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2021-05-04
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The stock market is ‘inching toward euphoria’, warn analysts at BofA
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The strategists also note that the market hasn’t seen a 10% retreat in stocks in the past 14 months. Pullbacks of that magnitude tend to occur at least once a year.</p><p>All that said, BofA’s team noted the indicators aren’t quite triggering a “sell” signal yet, even though the group’s sell-side indicator hasn’t been this high since May of 2007, which followed a 7% tumble in stocks back then.</p><p>Subramanian and team, however, believe that this time around “tepid” rather than negative returns are likely ahead.</p><p>“While encouraging, the current level is forecasting 12-[month] returns of just 6%, a much weaker outlook compared with an average 12m forecast of 14% since the end of the Global Financial Crisis,” the analysts note, adding this bit of a disclaimer: “However, past performance is not an indication of future results.”</p><p>BofA’s note comes also as Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, BarryBannister also recommends a cautious approach to investing, while also predicting that the S&P 500 is headed for a performance that could see it flat to down 5% to 10% for the next few months.</p><p>Meanwhile, stocks were storming higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.70%,the S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.27%and the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.48%all kicking off trade inMay on a much higher note.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market is ‘inching toward euphoria’, warn analysts at BofA\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-04 09:33 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-inching-toward-euphoria-warn-analysts-at-bofa-11620051606?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fear that the equity-markets are getting a bit too ebullient is starting to emerge in a number of research reports as stocks trade near record levels.The crew at BofA Global Research advocated for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-inching-toward-euphoria-warn-analysts-at-bofa-11620051606?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-inching-toward-euphoria-warn-analysts-at-bofa-11620051606?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144893737","content_text":"Fear that the equity-markets are getting a bit too ebullient is starting to emerge in a number of research reports as stocks trade near record levels.The crew at BofA Global Research advocated for caution in a Monday report titled, “Inching toward euphoria,” amid a rebound from the COVID pandemic that has sent one indicator to a 13-year peak as bullishness grips the U.S. market.“The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks the average recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists, rose for the fourth consecutive month to 59.8% from 59.4%, a 13-year high,” wrote the analysts.BofA researchers led by star analyst Savita Subramanian say that the firm’s sell-indicator, which they describe as a reliable contrarian indicator, is flashing a warning sign if not a sell signal.“Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,” the analysts wrote.The researchers note that there hasn’t been a 5% retreat in the broader market in the past six months even though such pullbacks tend to happen at least three times on average during a calendar year. The strategists also note that the market hasn’t seen a 10% retreat in stocks in the past 14 months. Pullbacks of that magnitude tend to occur at least once a year.All that said, BofA’s team noted the indicators aren’t quite triggering a “sell” signal yet, even though the group’s sell-side indicator hasn’t been this high since May of 2007, which followed a 7% tumble in stocks back then.Subramanian and team, however, believe that this time around “tepid” rather than negative returns are likely ahead.“While encouraging, the current level is forecasting 12-[month] returns of just 6%, a much weaker outlook compared with an average 12m forecast of 14% since the end of the Global Financial Crisis,” the analysts note, adding this bit of a disclaimer: “However, past performance is not an indication of future results.”BofA’s note comes also as Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, BarryBannister also recommends a cautious approach to investing, while also predicting that the S&P 500 is headed for a performance that could see it flat to down 5% to 10% for the next few months.Meanwhile, stocks were storming higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.70%,the S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.27%and the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.48%all kicking off trade inMay on a much higher note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/106138412"}
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