Mookey
2021-04-29
Time to hold more?
Alibaba: Our Top Consumer Discretionary Pick For The Rest Of 2021
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Still, we have constructed an options strategy that increases our margin of safety and (potentially) our gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a1c362351a6868fd966648734b2371\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\"><span>Photo by alexsl/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>On to Consumer Discretionary sector...</b></p>\n<p>As we continue our anniversary series by covering each sector and its current state in the market, my co-Pilot on Wheel of Fortune,<i>The Fortune Teller</i>, has already published his article focusing on the Consumer Discretionary sector. In this article, we are presenting our \"Top Pick\" amongst our holdings in the sector for the remainder of 2021.</p>\n<p>So far, we have presented the following sectors, along with our respective Top Picks:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>Sector / Macro (TFT articles)</td>\n <td>Top Pick / Micro (Nick articles)</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Energy</td>\n <td>MPLX LP</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Financials</td>\n <td>China Life Insurance</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Utilities</td>\n <td>Vistra Corp.</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Industrials</td>\n <td><p>Teekay LNG Partners</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Healthcare</td>\n <td>Bristol-Myers Squibb</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Communications</td>\n <td><p>ViacomCBS</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Consumer Discretionary</td>\n <td><p>This article</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>In TFT's article, we go on to explain that while the Consumer Discretionary sector offers some of the highest growth opportunities, valuation-wise, it has expanded massively.</p>\n<p>If you were to ask one which sector is trading at the highest forward multiple, you are more than likely to get \"Technology\" as an answer. Yet, Technology looks like a real bargain compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7de88f8e5bbb746deca265a0f7e76b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\"></p>\n<p>The sector's largest constituent, Amazon (AMZN), while trading at a forward P/E of around 72, its extended valuation can reasonably be justified by the company's growth potential (as has been the case for decades now).</p>\n<p>The company is expected to raise its top line by ~17%, and its bottom line by ~38%, on average, over the next two years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03fdffc5203d86aa33de98597800e088\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>Combined with the fact Amazon might be the most complete/round Consumer Discretionary play out there (AWS), its stock would be a great contender for our \"Top Pick\" title.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, we decided that instead of sticking to the well-known but very expensive ingredients by selecting a stock amongst our U.S.-based holdings, we could simply \"import\" way cheaper ingredients from China.</p>\n<p>While Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and The Home Depot (HD) are trading 7.7%, on average, below their recent peak, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA),JD.comInc. (JD), and Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD) (all three of which we are Long) are trading 28.4%, on average.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe514730abba09cdef820b137debbc3c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>We believe that many Chinese companies in the sector offer similar (and sometimes greater) growth prospects to their American counterparts but at much more attractive valuations. With the sector trading at an extreme forward multiple, it makes for a wise choice to pick a reasonably-priced high-quality growth company amongst our holdings. One can discover growth in China relatively easily, but unearthing high quality is more questionable. We found that amongst our holdings, the company meeting all our criteria is Alibaba (BABA). The stock offers all of the growth traits a company in the Consumer Discretionary sector displays while being highly profitable, of high quality, and most importantly, trading at a valuation that seems too hard to keep on ignoring.</p>\n<p><b>Why Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>As we just mentioned, Alibaba's valuation against its combined financial qualities has formed a fantastic upside opportunity. We have always believed in Alibaba as a long-term pick. However, the stock currently offers a marvelous short-term upside potential as well (Hence our top pick for the rest of 2021.)</p>\n<p>Analyst estimates for Alibaba's revenues over the next few years have been expanding at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98fe0db28f1b87aead0838b9f86426f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the company's margins remain some of the most impressive in the market. Net income margins are north of 20% consistently, often pushing much higher, as Alibaba takes advantage of its massive economies of scale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f98047e02bd9c009e8c535f41d599fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>Amid high revenue growth estimates and sky-high margins, Alibaba is expected to keep on growing its EPS quite rapidly. Yet, at its current valuation, Alibaba's profitability growth is hardly being appreciated by the market, as the Forward P/E column illustrates in the table below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ee01c9b4208793d2550943aadedce4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>On the one hand, we know that Chinese stocks are by nature subject to humbler valuations against their American peers. Over the past few years, Alibaba's forward P/E has hardly ever crossed 35 despite that it would likely attract double this multiple were it based in the U.S. ceteris paribus. On the other hand, the stock is currently trading at an all-time high low valuation, which by no means can we see lasting based on Alibaba's financials and their expected growth rates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490c7e226abf65b105fe46f928d07a95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>We believe that the market will eventually act on Alibaba's undervaluation at some point, unlocking the stock's current upside. Even if the forward P/E were to shift to a very reasonable and still humble, in our view, forward P/E of 33, that translates to a phenomenal upside of 50%.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that we are well-aware of risks related to holding Chinese equities such as Alibaba, with the company recently asked to pay $2.75B in fines by the Chinese regulators. However, what the market seems to be labeling as \"high risk\" when it comes to Alibaba is likely mostly a psychological phenomenon. The company continues to be a growth juggernaut, with no signs of slowing down.</p>\n<p>As far as the recent fine, the $2.75B equates to around 3.8% of Alibaba's cash position, or what the company makes every couple of weeks or so.</p>\n<p>To more accurately illustrate why Mr. Market has lost touch with reality when it comes to valuing Alibaba, let's value the stock by discounting its future expected cash flows in a prudent manner. Since Alibaba is a free cash flow generation machine, a DCF valuation method fits quite well in this example.</p>\n<p>As you can see, we have set a prudent revenue pathway, forecasting a declining growth in Alibaba's turnover expansion. This is despite Alibaba's revenue growth re-accelerating as of its past couple of quarters. We have also set the operating margin just over 17%, in line with the company's historical average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2cab028dffbd7e5547c29bd4f0d8eca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\"><span>Source: Alpha Spread</span></p>\n<p>We have set CAPEX as % of revenues at 2.81%, also in line with the company's historical average, while using a discount rate of 6.40%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08418205cec65acbe7c65eafa0d7be9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: Alpha Spread</span></p>\n<p>Plugging all the required variables together, and we come out with an intrinsic value per share of around $350, suggesting an upside of nearly 50% from the stock's current price levels, which matches our previous example of a potential valuation expansion to around 33 times the stock's forward EPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4312c47fc981a4df8dda7926d77f6a05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>Source: Alpha Spread</span></p>\n<p>Conclusion and our play</p>\n<p>Amongst our growth holdings in the Consumer Discretionary sector, it becomes quite apparent to us that Alibaba offers the highest short-term (and probably long/er term) upside potential due to the stock's undeniably underpriced valuation.</p>\n<p>Still, we are well aware that the market will not suddenly swing moods resulting in our desired outcome. Hence we have constructed our position in a way that reflects future potential headwinds.</p>\n<p>Besides holding the stock, we have also covered our position by selling the following CALL options. Here are the possible scenarios for selling this option:</p>\n<p><b>SELL</b> <b>BABA</b> <b>01/21/2022 320.00 COVERED CALL @ $26.40</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ae9ebcac093b51fb2f891a75422efa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Can BABA move to $346.40 (which is still under our DCF fair value price) over the next 8 months, turning this option sale into a loss on a net basis? Anything can happen.</p>\n<p>Still, the options should increase our margin of safety and help us profit further by remaining cautiously optimistic, considering that Mr. Market is a bit unlikely to suddenly see a swinging sentiment.</p>\n<p>Simultaneously, we have sold the following PUTs, as we would love to get some additional BABA at a further discount if the stock price remains depressed.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>SELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 200.00 PUT @ $29.25</li>\n <li>SELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 220.00 PUT @ $39.90</li>\n <li>SELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 230.00 PUT @ $45.00</li>\n <li>SELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 240.00 PUT @ $51.00</li>\n <li>SELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 250.00 PUT @ $57.30</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If BABA expires between $220-$280, we're at the sweet spot in terms of maximizing the returns on the options.</p>\n<p>My co-pilot for running Wheel of Fortune,<i>The Fortune Teller</i>, will follow up on this article with his next sector coverage.</p>\n<p>So stay tuned to him, stay tuned to this series (we hope to cover as many sectors and top picks as possible), and stay tuned to the below special offer.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Our Top Consumer Discretionary Pick For The Rest Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 10:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422086-alibaba-stock-baba-top-consumer-discretionary-pick-for-rest-of-2021><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Consumer Discretionary sector offers some of the highest growth opportunities but at greatly expanded valuations.\nAlibaba enjoys all of the high-growth, high-profitability characteristics...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422086-alibaba-stock-baba-top-consumer-discretionary-pick-for-rest-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422086-alibaba-stock-baba-top-consumer-discretionary-pick-for-rest-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143944276","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Consumer Discretionary sector offers some of the highest growth opportunities but at greatly expanded valuations.\nAlibaba enjoys all of the high-growth, high-profitability characteristics that would earn its stock a premium valuation, though the stock trades at a discount instead.\nThe stock (has one of) the most attractive short-term upside(s) in the sector. Still, we have constructed an options strategy that increases our margin of safety and (potentially) our gains.\n\nPhoto by alexsl/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nOn to Consumer Discretionary sector...\nAs we continue our anniversary series by covering each sector and its current state in the market, my co-Pilot on Wheel of Fortune,The Fortune Teller, has already published his article focusing on the Consumer Discretionary sector. In this article, we are presenting our \"Top Pick\" amongst our holdings in the sector for the remainder of 2021.\nSo far, we have presented the following sectors, along with our respective Top Picks:\n\n\n\nSector / Macro (TFT articles)\nTop Pick / Micro (Nick articles)\n\n\nEnergy\nMPLX LP\n\n\nFinancials\nChina Life Insurance\n\n\nUtilities\nVistra Corp.\n\n\nIndustrials\nTeekay LNG Partners\n\n\nHealthcare\nBristol-Myers Squibb\n\n\nCommunications\nViacomCBS\n\n\nConsumer Discretionary\nThis article\n\n\n\nIn TFT's article, we go on to explain that while the Consumer Discretionary sector offers some of the highest growth opportunities, valuation-wise, it has expanded massively.\nIf you were to ask one which sector is trading at the highest forward multiple, you are more than likely to get \"Technology\" as an answer. Yet, Technology looks like a real bargain compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector.\n\nThe sector's largest constituent, Amazon (AMZN), while trading at a forward P/E of around 72, its extended valuation can reasonably be justified by the company's growth potential (as has been the case for decades now).\nThe company is expected to raise its top line by ~17%, and its bottom line by ~38%, on average, over the next two years.\n\nCombined with the fact Amazon might be the most complete/round Consumer Discretionary play out there (AWS), its stock would be a great contender for our \"Top Pick\" title.\nOn the other hand, we decided that instead of sticking to the well-known but very expensive ingredients by selecting a stock amongst our U.S.-based holdings, we could simply \"import\" way cheaper ingredients from China.\nWhile Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and The Home Depot (HD) are trading 7.7%, on average, below their recent peak, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA),JD.comInc. (JD), and Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD) (all three of which we are Long) are trading 28.4%, on average.\n\nWe believe that many Chinese companies in the sector offer similar (and sometimes greater) growth prospects to their American counterparts but at much more attractive valuations. With the sector trading at an extreme forward multiple, it makes for a wise choice to pick a reasonably-priced high-quality growth company amongst our holdings. One can discover growth in China relatively easily, but unearthing high quality is more questionable. We found that amongst our holdings, the company meeting all our criteria is Alibaba (BABA). The stock offers all of the growth traits a company in the Consumer Discretionary sector displays while being highly profitable, of high quality, and most importantly, trading at a valuation that seems too hard to keep on ignoring.\nWhy Alibaba\nAs we just mentioned, Alibaba's valuation against its combined financial qualities has formed a fantastic upside opportunity. We have always believed in Alibaba as a long-term pick. However, the stock currently offers a marvelous short-term upside potential as well (Hence our top pick for the rest of 2021.)\nAnalyst estimates for Alibaba's revenues over the next few years have been expanding at a rapid pace.\n\nMeanwhile, the company's margins remain some of the most impressive in the market. Net income margins are north of 20% consistently, often pushing much higher, as Alibaba takes advantage of its massive economies of scale.\n\nAmid high revenue growth estimates and sky-high margins, Alibaba is expected to keep on growing its EPS quite rapidly. Yet, at its current valuation, Alibaba's profitability growth is hardly being appreciated by the market, as the Forward P/E column illustrates in the table below.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn the one hand, we know that Chinese stocks are by nature subject to humbler valuations against their American peers. Over the past few years, Alibaba's forward P/E has hardly ever crossed 35 despite that it would likely attract double this multiple were it based in the U.S. ceteris paribus. On the other hand, the stock is currently trading at an all-time high low valuation, which by no means can we see lasting based on Alibaba's financials and their expected growth rates.\n\nWe believe that the market will eventually act on Alibaba's undervaluation at some point, unlocking the stock's current upside. Even if the forward P/E were to shift to a very reasonable and still humble, in our view, forward P/E of 33, that translates to a phenomenal upside of 50%.\nKeep in mind that we are well-aware of risks related to holding Chinese equities such as Alibaba, with the company recently asked to pay $2.75B in fines by the Chinese regulators. However, what the market seems to be labeling as \"high risk\" when it comes to Alibaba is likely mostly a psychological phenomenon. The company continues to be a growth juggernaut, with no signs of slowing down.\nAs far as the recent fine, the $2.75B equates to around 3.8% of Alibaba's cash position, or what the company makes every couple of weeks or so.\nTo more accurately illustrate why Mr. Market has lost touch with reality when it comes to valuing Alibaba, let's value the stock by discounting its future expected cash flows in a prudent manner. Since Alibaba is a free cash flow generation machine, a DCF valuation method fits quite well in this example.\nAs you can see, we have set a prudent revenue pathway, forecasting a declining growth in Alibaba's turnover expansion. This is despite Alibaba's revenue growth re-accelerating as of its past couple of quarters. We have also set the operating margin just over 17%, in line with the company's historical average.\nSource: Alpha Spread\nWe have set CAPEX as % of revenues at 2.81%, also in line with the company's historical average, while using a discount rate of 6.40%.\nSource: Alpha Spread\nPlugging all the required variables together, and we come out with an intrinsic value per share of around $350, suggesting an upside of nearly 50% from the stock's current price levels, which matches our previous example of a potential valuation expansion to around 33 times the stock's forward EPS.\nSource: Alpha Spread\nConclusion and our play\nAmongst our growth holdings in the Consumer Discretionary sector, it becomes quite apparent to us that Alibaba offers the highest short-term (and probably long/er term) upside potential due to the stock's undeniably underpriced valuation.\nStill, we are well aware that the market will not suddenly swing moods resulting in our desired outcome. Hence we have constructed our position in a way that reflects future potential headwinds.\nBesides holding the stock, we have also covered our position by selling the following CALL options. Here are the possible scenarios for selling this option:\nSELL BABA 01/21/2022 320.00 COVERED CALL @ $26.40\nSource: Author\nCan BABA move to $346.40 (which is still under our DCF fair value price) over the next 8 months, turning this option sale into a loss on a net basis? Anything can happen.\nStill, the options should increase our margin of safety and help us profit further by remaining cautiously optimistic, considering that Mr. Market is a bit unlikely to suddenly see a swinging sentiment.\nSimultaneously, we have sold the following PUTs, as we would love to get some additional BABA at a further discount if the stock price remains depressed.\n\nSELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 200.00 PUT @ $29.25\nSELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 220.00 PUT @ $39.90\nSELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 230.00 PUT @ $45.00\nSELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 240.00 PUT @ $51.00\nSELL (to open) BABA 01/21/2022 250.00 PUT @ $57.30\n\nIf BABA expires between $220-$280, we're at the sweet spot in terms of maximizing the returns on the options.\nMy co-pilot for running Wheel of Fortune,The Fortune Teller, will follow up on this article with his next sector coverage.\nSo stay tuned to him, stay tuned to this series (we hope to cover as many sectors and top picks as possible), and stay tuned to the below special offer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TWX","TIME"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/109194864"}
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