经济担忧下必选消费成“扛把子”高盛力挺菲利普莫里斯(PM.US)怪兽饮料(MNST.US)亿滋(MDLZ.US)

智通财经2025-04-18

智通财经APP获悉，高盛近日发布消费板块报告，剖析全球经济形势以明确当前环境下必需消费品行业赢家与输家，重申买入菲利普莫里斯国际公司(PM.US)、怪兽饮料公司(MNST.US)、亿滋国际公司(MDLZ.US)股票。2025年开局波动，市场对美国经济和消费者支出的担忧日益加剧。关税和通胀前景的不确定性打击了消费者信心和预期。扫描数据和消费品包装(CPG)行业管理层的评论显示，今年以来消费趋势有所...

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(MDLZ.US)","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MDLZ":1,"MNST":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛近日发布消费板块报告，剖析全球经济形势以明确当前环境下必需消费品行业赢家与输家，重申买入菲利普莫里斯国际公司(PM.US)、怪兽饮料公司(MNST.US)、亿滋国际公司(MDLZ.US)股票。2025年开局波动，市场对美国经济和消费者支出的担忧日益加剧。关税和通胀前景的不确定性打击了消费者信心和预期。扫描数据和消费品包装(CPG)行业管理层的评论显示，今年以来消费趋势有所放缓。此外，就业增长放缓和关税可能导致的潜在通胀上升，促使该行的经济学家下调了家庭收入预期。此前，该行经济学家曾预测，如果特朗普总统4月提出的“对等”关税措施生效，美国经济将陷入衰退，不过总统现已将该措施暂停实施90天。尽管如此，该行的经济学家预计2025年第四季度同比年化GDP增长率为0.5%，核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率峰值为3.5%，且今年经济衰退的概率为45%。综合来看，美国宏观经济前景依然黯淡。因此，该行以2008-2009年的经济衰退(全球金融危机，GFC)为案例进行研究，以了解其中的动态机制，并判断这是否有助于该行确定在经济下滑时哪些公司更具优势。基于此，该行认为菲利普莫里斯国际公司、怪兽饮料公司和亿滋国际公司凭借其强劲的销售增长前景，在经济衰退时有望维持较高估值。因此，重申对这三只股票的买入评级：总体而言，由于必需消费品行业防御性更强，该行预计其表现将优于标准普尔500指数，但鉴于饮料和家庭及个人护理(HPC)行业的可选性相对较高(与食品和烟草行业相比)，预计它们的表现将落后于整个必需消费品板块。值得注意的是，在全球金融危机期间，该行也看到了类似的细分行业表现差异。就必需消费品行业的相对估值而言，该行发现家庭及个人护理行业的估值偏离最为明显，而饮料行业的估值相对更合理，食品和烟草行业则颇具吸引力。具体到公司层面，尽管家庭及个人护理行业和部分食品公司(如好时公司)在经济衰退时有风险，但怪兽饮料公司、菲利普莫里斯国际公司和亿滋国际公司因其强劲且加速的增长前景，目前的估值溢价高于全球金融危机时期。从历史数据来看，必需消费品的消费趋势与GDP增长基本同步。这意味着在经济下滑时，食品、饮料和家庭及个人护理产品的消费可能会受到压力，具体表现为购买周期延长，消费者可能会转而选择更便宜的替代品(如自有品牌产品)。不过，烟草/尼古丁类产品的消费在经济困难时期通常会有所增加。在2008-2009年经济衰退期间，自有品牌产品的市场份额有所上升，在亿滋国际公司、百事公司(PEP.US)的零食业务、卡夫亨氏公司(KHC.US)以及高乐氏公司(CLX.US)的相关品类中份额增长最为显著。另一方面，好时公司(HSY.US)、高露洁(CL.US)和Church&Dwight(CHD.US)的相关品类受到的影响最小。低收入消费者在经济衰退时更有可能转而购买自有品牌产品。在该行覆盖的公司中，除烟草公司外(烟草公司受自有品牌威胁较小，但由于香烟价格差距较大，确实存在消费者转向低价香烟的风险)，Keurig 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