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2021-06-02

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Santoli’s Tuesday market notes: Meme stocks are hopping, and the broader market isn’t a fan

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The same pattern is at work in today’s tape, with a flattish benchmark but most stocks higher and led by cyclical groups (energy, industrials, financials), and large-cap growth costing theS&P 500its opening pop.This absolutely could simply be a trip by the S&P 500 up to the top of its six- to seven-week range in a maturing bull market digesting a huge move. Not sure this qualifies as the odds-on likelihood, but certainly a fair chance this is how it goes from here.The S&P 500 either crossed 4,200 or hovered just above it on about a third of all trading days dating back to mid-April. This morning’s low was 4,199.88. You tell me if traders and trading machines think there’s some importance to that level.The “typical stock” is outperforming even since April 16, when the S&P started to flatten out. Net positive. More stocks up than down, same conclusion. No free passes here, but the weight of the evidence tilts faintly toward the bullish side.This sideways phase coincided precisely with the run of phenomenal upside earnings surprises that has helped jack the 2021 consensus for S&P 500 profits almost to $200 a share from $180-ish a few months ago. This has compressed price-earnings, very typical of “year two” of a profit/market cycle. How low must the P/E go, given super-loose financial conditions but the shadow of stickier inflationary trends? That’s the big macro call to be made.The market’s leadership profile has been indecisive from day to day and frustrating to tactical traders – which has helped to moderate sentiment (unusually high “neutral” answers in surveys) and flatten out hedge fund positioning. The pure reopening stocks peaked in March, so unclear how much is left, but global reflation/reopening proxies (industrials, energy, foreign markets) are firmer.The bounce in the hypergrowth/pre-profit/ARK stocks now looks like it’s at a “show me” point. Double-digit percentage gains in the past couple weeks, but still in downtrends and 25% to 30% off February highs.Meme stock wildness has decisively restarted, and the broader tape tends not to like this. No solid causal statistical link but circumstantially it seems when theAMC/GME/BBcluster is hopping, the overall market loses a bit of steam.The AMC serial capital raising and social media stampede are creating a fascinating dynamic. We now have a company with three times its peak pre-Covid market cap and twice its highest pre-pandemic enterprise value (including all the debt). The bull case seems to be that it will pay its back rent (hooray), cut into its debt, roll up other distressed theaters in hopes of maybe, just maybe, riding a movie release rebound back to some level that’s still short of peak attendance of a few years ago, when its stock market value was one-third today’s level. The latest equity issuance to a hedge fund that likely holds the debt andwas reportedly free to flip the stock immediately. Options volume in the stock are stratospheric. Fun to watch, treacherous to play.Market breadth today quite solid despite slim benchmark gains. VIX lifting back to 18 – part of this is mechanical post-holiday weekend rebuild of options premium, part of it likely the meme stock options frenzy filtering into broader hedging costs as dealers try to position for the swings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/113177574"}