see chart below).</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> MINING FOR HIGHS (0919 GMT)</p><p> Rally in mining company shares were slowing down for a few weeks, but the bullish sentiment seems to be back with the basic materials stocks index in Europe rising 2% yesterday.</p><p> The question is what's new in the commodity prices backdrop.</p><p> According to Deutsche Bank analysts, who raised their aluminium and copper prices forecast by 14-17%, \"intensifying supply risks amidst a solid demand backdrop\" will continue to support prices.</p><p> They say that copper-producing countries (Chile, Peru, Zambia, etc.) are likely to increase taxation on miners, with Chile having already proposed onerous royalties.</p><p> \"Fiscal uncertainty is likely to deter investment and impact future supply; we have identified $50 billion of projects that are up for approval and could face delays,\" they say.</p><p> We raise our long-term prices as we believe new supply will have to be incentivised in relatively complex jurisdictions, they add.</p><p> The chart below shows the basic materials stock index</p><p> outperforming the Stoxx 600 and the the Stoxx 600 Optimised Cyclicals in the last few days.</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> RATES PRESSURE (0800 GMT)</p><p> Long-end real rates look too low and Goldman Sachs strategists say they see continued upward pressures, especially on real yields. And, any sharp increase in yields is likely put pressure back on stocks like in February and May.</p><p> Dovish signals from Fed is seen as the reason for rates remaining low despite inflation fears. </p><p> What to buy in such an environment?</p><p> GS believes energy offers the best inflation hedge even as Brent is trading above $70. </p><p> \"For investors concerned about higher inflation or hawkish policy surprises and the impact on the equity/bond correlation, we think commodities, especially in the energy space, still offer the best inflation hedge,\" GS adds.</p><p> The investment bank also recommends buying 'value' and non-US stocks, which are more negatively correlated with bonds.</p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> *****</p><p> JUST SHY OF YET ANOTHER RECORD (0724 GMT)</p><p> Oil & gas stocks are leading the mini-rally in Europe this morning as Brent crude extended gains to over $70 after OPEC+ stuck to their plan to cautiously bring back oil supply.</p><p> Reflation trade has been ruling the roost in early trades, following a similar move on Wall Street overnight. Industrials, autos and mining stocks are up 0.5%, while tech at the bottom of the table.</p><p> STOXX 600 is a point away from hitting yet another record.</p><p> Luxury stocks continue to rally in Europe, with Burberry rising 3% today. The sector is trading at a premium of 24%, a 9-year peak, over Nasdaq as the space has less to fear from this new inflationary world compared to tech.</p><p> In single stocks, high pressure water pump maker Interpump in Milan is jumping 6% after it agreed to buy White Drive Motors & Steering. Among fallers, ProSieben down 3.5% as it goes ex-div. </p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> *****</p><p> SPRINGTIME WALTZ (0708 GMT)</p><p> World stocks are holding near record highs hit overnight as strong U.S. manufacturing surveys and robust PMI readings in Europe lifted sentiment. </p><p> Investors, it appears, have reason enough to buy cyclical sectors like banks and energy over pandemic-favourites such as technology in a quiet start to a holiday-shortened week. </p><p> Of course, the calm may not last long with the all-important U.S. jobs report due on Friday. But for now U.S. stock futures are consolidating gains and European stocks have just opened higher. </p><p> Economists polled by Reuters predict payrolls likely increased by 664,000 jobs last month though the slowdown in hiring at factories could temper expectations for an acceleration in job growth.</p><p> Extending the optimistic data streak, Australia’s economy expanded by a real 1.8% in the three months to March, beating estimates. That puts the Antipodean economy in rare company with only five other countries boasting an economy that’s larger than pre-pandemic levels. </p><p> While the strong data elicited a familiar response from the bond and currency markets with sovereign yields subdued and the dollar struggling near 2021 lows, there are growing signs that inflationary pressures are gathering steam.</p><p> Deutsche Bank notes Tuesday's U.S. ISM data showed the prices paid measure, while slipping back slightly, is still the second highest reading for the measure since the 2008 global financial crisis. </p><p> There are also more signs of price pressures from the commodity markets -- brighter global growth prospects has lifted Brent crude prices to their highest levels since March.</p><p> In COVID news, Melbourne’s lockdown will be extended beyond the initial seven days announced last week while the UK recorded no COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday. The World Health Organization approved a COVID-19 vaccine made by Sinovac Biotech for emergency use listing, paving the way for a second Chinese shot to be used in poor countries.</p><p> And on the corporate front, Swiss contract drug manufacturer Lonza said a new production line in the Netherlands will produce ingredients for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. </p><p>Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:</p><p> - Data: German Retail Sales, UK mortgage approval and consumer credit data for April, Fed releases Beige Book.</p><p> - Central bank speakers: ECB's Villeroy, Elderson. Fed’s Harker, Evans, Kaplan.</p><p> (Saikat Chatterjee)</p><p> *****</p><p> FLAT AS PANCAKE (0547 GMT)</p><p> Futures point to a flat to slightly higher open for European stocks, with the benchmark STOXX 600 sitting close to record levels it hit on Tuesday.</p><p> Australia's solid GDP data, U.S. manufacturing activity on Tuesday and rising oil prices are factors that are helping global equities scale fresh record highs.</p><p> Value stocks were standout performers overnight in New York amid rising inflation concerns. That's playing up in Europe as well, with data showing inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro up 2% in May, breaking above the ECB's aim of \"below but close to 2%\".</p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> ***** </p><p> <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ miners yields USyield </p><p> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>LIVE MARKETS-Rates? No worries, they won't hurt equities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLIVE MARKETS-Rates? No worries, they won't hurt equities\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-02 20:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>June 2 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com </p><p> RATES? NO WORRIES, THEY WON'T HURT EQUITIES (1401 GMT)</p><p> The equity valuation issue is mostly about future interest rates, with some investment banks flagging risks when U.S. bond yields rise above 3%.</p><p> But Blackrock analysts don't see interest rates rising too much, not even in the medium term.</p><p> \"Keeping yields low enough to ensure the viability of surging debt burdens in the developed world and stability in emerging markets is an important interaction between a fiscal and monetary policy that informs our views,\" they say.</p><p> \"We estimate if the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.5% or higher, debt servicing costs would exceed the 50-year average share-to-GDP of 2% as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office,\" they add.</p><p> They continue to prefer equities, and they see the equity risk premium (ERP) – their preferred gauge of equity valuations that accounts for changes in interest rates – in line with historical averages.</p><p> Within equities, they like developed markets and China, which is risky but worth betting on it.</p><p> They see \"persistent inflows to Asian assets\" as they believe many global investors \"remain underinvested and China's weight in global indexes grows.\"</p><p> \"Risks to China-exposed assets include China's high debt levels and U.S.-China conflicts, but we believe investors are compensated for these risks,\" they argue.</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> TRANSEUROPE (CRYPTO ETP) EXPRESS (1109 GMT)</p><p> European investor? Want more access to crypto? </p><p> Well, a glut of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are now live on Euronext stock exchanges in Paris and Amsterdam. </p><p> ETPs are popular with bigger investors who have this year helped fuel the wild ride for digital currencies, offering a simpler way to get exposure to crypto.</p><p> Investment firm WisdomTree, whose ETPs already trade in Germany and Switzerland, has launched bitcoin and ether ETPs on both exchanges, a move it says will tempt institutional investors waiting for signs of wider acceptance of crypto. </p><p> Ditto U.S. asset manager VanEck, which has brought euro-denominated bitcoin and ether ETPs to the Dutch and French exchanges. Britain's ETC Group completes the trio listing ETPs in Paris and Amsterdam - and will also next week launch the first bitcoin ETP on London's Aquis exchange.</p><p> Swiss issuer 21Shares has also listed three ETPs on Euronext in Paris, meanwhile.</p><p> (Tom Wilson) </p><p> *****</p><p> ECB: UNEVENTFUL JUNE MEETING? (1041 GMT)</p><p> Markets are increasingly convinced that next week's ECB meeting will prove uneventful.</p><p> Probably not even a mini-tapering – namely getting back to the first-quarter pace of bond purchases – is on the cards.</p><p> \"I think the ECB wants to have its hands free, so it will not take any relevant decision at its June’s meeting. I don’t expect any move or changes in its bond-buying pace,\" Andrea Ponti, co-head fixed income portfolio management at Kairos Partners SGR, tells us.</p><p> \"All in all, next week’s ECB meeting could fall into the category ‘exciting but uneventful,\" ING analysts add. \"The Thursday meeting could be packed with insightful information but probably not with tangible action.\"</p><p> \"Maintaining PEPP purchases at their current rate for another quarter (liquidity and seasonality of purchases allowing) should be the overriding influence,\" they say.</p><p> So what happens to bond yields post meeting? Analysts see the risks of renewed upward pressure given expectations for stronger economic growth and inflation. </p><p> ING says faster PEEP purchases won't stop higher yields but they will stabilize bond spreads (see chart below).</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> MINING FOR HIGHS (0919 GMT)</p><p> Rally in mining company shares were slowing down for a few weeks, but the bullish sentiment seems to be back with the basic materials stocks index in Europe rising 2% yesterday.</p><p> The question is what's new in the commodity prices backdrop.</p><p> According to Deutsche Bank analysts, who raised their aluminium and copper prices forecast by 14-17%, \"intensifying supply risks amidst a solid demand backdrop\" will continue to support prices.</p><p> They say that copper-producing countries (Chile, Peru, Zambia, etc.) are likely to increase taxation on miners, with Chile having already proposed onerous royalties.</p><p> \"Fiscal uncertainty is likely to deter investment and impact future supply; we have identified $50 billion of projects that are up for approval and could face delays,\" they say.</p><p> We raise our long-term prices as we believe new supply will have to be incentivised in relatively complex jurisdictions, they add.</p><p> The chart below shows the basic materials stock index</p><p> outperforming the Stoxx 600 and the the Stoxx 600 Optimised Cyclicals in the last few days.</p><p> (Stefano Rebaudo)</p><p> *****</p><p> RATES PRESSURE (0800 GMT)</p><p> Long-end real rates look too low and Goldman Sachs strategists say they see continued upward pressures, especially on real yields. And, any sharp increase in yields is likely put pressure back on stocks like in February and May.</p><p> Dovish signals from Fed is seen as the reason for rates remaining low despite inflation fears. </p><p> What to buy in such an environment?</p><p> GS believes energy offers the best inflation hedge even as Brent is trading above $70. </p><p> \"For investors concerned about higher inflation or hawkish policy surprises and the impact on the equity/bond correlation, we think commodities, especially in the energy space, still offer the best inflation hedge,\" GS adds.</p><p> The investment bank also recommends buying 'value' and non-US stocks, which are more negatively correlated with bonds.</p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> *****</p><p> JUST SHY OF YET ANOTHER RECORD (0724 GMT)</p><p> Oil & gas stocks are leading the mini-rally in Europe this morning as Brent crude extended gains to over $70 after OPEC+ stuck to their plan to cautiously bring back oil supply.</p><p> Reflation trade has been ruling the roost in early trades, following a similar move on Wall Street overnight. Industrials, autos and mining stocks are up 0.5%, while tech at the bottom of the table.</p><p> STOXX 600 is a point away from hitting yet another record.</p><p> Luxury stocks continue to rally in Europe, with Burberry rising 3% today. The sector is trading at a premium of 24%, a 9-year peak, over Nasdaq as the space has less to fear from this new inflationary world compared to tech.</p><p> In single stocks, high pressure water pump maker Interpump in Milan is jumping 6% after it agreed to buy White Drive Motors & Steering. Among fallers, ProSieben down 3.5% as it goes ex-div. </p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> *****</p><p> SPRINGTIME WALTZ (0708 GMT)</p><p> World stocks are holding near record highs hit overnight as strong U.S. manufacturing surveys and robust PMI readings in Europe lifted sentiment. </p><p> Investors, it appears, have reason enough to buy cyclical sectors like banks and energy over pandemic-favourites such as technology in a quiet start to a holiday-shortened week. </p><p> Of course, the calm may not last long with the all-important U.S. jobs report due on Friday. But for now U.S. stock futures are consolidating gains and European stocks have just opened higher. </p><p> Economists polled by Reuters predict payrolls likely increased by 664,000 jobs last month though the slowdown in hiring at factories could temper expectations for an acceleration in job growth.</p><p> Extending the optimistic data streak, Australia’s economy expanded by a real 1.8% in the three months to March, beating estimates. That puts the Antipodean economy in rare company with only five other countries boasting an economy that’s larger than pre-pandemic levels. </p><p> While the strong data elicited a familiar response from the bond and currency markets with sovereign yields subdued and the dollar struggling near 2021 lows, there are growing signs that inflationary pressures are gathering steam.</p><p> Deutsche Bank notes Tuesday's U.S. ISM data showed the prices paid measure, while slipping back slightly, is still the second highest reading for the measure since the 2008 global financial crisis. </p><p> There are also more signs of price pressures from the commodity markets -- brighter global growth prospects has lifted Brent crude prices to their highest levels since March.</p><p> In COVID news, Melbourne’s lockdown will be extended beyond the initial seven days announced last week while the UK recorded no COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday. The World Health Organization approved a COVID-19 vaccine made by Sinovac Biotech for emergency use listing, paving the way for a second Chinese shot to be used in poor countries.</p><p> And on the corporate front, Swiss contract drug manufacturer Lonza said a new production line in the Netherlands will produce ingredients for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. </p><p>Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:</p><p> - Data: German Retail Sales, UK mortgage approval and consumer credit data for April, Fed releases Beige Book.</p><p> - Central bank speakers: ECB's Villeroy, Elderson. Fed’s Harker, Evans, Kaplan.</p><p> (Saikat Chatterjee)</p><p> *****</p><p> FLAT AS PANCAKE (0547 GMT)</p><p> Futures point to a flat to slightly higher open for European stocks, with the benchmark STOXX 600 sitting close to record levels it hit on Tuesday.</p><p> Australia's solid GDP data, U.S. manufacturing activity on Tuesday and rising oil prices are factors that are helping global equities scale fresh record highs.</p><p> Value stocks were standout performers overnight in New York amid rising inflation concerns. That's playing up in Europe as well, with data showing inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro up 2% in May, breaking above the ECB's aim of \"below but close to 2%\".</p><p> (Thyagaraju Adinarayan)</p><p> ***** </p><p> <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ miners yields USyield </p><p> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140241458","content_text":"June 2 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com RATES? NO WORRIES, THEY WON'T HURT EQUITIES (1401 GMT) The equity valuation issue is mostly about future interest rates, with some investment banks flagging risks when U.S. bond yields rise above 3%. But Blackrock analysts don't see interest rates rising too much, not even in the medium term. \"Keeping yields low enough to ensure the viability of surging debt burdens in the developed world and stability in emerging markets is an important interaction between a fiscal and monetary policy that informs our views,\" they say. \"We estimate if the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.5% or higher, debt servicing costs would exceed the 50-year average share-to-GDP of 2% as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office,\" they add. They continue to prefer equities, and they see the equity risk premium (ERP) – their preferred gauge of equity valuations that accounts for changes in interest rates – in line with historical averages. Within equities, they like developed markets and China, which is risky but worth betting on it. They see \"persistent inflows to Asian assets\" as they believe many global investors \"remain underinvested and China's weight in global indexes grows.\" \"Risks to China-exposed assets include China's high debt levels and U.S.-China conflicts, but we believe investors are compensated for these risks,\" they argue. (Stefano Rebaudo) ***** TRANSEUROPE (CRYPTO ETP) EXPRESS (1109 GMT) European investor? Want more access to crypto? Well, a glut of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are now live on Euronext stock exchanges in Paris and Amsterdam. ETPs are popular with bigger investors who have this year helped fuel the wild ride for digital currencies, offering a simpler way to get exposure to crypto. Investment firm WisdomTree, whose ETPs already trade in Germany and Switzerland, has launched bitcoin and ether ETPs on both exchanges, a move it says will tempt institutional investors waiting for signs of wider acceptance of crypto. Ditto U.S. asset manager VanEck, which has brought euro-denominated bitcoin and ether ETPs to the Dutch and French exchanges. Britain's ETC Group completes the trio listing ETPs in Paris and Amsterdam - and will also next week launch the first bitcoin ETP on London's Aquis exchange. Swiss issuer 21Shares has also listed three ETPs on Euronext in Paris, meanwhile. (Tom Wilson) ***** ECB: UNEVENTFUL JUNE MEETING? (1041 GMT) Markets are increasingly convinced that next week's ECB meeting will prove uneventful. Probably not even a mini-tapering – namely getting back to the first-quarter pace of bond purchases – is on the cards. \"I think the ECB wants to have its hands free, so it will not take any relevant decision at its June’s meeting. I don’t expect any move or changes in its bond-buying pace,\" Andrea Ponti, co-head fixed income portfolio management at Kairos Partners SGR, tells us. \"All in all, next week’s ECB meeting could fall into the category ‘exciting but uneventful,\" ING analysts add. \"The Thursday meeting could be packed with insightful information but probably not with tangible action.\" \"Maintaining PEPP purchases at their current rate for another quarter (liquidity and seasonality of purchases allowing) should be the overriding influence,\" they say. So what happens to bond yields post meeting? Analysts see the risks of renewed upward pressure given expectations for stronger economic growth and inflation. ING says faster PEEP purchases won't stop higher yields but they will stabilize bond spreads (see chart below). (Stefano Rebaudo) ***** MINING FOR HIGHS (0919 GMT) Rally in mining company shares were slowing down for a few weeks, but the bullish sentiment seems to be back with the basic materials stocks index in Europe rising 2% yesterday. The question is what's new in the commodity prices backdrop. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, who raised their aluminium and copper prices forecast by 14-17%, \"intensifying supply risks amidst a solid demand backdrop\" will continue to support prices. They say that copper-producing countries (Chile, Peru, Zambia, etc.) are likely to increase taxation on miners, with Chile having already proposed onerous royalties. \"Fiscal uncertainty is likely to deter investment and impact future supply; we have identified $50 billion of projects that are up for approval and could face delays,\" they say. We raise our long-term prices as we believe new supply will have to be incentivised in relatively complex jurisdictions, they add. The chart below shows the basic materials stock index outperforming the Stoxx 600 and the the Stoxx 600 Optimised Cyclicals in the last few days. (Stefano Rebaudo) ***** RATES PRESSURE (0800 GMT) Long-end real rates look too low and Goldman Sachs strategists say they see continued upward pressures, especially on real yields. And, any sharp increase in yields is likely put pressure back on stocks like in February and May. Dovish signals from Fed is seen as the reason for rates remaining low despite inflation fears. What to buy in such an environment? GS believes energy offers the best inflation hedge even as Brent is trading above $70. \"For investors concerned about higher inflation or hawkish policy surprises and the impact on the equity/bond correlation, we think commodities, especially in the energy space, still offer the best inflation hedge,\" GS adds. The investment bank also recommends buying 'value' and non-US stocks, which are more negatively correlated with bonds. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** JUST SHY OF YET ANOTHER RECORD (0724 GMT) Oil & gas stocks are leading the mini-rally in Europe this morning as Brent crude extended gains to over $70 after OPEC+ stuck to their plan to cautiously bring back oil supply. Reflation trade has been ruling the roost in early trades, following a similar move on Wall Street overnight. Industrials, autos and mining stocks are up 0.5%, while tech at the bottom of the table. STOXX 600 is a point away from hitting yet another record. Luxury stocks continue to rally in Europe, with Burberry rising 3% today. The sector is trading at a premium of 24%, a 9-year peak, over Nasdaq as the space has less to fear from this new inflationary world compared to tech. In single stocks, high pressure water pump maker Interpump in Milan is jumping 6% after it agreed to buy White Drive Motors & Steering. Among fallers, ProSieben down 3.5% as it goes ex-div. (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** SPRINGTIME WALTZ (0708 GMT) World stocks are holding near record highs hit overnight as strong U.S. manufacturing surveys and robust PMI readings in Europe lifted sentiment. Investors, it appears, have reason enough to buy cyclical sectors like banks and energy over pandemic-favourites such as technology in a quiet start to a holiday-shortened week. Of course, the calm may not last long with the all-important U.S. jobs report due on Friday. But for now U.S. stock futures are consolidating gains and European stocks have just opened higher. Economists polled by Reuters predict payrolls likely increased by 664,000 jobs last month though the slowdown in hiring at factories could temper expectations for an acceleration in job growth. Extending the optimistic data streak, Australia’s economy expanded by a real 1.8% in the three months to March, beating estimates. That puts the Antipodean economy in rare company with only five other countries boasting an economy that’s larger than pre-pandemic levels. While the strong data elicited a familiar response from the bond and currency markets with sovereign yields subdued and the dollar struggling near 2021 lows, there are growing signs that inflationary pressures are gathering steam. Deutsche Bank notes Tuesday's U.S. ISM data showed the prices paid measure, while slipping back slightly, is still the second highest reading for the measure since the 2008 global financial crisis. There are also more signs of price pressures from the commodity markets -- brighter global growth prospects has lifted Brent crude prices to their highest levels since March. In COVID news, Melbourne’s lockdown will be extended beyond the initial seven days announced last week while the UK recorded no COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday. The World Health Organization approved a COVID-19 vaccine made by Sinovac Biotech for emergency use listing, paving the way for a second Chinese shot to be used in poor countries. And on the corporate front, Swiss contract drug manufacturer Lonza said a new production line in the Netherlands will produce ingredients for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday: - Data: German Retail Sales, UK mortgage approval and consumer credit data for April, Fed releases Beige Book. - Central bank speakers: ECB's Villeroy, Elderson. Fed’s Harker, Evans, Kaplan. (Saikat Chatterjee) ***** FLAT AS PANCAKE (0547 GMT) Futures point to a flat to slightly higher open for European stocks, with the benchmark STOXX 600 sitting close to record levels it hit on Tuesday. Australia's solid GDP data, U.S. manufacturing activity on Tuesday and rising oil prices are factors that are helping global equities scale fresh record highs. Value stocks were standout performers overnight in New York amid rising inflation concerns. That's playing up in Europe as well, with data showing inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro up 2% in May, breaking above the ECB's aim of \"below but close to 2%\". (Thyagaraju Adinarayan) ***** <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ miners yields USyield ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/113445240"}
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