高盛预警：标普500逼近5300目标位，剧烈震荡将成市场新常态

智通财经2025-04-14

智通财经APP获悉，高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯廷表示，虽然标普500指数正逼近该行设定的三个月目标位5300点，但近期下行风险正在积聚。在4月11日发布的客户报告中，他将不断上升的经济衰退风险、波动率攀升和市场流动性恶化列为当前市场的三大关键挑战。科斯廷警告称："如果经济或政策前景改善，当前轻仓的投资者配置可能为市场提供进一步上涨空间，但目前市场尚未充分消化经济衰退风险抬升的影响。"他指出，...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1277856.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯廷表示，虽然标普500指数正逼近该行设定的三个月目标位5300点，但近期下行风险正在积聚。在4月11日发布的客户报告中，他将不断上升的经济衰退风险、波动率攀升和市场流动性恶化列为当前市场的三大关键挑战。科斯廷警告称：\"如果经济或政策前景改善，当前轻仓的投资者配置可能为市场提供进一步上涨空间，但目前市场尚未充分消化经济衰退风险抬升的影响。\"他指出，...</p>\n\n<a 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market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":1,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"VOO":1,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫·科斯廷表示，虽然标普500指数正逼近该行设定的三个月目标位5300点，但近期下行风险正在积聚。在4月11日发布的客户报告中，他将不断上升的经济衰退风险、波动率攀升和市场流动性恶化列为当前市场的三大关键挑战。科斯廷警告称：\"如果经济或政策前景改善，当前轻仓的投资者配置可能为市场提供进一步上涨空间，但目前市场尚未充分消化经济衰退风险抬升的影响。\"他指出，标普500指数的实际波动率已飙升至新冠疫情危机期间的水平，衡量市场恐慌情绪的VIX指数本周早些时候一度蹿升至52点。过去两周，标普500指数经历了剧烈震荡：上周五暴跌6%，创下数十年来最差单日表现之一;但在特朗普总统宣布暂停新增关税90天后，该指数又强势反弹10%，创1950年以来第三大单日涨幅。流动性持续恶化科斯廷特别强调，股市流动性恶化已与波动性形成负反馈循环。\"流动性突然枯竭通常会导致更剧烈的价格波动。\"他表示。高盛的标普500流动性追踪指标(通过监测买卖价差、期货市场深度和交易量价格影响)显示，过去一个月流动性急剧萎缩，不过仍高于疫情期间的低点。一个明显的市场压力信号出现在4月7日，当日标普500成分股中位数股票的买卖价差扩大至22个基点，创2020年3月以来新高。同期期货市场深度也跌至过去二十年来的3%分位，突显大额交易对价格影响的显著放大。高/低流动性股票表现差异收窄令人意外的是，尽管市场环境恶化，高流动性和低流动性股票之间的相对表现却异常稳定。年初至今，高盛高流动性股票组合跑赢低流动性组合500个基点，但近期抛售中这一差距趋于平缓。通常情况下，高流动性股票在抛售中表现不佳，因为更容易被抛售。但科斯廷指出，\"优质\"属性(如更稳健的资产负债表和更稳定的盈利)支撑了这类股票的表现。高盛近期调整了其流动性组合，该组合由罗素1000指数中流动性比率最高和最低的50只等权重股票构成。高流动性股票通常具有更窄的买卖价差和更高的交易量，而低流动性股票往往交投清淡、波动剧烈。科斯廷总结道，虽然标普500指数仍接近目标位，但在波动性极端化、政策不确定性和流动性脆弱的当下，投资者需保持谨慎。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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