从BRK年报,看巴菲特爱将阿吉特(下)

谈歆灼见
2021-05-07

2001年BRK年报

Working with only 18 associates, Ajit manages one of the world’s largest reinsurance operations measured by assets, and the largest, based upon the size of individual risks assumed.

阿吉特仅与 18名同事合作,管理着全球资产规模最大的再保险业务之一,如果以个人承担的风险规模衡量,也是最大的再保险业务之一。

I have known the details of almost every policy that Ajit has written since he came with us in 1986, and never on even a single occasion have I seen him break any of our three underwriting rules. His extraordinary discipline, of course, does not eliminate losses; it does, however, prevent foolish losses. And that’s the key: Just as is the case in investing, insurers produce outstanding long-term results primarily by avoiding dumb decisions, rather than by making brilliant ones.

自 1986年阿吉特加入我们以来,我几乎知道他所写的每一份保单的细节,而且我从未见过他违反我们的三条承保规则中的任何一条。当然,他非凡的纪律性并不能消除所有损失,但它确实防止了愚蠢的损失。这就是关键所在 :就像投资领域的情况一样,保险公司之所以能产生出色的长期业绩,主要是通过避免做出愚蠢的决定,而不是做出明智的决定。

Since September 11th, Ajit has been particularly busy. Among the policies we have written and retained entirely for our own account are (1) $578 million of property coverage for a South American refinery once a loss there exceeds $1 billion; (2) $1 billion of non-cancelable third-party liability coverage for losses arising from acts of terrorism at several large international airlines; (3) £500 million of property coverage on a large North Sea oil platform, covering losses from terrorism and sabotage, above £600 million that the insured retained or reinsured elsewhere; and (4) significant coverage on the Sears Tower, including losses caused by terrorism, above a $500 million threshold. We have written many other jumbo risks as well, such as protection for the World Cup Soccer Tournament and the 2002 Winter Olympics. In all cases, however, we have attempted to avoid writing groups of policies from which losses might seriously aggregate. We will not, for example, write coverages on a large number of office and apartment towers in a single metropolis without excluding losses from both a nuclear explosion and the fires that would follow it.

自 9月 11日以来,阿吉特特别忙碌。在我们的保单中,我们为自己制定并保留的保单包括 :

(1)一旦南美一家炼油厂的损失超过 10亿美元,为其提供 5.78亿美元的财产保险 ;

(2)若干大型国际航空公司因恐怖主义行为而遭受损失的不可取消的第三方责任保险 10亿美元 ;

(3)一个大型北海石油平台的 5亿英镑财产保险,包括恐怖主义和破坏造成的损失,以及被保险人在其他地方保留或再保险的 6亿英镑以上 ;

(4)对西尔斯大厦的重大保险,包括恐怖主义造成的损失,超过 5亿美元的门槛。我们也写过许多其他重大风险,比如对世界杯足球赛和 2002年冬季奥运会的保护。然而,在所有情况下,我们都试图避免编写损失可能严重累积的保单。例如,我们不会在不排除核爆炸和随后发生的火灾所造成的损失的情况下,对一个大都市的大量写字楼和公寓楼进行承保。

No one can match the speed with which Ajit can offer huge policies. After September 11th, his quickness to respond, always important, has become a major competitive advantage. So, too, has our unsurpassed financial strength.

没有人能比得上阿吉特提出重大决策的速度。 “9·11”事件后,他的快速反应一直很重要,现在已经成为一个主要的竞争优势。我们无与伦比的财政实力也同样如此。

2002年BRK年报

Ajit’s operation has amassed $13.4 billion of float, more than all but a handful of insurers have ever built up. He accomplished this from a standing start in 1986, and even now has a workforce numbering only 20. And, most important, he has produced underwriting profits.

阿吉特的业务已经积累了 134亿美元的流通股,超过了除少数几家保险公司以外的所有保险公司。 1986年,他白手起家实现了这一目标,即使是现在,他的员工也只有 20人。最重要的是,他创造了承保利润。

Ajit’s 2002 underwriting profit of $534 million came after his operation recognized a charge of $428 million attributable to “retroactive” insurance he has written over the years. In this line of business, we assume from another insurer the obligation to pay up to a specified amount for losses they have already incurred – often for events that took place decades earlier – but that are yet to be paid (for example, because a worker hurt in 1980 will receive monthly payments for life). In these arrangements, an insurer pays us a large upfront premium, but one that is less than the losses we expect to pay. We willingly accept this differential because a) our payments are capped, and b) we get to use the money until loss payments are actually made, with these often stretching out over a decade or more. About 80% of the $6.6 billion in asbestos and environmental loss reserves that we carry arises from capped contracts, whose costs consequently can’t skyrocket.

阿吉特 2002年的承保利润为 5.34亿美元,此前他的业务确认了 4.28亿美元的费用,这可归因于他多年来承保的 “追溯性 ”保险。在这项业务中 ,我们假设另一个保险公司有义务支付已经发生的损失 -- 通常为几十年前所发生的事件 -- 但这些损失尚未支付 (例如 ,因为一个工人在 1980年受伤,他将获得终身每月生活费 )。在这些安排中,保险公司预付给我们一大笔保费,但比我们预期支付的损失要少。我们愿意接受这种差异,因为 a )我们的支付是有上限的。b )我们可以使用这些钱,直到实际支付损失,这通常会持续 10年或更久。我们拥有的的66亿美元的石棉和环境损失储备金中,约有 80%来自封顶合同,其成本因此无法飙升。

We want to emphasize, however, that we assume risks in Ajit’s operation that are huge – far larger than those retained by any other insurer in the world. Therefore, a single event could cause a major swing in Ajit’s results in any given quarter or year. That bothers us not at all: As long as we are paid appropriately, we love taking on short-term volatility that others wish to shed. At Berkshire, we would rather earn a lumpy 15% over time than a smooth 12%.

我们要强调的是,我们承担了阿吉特业务的巨大风险 ——远远大于世界上任何其他保险公司所承担的风险。因此,在任何一个季度或一年中,单个事件都可能导致阿吉特的业绩发生重大变化。这根本不会困扰我们 :只要我们的价码合适,我们就愿意承担别人希望摆脱的短期波动。在伯克希尔,我们宁愿长期获得 15%的起伏收益,也不愿平稳地获得 12%的收益。

2003年BRK年报

Ajit writes some very unusual policies. Last year, for example, PepsiCo promoted a drawing that offered participants a chance to win a $1 billion prize. Understandably, Pepsi wished to lay off this risk, and we were the logical party to assume it. So we wrote a $1 billion policy, retaining the risk entirely for our own account. Because the prize, if won, was payable over time, our exposure in present-value terms was $250 million. (I helpfully suggested that any winner be paid $1 a year for a billion years, but that proposal didn’t fly.) The drawing was held on September 14. Ajit and I held our breath, as did the finalist in the contest, and we left happier than he. PepsiCo has renewed for a repeat contest in 2004.

阿吉特写了一些非常不寻常的保险政策。例如,去年,百事公司推出了一项抽奖活动,参与者有机会赢得 10亿美元的奖金。可以理解的是,百事希望避免这种风险,而我们是承担这种风险的理想机构。所以我们签了一份 10亿美元的保单,风险完全由我们自己承担。因为如果赢得奖金,就需要一段时间才能支付,所以按现值计算,我们的风险敞口为 2.5亿美元。 (我非常建议,任何赢家都可以在 10亿年的时间里每年获得 1美元,但这个建议没有得到采纳。 )此次抽奖于 9月 14日举行。我和阿吉特以及决赛选手都屏住了呼吸,我们离开时比他更开心。百事公司在 2004年再次举办了比赛。

2006年BRK年报

At the end of 2006, our float had grown to $50.9 billion, and we have since written a huge retroactive reinsurance contract with Equitas – which I will describe in the next section – that boosts float by another $7 billion.

2006年,阿吉特主导了全球再保险市场上最大的一桩并购案,出资逾70亿美元接管劳合社的再保险Equitas公司整个资产和负债以及相关员工,为伯克希尔的股东创造了数十亿美元的收益。

2008年BRK年报

Ajit came to Berkshire in 1986. Very quickly, I realized that we had acquired an extraordinary talent. So I did the logical thing: I wrote his parents in New Delhi and asked if they had another one like him at home. Of course, I knew the answer before writing. There isn’t anyone like Ajit.

阿吉特 1986年来到伯克希尔,很快,我意识到我们获得了非凡的天赋。于是我做了一件合乎情理的事 :我写信给他在新德里的父母,问他们家里是否还有一个像他一样的孩子。当然,我在写之前就知道答案了,没有人能像阿吉特一样优秀。

2009年BRK年报

Staffed today by only 30 people, Ajit’s operation has set records for transaction size in several areas of insurance. Ajit writes billion-dollar limits – and then keeps every dime of the risk instead of laying it off with other insurers. Three years ago, he took over huge liabilities from Lloyds, allowing it to clean up its relationship with 27,972 participants (“names”) who had written problem-ridden policies that at one point threatened the survival of this 322-year-old institution. The premium for that single contract was $7.1 billion. During 2009, he negotiated a life reinsurance contract that could produce $50 billion of premium for us over the next 50 or so years.

如今,阿吉特的业务只有 30名员工,但在保险的几个领域,交易规模创下了纪录。阿吉特开出数十亿美元的限额 ——然后保留风险的每一分钱,而不是把它交给其他保险公司。三年前,他接管了劳埃德银行的巨额债务,使其得以清理与 27,972名参与者的关系,这些参与者撰写的问题重重的政策一度威胁到这家拥有 322年历史的机构的生存。这一合同的溢价为 71亿美元。在 2009年,他谈妥了一份人寿再保险合同,这份合同可以在未来 50年左右的时间里为我们带来 500亿美元的保费。

Ajit’s business is just the opposite of GEICO’s. At that company, we have millions of small policies that largely renew year after year. Ajit writes relatively few policies, and the mix changes significantly from year to year. Throughout the world, he is known as the man to call when something both very large and unusual needs to be insured.

阿吉特的业务与 GEICO正好相反。在 GEICO,我们有数以百万计的小保单年复一年地更新。阿吉特撰写的保单相对较少,而且政策组合每年都在发生显著变化。当有非常大的事件和不寻常的东西需要投保时,全球人民应该知道打电话给阿吉特。

If Charlie, I and Ajit are ever in a sinking boat – and you can only save one of us – swim to Ajit.

如果查理、我和阿吉特在一艘要沉的船上 ——而你只能救我们中的一个 ——请游到阿吉特那里去救他。

2010年BRK年报

From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $30 billion and significant underwriting profits, a feat that no CEO of any other insurer has come close to matching. By his accomplishments, he has added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire.

从1985年开始,阿吉特创立了一家保险业务,资金达300亿美元,承保利润可观,其他任何一家保险公司的CEO都无法与之匹敌。凭借他的成就,他为伯克希尔增加了数十亿美元的价值。

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2021巴菲特股东大会
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