国泰海通：生育政策积极加速乳业供需收敛

智通财经2025-04-22

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近期多地推出生育补贴细则，部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划，有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复，加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。考虑乳制品行业处在供给、需求、库存三重底，存栏去化是本轮周期供需缺口收敛的重要驱动力，内需及生育相关政策催化下景气有望更快改善、将加快这一进程。建议关注：伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、新乳业(002946.SZ)...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2529534202?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-04-22 16:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2529534202","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国泰海通：生育政策积极 加速乳业供需收敛","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近期多地推出生育补贴细则，部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划，有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复，加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。考虑乳制品行业处在供给、需求、库存三重底，存栏去化是本轮周期供需缺口收敛的重要驱动力，内需及生育相关政策催化下景气有望更快改善、将加快这一进程。建议关注：伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、新乳业(002946.SZ)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1282203.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰海通：生育政策积极 加速乳业供需收敛</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国泰海通：生育政策积极 加速乳业供需收敛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-22 16:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1282203.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近期多地推出生育补贴细则，部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划，有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复，加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。考虑乳制品行业处在供给、需求、库存三重底，存栏去化是本轮周期供需缺口收敛的重要驱动力，内需及生育相关政策催化下景气有望更快改善、将加快这一进程。建议关注：伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、新乳业(002946.SZ)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1282203.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"601211","symbol_name":"国泰海通","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1282203.html","article_id":"2529534202","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2529534202","pubTimestamp":1745309421,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近期多地推出生育补贴细则，部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划，有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复，加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。国泰海通主要观点如下：近期生育政策加码3月以来包括呼和浩特、广州、江西、中国澳门等在内的多地已推出生育补贴细则，年度补贴金额多在万元以上，飞鹤、伊利、君乐宝等乳企也先后自发提出生育补贴计划、金额合计44亿元。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601211":"国泰海通","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU1439103000.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China Multi Asset Growth & Income A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","01117":"现代牧业","LU0385154629.USD":"贝莱德营养科学基金A2","LU1102505762.USD":"富达新兴市场焦点 A","IE00B067MR52.USD":"FSSA ASIAN EQUITY PLUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0737861699.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A \" (HKD) ACC","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","BK1597":"三胎概念","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","IE00B031J352.USD":"FSSA GREATER CHINA GROWTH \"I\" (USD) INC","LU1048588211.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Dragon A2 SGD-H","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","06186":"中国飞鹤","LU1224709979.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","BK0184":"上海国资改革","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B97KM107.HKD":"FSSA ASIAN EQUITY PLUS \"I\" (HKD) ACC","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK1500":"做空集合股","02319":"蒙牛乳业","BK0012":"证金概念","BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0276":"资本市场","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","09858":"优然牧业","LU0471298777.SGD":"Blackrock Nutrition A2 SGD-H","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","IE0031814852.USD":"FSSA GREATER CHINA GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0032834883.USD":"FSSA ASIAN EQUITY PLUS \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1553":"奶制品股","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","BK1212":"农产品","LU0259732245.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS DRAGON PEACOCK A"},"translate_title":"Cathay Haitong: Fertility policy actively accelerates the convergence of supply and demand in the dairy industry","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601211":1,"09858":0.9,"02319":0.9,"06186":0.9,"01117":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近期多地推出生育补贴细则，部分乳企自发提出生育补贴计划，有望推动奶粉、液奶等品类景气度修复，加速原奶行业供需缺口收敛过程。考虑乳制品行业处在供给、需求、库存三重底，存栏去化是本轮周期供需缺口收敛的重要驱动力，内需及生育相关政策催化下景气有望更快改善、将加快这一进程。建议关注：伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、新乳业(002946.SZ)、天润乳业(600419.SH)、优然牧业(09858)，受益标的：中国飞鹤(06186)、现代牧业(01117)。国泰海通主要观点如下：近期生育政策加码3月以来包括呼和浩特、广州(部分社区)、江西、中国澳门等在内的多地已推出生育补贴细则，年度补贴金额多在万元以上，飞鹤、伊利、君乐宝等乳企也先后自发提出生育补贴计划、金额合计44亿元。当前出口形势下内需重要性提升，生育和消费是促内需重要抓手，4月15日求是杂志《打开中国消费新天地》再次强调“加大生育养育保障力度”，随着消费市场回暖及生育政策持续落地，奶粉、液奶等品类景气度有望加速复苏。乳制品行业持续去产能2024年末我国奶牛存栏约620万头，25Q1奶牛存栏持续去化，截至3月末预计存栏数回落至610+万头，当前原奶供应仍过剩，体现为奶价继续回落。近期国际贸易影响下豆粕、玉米、牛肉价格微涨，推动饲料成本上涨以及牧场淘汰牛价格上涨，行业有望延续去产能节奏。同时1-2月大包粉进口规模同比降低，国内自产和进口原奶量预计将继续减少。至暗已过，期待反转2023年下半年起乳品需求持续走弱，行业最悲观的时点(24Q2)已过。据测算，若2025年末奶牛存栏去化至600万头及以下，考虑低基数下需求大概率企稳、有可能更强，年内有望达到原奶供需平衡。结合供给和需求节奏(供给侧8-9月收青贮集中考验牧场现金流，需求侧更多生育政策落地叠加9-10月中秋国庆释放需求)，预计生鲜乳均衡点可能出现在25Q3，届时奶价有望企稳，推动行业格局改善；若生育及内需政策表现更加积极，则供需平衡时间有望提前。从历史经验来看龙头在奶价上行期通常表现为毛销差改善，同时减少部分开支及损失，带来盈利修复和份额提升。风险提示奶牛存栏去化不及预期导致奶价持续下跌、乳制品动销持续下滑、食品安全风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2529534202","isCrawlerRequest":true}

国泰海通：生育政策积极 加速乳业供需收敛

精彩评论

国泰海通：生育政策积极加速乳业供需收敛