What's That?
° IIRC, Intrinsic Value (IV) a term either coined or popularized by Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett 's 师父）
° It helps fundamental investors to put a value to a stock & use it as a basis for buy/sell decisions
Why Is It Useful?
° BRK have a huge pile of cash & does share buybacks below IV
° Prior to Jul-18, the benchmark used was 1.2 x NBV per share but this had been shifted higher but not made known (else, they hardly get to do any buyback as investors will grab the shares the moment it drops below IV)
I'm Still Listening ...
° My estimate is 1.3 x NBV / share,
° Look at the 30% Column (Pink) & Buy Back Column (Yellow) for correlation, prior to '20
° Look at 'Buy Back' Column for total purchased & 'Next Q Mkt Price Range' Column for correlation in 2020
What's the IV Now?
° On the same picture, bottom table, I have computed it as NBV = $199.34 for Q121
° Note that when I did the same computation for Q420, my value is slightly higher than what I found in published data ie my figures may be slightly wrong (wait for published figures to check)
What's Your Estimate for Share Buybacks?
° Again, refer to the same figure, $259.14
° As it's just a guesstimate, I'd use a +/- tolerance for my buy / sell decisions
What Affects NBV ?
° Core Businesses eg Insurance, Rails,... + Stock Investments
° Stock Investments can have a significant impact as BRK have a portfolio of ~$300B
Can We Project NBV ?
° Refer to this article for end-Apr portfolio valuations, https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/
° My extracted compilation shows their Top 8 holdings accounts for >80% of Investment Holdings,
° A further comparison using this Top 8 holdings for the last 2 Qs,
° What's interesting to me is there was a +2% increase in valuation
° At the same time, comparing NBV for the same 2 Qs, there was a +2.29% increase
TL:DR Summary
1. My BRK estimated Shares Buyback is ~1.3 * NBV
2. BRK Top 8 Stock Investments can be used to do a quick estimate for NBV changes
Conclusion
° Point 1 is useful to me for short term buy / sell decisions
° Point 2 is useful to me for long term buy / sell decisions
精彩评论