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2021-06-03
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The Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation
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The collection of anecdotes gathered by the 12 regional Fed banks gives investors a look at the current economy from the ground, as described by businesses across the country.</p><p>“Looking at the description of growth, it is hard not to be optimistic,” say Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska. “Looking at the description of the labor market and inflation, however, that optimism fades somewhat.”</p><p>From growth to inflation, here are the main themes jumping out of the book released Wednesday.</p><p><b>Economic expansion</b></p><p>The national economy expanded at a “moderate pace” over the past two month or so, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, the beige book says. Several districts cited the positive effects of increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures. Manufacturing boomed and activity across the leisure, hospitality and tourism industries strengthened.</p><p>As the Boston Fed put it: Restaurants across Massachusetts experienced a dramatic uptick in sales in April and May, with recent revenues exceeding those in the same period of 2019. The return of widespread outdoor dining fueled the initial surge in sales, but more recently dining room sales also increased. That’s having a knock-on effect; strong restaurant sales are buoying retail property leasing, the district reported.</p><p><b>Supply-chain disruptions</b></p><p>Growth would be even better if not for severe supply-chain disruptions.Light vehicle sales remained solid but were constrained by tight inventories, while significant supply chain challenges continued to disrupt factory production and construction activity. Home builders across the nation reported strong demand, supported by low mortgage rates, outpaced their capacity to build and prompted some to limit sales.</p><p>Some form of “supply chain problems” appeared 29 times in the beige book. Every district reported trouble. In Cleveland, “supply chain bottlenecks were constraining growth by causing extended lead times, depleted inventories, and escalating materials and transportation costs.” And in Chicago, “contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. They expected little improvement through the end of the year,” the book says.</p><p><b>Labor shortage</b></p><p>Workers are chief among inputs that are in short supply. Difficulties in hiring are exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and inflating prices, impeding growth and cutting into some companies’ profits.</p><p>While labor shortages have been concentrated in lower-paying industries, there are signs the problem is spreading. “Reports of labor shortages were more widespread across sectors and skill levels than the last report,” the Dallas Fed reports.</p><p>Many businesses ranked staffing as a top concern, the New York Fed says, pointing to a combination of workers’ health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions, and a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages, the district adds.</p><p>In San Francisco, employers in the construction, manufacturing, technology, retail, healthcare, restaurant, and hospitality sectors raised wages to retain and attract workers for both high- and low-skilled jobs. In addition to raising wages, these employers offered incentives such as sign-on bonuses, reduced or flexible hours, and the ability to work remotely, the regional bank notes.</p><p>Overall, the beige book says, the lack of job candidates prevented some firms from increasing output and, less commonly, led some businesses to reduce operating hours.</p><p><b>Rising prices</b></p><p>Overall price pressures increased further since the last report, the book says, and businesses anticipate further acceleration in the months ahead.</p><p>“Looking ahead one year, the prices that firms anticipate receiving for their own goods and services rose further still—after the firms reported moderately high expectations last quarter,” says the Philadelphia Fed. “Unlike in prior quarters, firms now expect general consumer inflation to be even higher than firm prices,” a signal that firms are starting to pass through more of the price inflation they’re experiencing—and red flag that hot inflation may not be so temporary. </p><p>In Cleveland, reports of firms’ raising their selling prices became more widespread. Contacts now expect it to take longer than previously anticipated for supply chain issues to be resolved, and that expectation is driving more aggressive pricing, the regional bank reports. About half of the bank’s contacts plan to raise their selling prices in the second half of the year, with most of those firms intending to do so in a way “that will at least preserve their margins.”</p><p>Illustrating how fast prices are moving, one real estate developer in Cleveland said quotes from general contractors were now valid for only 10 days, versus as many as 180 days prior to the pandemic.</p><p>“Inflation pressures reported by business contacts seem to be much more significant than the comments from the Fed itself would suggest,” say Simons and Markowska of Jefferies. “There is nothing in here that suggests business leaders expect input cost increases or higher selling prices will be ‘transitory.’”</p><p><b>Ongoing optimism</b></p><p>Despite widespread shortages and pricing pressure, businesses across the country remain optimistic thanks to solid demand. Consumer spending has picked up from New York to Kansas City to San Francisco, and districts across the nation report tight customer inventories as firms race to replenish stocks.</p><p>“Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook,” the Boston Fed says, sentiment that comes through the latest beige book as businesses enjoy booming demand—even if they can’t sufficiently meet it.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Take on the Economy—From Growth to Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 14:40 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortages-supply-chain-woes-color-the-feds-latest-view-of-broad-economy-51622663753?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions.That’s the main takeaway from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortages-supply-chain-woes-color-the-feds-latest-view-of-broad-economy-51622663753?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/labor-shortages-supply-chain-woes-color-the-feds-latest-view-of-broad-economy-51622663753?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143927575","content_text":"Economic activity across the U.S. sped up from early April to late May as vaccinated consumers returned to normal activities and businesses dropped pandemic restrictions.That’s the main takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s latest beige book, which we read so you don’t have to. The collection of anecdotes gathered by the 12 regional Fed banks gives investors a look at the current economy from the ground, as described by businesses across the country.“Looking at the description of growth, it is hard not to be optimistic,” say Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska. “Looking at the description of the labor market and inflation, however, that optimism fades somewhat.”From growth to inflation, here are the main themes jumping out of the book released Wednesday.Economic expansionThe national economy expanded at a “moderate pace” over the past two month or so, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, the beige book says. Several districts cited the positive effects of increased vaccination rates and relaxed social distancing measures. Manufacturing boomed and activity across the leisure, hospitality and tourism industries strengthened.As the Boston Fed put it: Restaurants across Massachusetts experienced a dramatic uptick in sales in April and May, with recent revenues exceeding those in the same period of 2019. The return of widespread outdoor dining fueled the initial surge in sales, but more recently dining room sales also increased. That’s having a knock-on effect; strong restaurant sales are buoying retail property leasing, the district reported.Supply-chain disruptionsGrowth would be even better if not for severe supply-chain disruptions.Light vehicle sales remained solid but were constrained by tight inventories, while significant supply chain challenges continued to disrupt factory production and construction activity. Home builders across the nation reported strong demand, supported by low mortgage rates, outpaced their capacity to build and prompted some to limit sales.Some form of “supply chain problems” appeared 29 times in the beige book. Every district reported trouble. In Cleveland, “supply chain bottlenecks were constraining growth by causing extended lead times, depleted inventories, and escalating materials and transportation costs.” And in Chicago, “contacts noted that supply chain issues had worsened, particularly for raw materials, microchips, and specialty parts. They expected little improvement through the end of the year,” the book says.Labor shortageWorkers are chief among inputs that are in short supply. Difficulties in hiring are exacerbating supply-chain disruptions and inflating prices, impeding growth and cutting into some companies’ profits.While labor shortages have been concentrated in lower-paying industries, there are signs the problem is spreading. “Reports of labor shortages were more widespread across sectors and skill levels than the last report,” the Dallas Fed reports.Many businesses ranked staffing as a top concern, the New York Fed says, pointing to a combination of workers’ health concerns, child-care constraints, and generous unemployment benefits. A major New York City employment agency noted a significant increase in hiring and a greater sense of urgency to fill open positions, and a substantial proportion of businesses across all major industry sectors plan to raise wages, the district adds.In San Francisco, employers in the construction, manufacturing, technology, retail, healthcare, restaurant, and hospitality sectors raised wages to retain and attract workers for both high- and low-skilled jobs. In addition to raising wages, these employers offered incentives such as sign-on bonuses, reduced or flexible hours, and the ability to work remotely, the regional bank notes.Overall, the beige book says, the lack of job candidates prevented some firms from increasing output and, less commonly, led some businesses to reduce operating hours.Rising pricesOverall price pressures increased further since the last report, the book says, and businesses anticipate further acceleration in the months ahead.“Looking ahead one year, the prices that firms anticipate receiving for their own goods and services rose further still—after the firms reported moderately high expectations last quarter,” says the Philadelphia Fed. “Unlike in prior quarters, firms now expect general consumer inflation to be even higher than firm prices,” a signal that firms are starting to pass through more of the price inflation they’re experiencing—and red flag that hot inflation may not be so temporary. In Cleveland, reports of firms’ raising their selling prices became more widespread. Contacts now expect it to take longer than previously anticipated for supply chain issues to be resolved, and that expectation is driving more aggressive pricing, the regional bank reports. About half of the bank’s contacts plan to raise their selling prices in the second half of the year, with most of those firms intending to do so in a way “that will at least preserve their margins.”Illustrating how fast prices are moving, one real estate developer in Cleveland said quotes from general contractors were now valid for only 10 days, versus as many as 180 days prior to the pandemic.“Inflation pressures reported by business contacts seem to be much more significant than the comments from the Fed itself would suggest,” say Simons and Markowska of Jefferies. “There is nothing in here that suggests business leaders expect input cost increases or higher selling prices will be ‘transitory.’”Ongoing optimismDespite widespread shortages and pricing pressure, businesses across the country remain optimistic thanks to solid demand. Consumer spending has picked up from New York to Kansas City to San Francisco, and districts across the nation report tight customer inventories as firms race to replenish stocks.“Contacts generally maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook,” the Boston Fed says, sentiment that comes through the latest beige book as businesses enjoy booming demand—even if they can’t sufficiently meet it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/111757178"}
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