高盛解读美元大跌逻辑：类似“英国脱欧”，外资抛售美股，而非美债

华尔街见闻2025-04-20

过去十年，美国优异的资产回报率吸引了全球资本滚滚流入，欧洲、日本、亚洲主权基金，甚至是中东产油国的钱，都在不断加码美股、美债。随着资金持续流入，美元也随之水涨船高，如今这个“例外伦”的破灭了。高盛对冲基金业务负责人Tony Pasquariello近日发布报告指出，目前美元高估了20%，这种高估正是美国例外主义的结果。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱，而这一次是美国与世界的对抗，因此更类似“英国...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745537><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去十年，美国优异的资产回报率吸引了全球资本滚滚流入，欧洲、日本、亚洲主权基金，甚至是中东产油国的钱，都在不断加码美股、美债。随着资金持续流入，美元也随之水涨船高，如今这个“例外伦”的破灭了。\n高盛对冲基金业务负责人Tony Pasquariello近日发布报告指出，目前美元高估了20%，这种高估正是美国例外主义的结果。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱，而这一次是美国与世界的对抗，因此更类似“英国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745537\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0251131958.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) 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Pasquariello近日发布报告指出，目前美元高估了20%，这种高估正是美国例外主义的结果。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱，而这一次是美国与世界的对抗，因此更类似“英国脱欧”而不是第一次贸易战。\n此外，高盛该指出， 到目前为止，主要是欧元区投资者抛售美国股票， 外投并未大规模净抛售美国国债。\n关税击中了美元的核心逻辑\n高盛指出了美元可能大幅走弱的三大逻辑：\n\n1、估值泡沫：当前美元估值偏离基本面，高估幅度达20%。\n2、利润与消费受创：特朗普关税带来的结果，不只是价格上涨，更深层的是它在伤害美国公司利润和美国家庭的消费能力，而这两样东西正是“美国例外论”的发动机。换句话说，关税正在动摇强势美元赖以存在的核心支柱。\n3、结构性资本外流：这次不像是2018年的那次关税摩擦，更像是“美国版的英国脱欧”。2018年是美国对个别国家，现在是美国对抗全世界，连盟友都不放过，欧盟、日本、加拿大、韩国一个个中枪。这不是战术摩擦，而是结构性脱钩。\n\n高盛在报告中还提到了一个关键风险。目前全球有2.2万亿美元的美元相关资产没有外汇对冲，一旦投资者决定撤退，影响会很大。例如2017年1月到2018年1月底，部分资金从美元资产流出，转而投向欧元区等其他地区的资产，结果欧元兑美元涨幅高达20%，直接拉开了利差和汇率之间的传统联动。\n外资抛售美股，而非美债\n高盛认为，本轮调整的起点，是美国资产在全球投资组合中所占的比例处于历史最高点。\n不过，高盛强调，目前的外资动作并非剧烈砸盘式撤离美元资产，而是边际需求的转变所推动。例如，虽然欧元区投资者开始抛售美股，但“其他国家和地区”仍在持续买入美国资产。同时，投资者对美债的态度更为谨慎，并未全面抛售美债。虽然他们减持了部分长久期国债，但这部分额资金大多转向短期美债，避险效应仍在起作用。\n另外，由于全球仍缺乏更具吸引力的替代资产，一些资金不会直接卖出美资资产，而是通过对冲外汇风险的方式进行调整，也就是卖出美元，但保留底层资产。高盛强调，这些美元资产的超配仓位是多年积累的结果，调整也需要时间。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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