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2021-05-03

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Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen

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Despite a recent drop in price, PLUG stock is currently up about 535% in the past year.\nPlug Power wants to create a market for hydrogen fuel. After building a business in hydrogen-powered forklifts, the companybought a Tennessee plantthat could convert waste from ammonia production into hydrogen&nbsp;for sale&nbsp;last year.\nAround the time I first wrote about this in October, speculators discovered Plug Power stock. In January, after it signed a warrant deal with&nbsp;Amazon.Com(NASDAQ:AMZN) and a supply contract with&nbsp;Walmart&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT), I again covered&nbsp;Plug Power’s promise.\nSince then, the stock has crashed, falling from $73/share to a recent low below $27. Does this mean the promises were false?\nNo.\nShort Term vs. Long Term\nThe promise remains, but it’s&nbsp;a long-term promise, not a short-term one. Speculators have no concept of the long-term.\nIn October, for instance, our Luke Lango&nbsp;predicted&nbsp;a Plug Power move to $35. Based on fundamentals that would make sense, over time. But speculators have no time. They saw the promise as a reality and bid the stock up, far beyond Luke’s target.\nThat run-up was not justified. It’s going to take years to build hydrogen infrastructure. Right now the market is mainly found in warehouses and utility-grade back-ups from&nbsp;FuelCell Energy&nbsp;(NASDAQ:FCEL), which aren’t usually on.\nThe promise, however, remains. Last month Plug Power signed a deal to use energy from a hydroelectric plant in Pennsylvania to create hydrogen from water&nbsp;using hydrolysis.Electricity can separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. Plug Power can harvest the hydrogen for fuel. When that fuel is “burned” in a fuel cell, the result is energy and water. I believe the water should be collected for re-use.\nValuing Plug Power\nOver the next 5-10 years, Plug Power is going to sign more deals like this. It’s going to sell more hydrogen forklifts, because gasoline engines shouldn’t be running in an enclosed space. Grandview Research projects the hydrogen market will grow at a 5.7% rate&nbsp;through 2028.A Markets and Markets Report is more optimistic, predicting growth of&nbsp;9.3%.\nRight now, however, most hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refining. Ammonia production, which Plug Power is taking advantage of in Tennessee, is also common. So-called “green” hydrogen, as with the Pennsylvania hydroelectric project, is still&nbsp;a small piece of the market.&nbsp;\nPlug Power stock is simply out ahead of its skis. The company is still in the investment stage, losing far more money than it takes in to&nbsp;build an asset base.Most of its assets are still&nbsp;in cash. The current valuation of around $17 billion is hard to justify based on $436 million in property, plant, and equipment, or $1.37 billion in cash.\nPlug Power’s decision to&nbsp;bundle research into cost of goods sold, meanwhile, has caused the plaintiff’s bar tocry foulsince the stock began falling. Even optimists like Stephen Calder Byrd of&nbsp;Morgan Stanley&nbsp;(NYSE:MS) are calling risk and reward balanced,cutting their ratingson the stock.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe stock market is not the economy.\nJust because a stock is overpriced, and just because its speculative bubble has popped, doesn’t mean the opportunity is gone.\nWhen I first wrote about Plug Power the stock was trading at $17.60/share. If you bought the stock then, you have a fat profit and should take it.\nHydrogen is a long-term trend. It’s an investment, not a trade. If you are going to buy this stock, as an investment, be prepared to hold it for a long time, and be prepared for some dark times. That’s how great industries are built.","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/04/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen/>InvestorPlace</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPlug Power has a long-term opportunity in hydrogen, but speculation has driven its price beyond fundamentals\nAfter a decade spent writing that hydrogen was the future I was excited about the rise of ...\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139107499","content_text":"Plug Power has a long-term opportunity in hydrogen, but speculation has driven its price beyond fundamentals\nAfter a decade spent writing that hydrogen was the future I was excited about the rise of Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) last year. Despite a recent drop in price, PLUG stock is currently up about 535% in the past year.\nPlug Power wants to create a market for hydrogen fuel. After building a business in hydrogen-powered forklifts, the companybought a Tennessee plantthat could convert waste from ammonia production into hydrogen for sale last year.\nAround the time I first wrote about this in October, speculators discovered Plug Power stock. In January, after it signed a warrant deal with Amazon.Com(NASDAQ:AMZN) and a supply contract with Walmart (NYSE:WMT), I again covered Plug Power’s promise.\nSince then, the stock has crashed, falling from $73/share to a recent low below $27. Does this mean the promises were false?\nNo.\nShort Term vs. Long Term\nThe promise remains, but it’s a long-term promise, not a short-term one. Speculators have no concept of the long-term.\nIn October, for instance, our Luke Lango predicted a Plug Power move to $35. Based on fundamentals that would make sense, over time. But speculators have no time. They saw the promise as a reality and bid the stock up, far beyond Luke’s target.\nThat run-up was not justified. It’s going to take years to build hydrogen infrastructure. Right now the market is mainly found in warehouses and utility-grade back-ups from FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL), which aren’t usually on.\nThe promise, however, remains. Last month Plug Power signed a deal to use energy from a hydroelectric plant in Pennsylvania to create hydrogen from water using hydrolysis.Electricity can separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. Plug Power can harvest the hydrogen for fuel. When that fuel is “burned” in a fuel cell, the result is energy and water. I believe the water should be collected for re-use.\nValuing Plug Power\nOver the next 5-10 years, Plug Power is going to sign more deals like this. It’s going to sell more hydrogen forklifts, because gasoline engines shouldn’t be running in an enclosed space. Grandview Research projects the hydrogen market will grow at a 5.7% rate through 2028.A Markets and Markets Report is more optimistic, predicting growth of 9.3%.\nRight now, however, most hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refining. Ammonia production, which Plug Power is taking advantage of in Tennessee, is also common. So-called “green” hydrogen, as with the Pennsylvania hydroelectric project, is still a small piece of the market. \nPlug Power stock is simply out ahead of its skis. The company is still in the investment stage, losing far more money than it takes in to build an asset base.Most of its assets are still in cash. The current valuation of around $17 billion is hard to justify based on $436 million in property, plant, and equipment, or $1.37 billion in cash.\nPlug Power’s decision to bundle research into cost of goods sold, meanwhile, has caused the plaintiff’s bar tocry foulsince the stock began falling. Even optimists like Stephen Calder Byrd of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are calling risk and reward balanced,cutting their ratingson the stock.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe stock market is not the economy.\nJust because a stock is overpriced, and just because its speculative bubble has popped, doesn’t mean the opportunity is gone.\nWhen I first wrote about Plug Power the stock was trading at $17.60/share. If you bought the stock then, you have a fat profit and should take it.\nHydrogen is a long-term trend. It’s an investment, not a trade. If you are going to buy this stock, as an investment, be prepared to hold it for a long time, and be prepared for some dark times. That’s how great industries are built.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/108203672"}