蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清经营利润率显著改善

招商证券2025-04-13

公司24 年受需求影响整体收入承压，但受益于奶价下行及公司费用高效投放，经营利润率提升幅度超预期，公司对商誉及联营亏损集中进行减值计提，报表包袱理清。25 年看，公司战略方向上继续优化供应链降本增效，并加大渠道下沉，产品上强化高端策略和精准营销，全年计划收入恢复小幅增长，经营利润率保持平稳。我们认为乳品行业在经历24 年需求压力下，市场竞争已有所趋缓，随着上游供给侧持续出清，以及政策带动下需求提振...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2527693679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-04-13 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2527693679","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清 经营利润率显著改善","media":"招商证券","content":"<div>\n<p>公司24 年受需求影响整体收入承压，但受益于奶价下行及公司费用高效投放，经营利润率提升幅度超预期，公司对商誉及联营亏损集中进行减值计提，报表包袱理清。25 年看，公司战略方向上继续优化供应链降本增效，并加大渠道下沉，产品上强化高端策略和精准营销，全年计划收入恢复小幅增长，经营利润率保持平稳。我们认为乳品行业在经历24 年需求压力下，市场竞争已有所趋缓，随着上游供给侧持续出清，以及政策带动下需求提振...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250413203121a4577f94&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清 经营利润率显著改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清 经营利润率显著改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-13 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250413203121a4577f94&s=b><strong>招商证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>公司24 年受需求影响整体收入承压，但受益于奶价下行及公司费用高效投放，经营利润率提升幅度超预期，公司对商誉及联营亏损集中进行减值计提，报表包袱理清。25 年看，公司战略方向上继续优化供应链降本增效，并加大渠道下沉，产品上强化高端策略和精准营销，全年计划收入恢复小幅增长，经营利润率保持平稳。我们认为乳品行业在经历24 年需求压力下，市场竞争已有所趋缓，随着上游供给侧持续出清，以及政策带动下需求提振...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250413203121a4577f94&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1102505929.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250413203121a4577f94&s=b","article_id":"2527693679","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250413203121a4577f94&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2527693679","pubTimestamp":1744473600,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"公司经营利润72.6 亿元，经营利润率同比提升1.9 个百分点至8.2%。奶价下行毛利率改善，OPM 提升超预期。年内，业务经营费用总额下降8.7%至人民币278.337 亿元。受益于毛利率提升，经营利润为人民币72.567 亿元，同比上升17.6%；经营利润率为8.2%，同比提升1.9pct。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1102505929.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE0008369823.USD":"FSSA HONG KONG GROWTH \"I\" ACC","LU0471298777.SGD":"Blackrock Nutrition A2 SGD-H","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","IE0032834883.USD":"FSSA ASIAN EQUITY PLUS \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2045819591.USD":"Natixis WCM Global Emerging Markets Equity R/A USD","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","IE00B0169L03.USD":"FSSA ASIA FOCUS FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1553":"奶制品股","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0259732245.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0315179316.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1439103000.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China Multi Asset Growth & Income A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","02319":"蒙牛乳业","LU0385154629.USD":"贝莱德营养科学基金A2","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU1102505762.USD":"富达新兴市场焦点 A","IE00B29SXG58.USD":"FSSA CHINA FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0737861699.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A \" (HKD) ACC","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU0672654166.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","BK1597":"三胎概念","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0543330483.HKD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","IE00B031HY20.USD":"FSSA CHINA GROWTH \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"Mengniu Dairy (2319. HK): Sorting out reporting burdens and operating profit margins improve significantly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02319":1},"content_text":"公司24 年受需求影响整体收入承压，但受益于奶价下行及公司费用高效投放，经营利润率提升幅度超预期，公司对商誉及联营亏损集中进行减值计提，报表包袱理清。25 年看，公司战略方向上继续优化供应链降本增效，并加大渠道下沉，产品上强化高端策略和精准营销，全年计划收入恢复小幅增长，经营利润率保持平稳。我们认为乳品行业在经历24 年需求压力下，市场竞争已有所趋缓，随着上游供给侧持续出清，以及政策带动下需求提振，整体供需有望在25 年显著改善，带动企业走出低谷。我们预测25-26 年EPS 为人民币1.29、1.39 元，对应25 年14 倍PE，维持“强烈推荐”评级。事件：公司披露2024 年业绩公告，2024 年实现收入886.7 亿元，同比下降10.1%，归母净利润1.05 亿元，同比下降97.8%，大幅下降主要在于公司对于附属公司贝拉米及现代牧业集中进行商誉减值，剔除贝拉米商誉减值及联营亏损影响，归母净利润调整后为44.35 亿元，同比-7.8%。公司经营利润72.6 亿元，经营利润率同比提升1.9 个百分点至8.2%。其中H2 实现收入440.04 亿元，同比减少7.4%，归母净利润-23.4 亿元，同比减少230.9%，经营利润41.4 亿元，同比增长0.4%，由于乳制品行业供需不平衡，消费需求不及预期。公司计划每股派发股息0.509 元，合计派发现金股利19.94 亿元，派息比率为45%。行业需求承压，液态奶压力仍存。24 年公司液态奶/冰淇淋/奶粉/奶酪/其他产品分别实现收入730.7/51.8/33.2/43.2/27.9 亿元， 分别同比-11.0%/-14.1%/-12.7%/-0.9%/+18.0%，其中24H2 液态奶/冰淇淋/奶粉/奶酪/其他产品收入分别为368/18/17/22/15 亿元， 分别同比-8.97%/+5.03%/-11.65%/+4.96%/+11.67%，液奶受需求制约压力仍存。2024年乳制品行业因原奶供给过剩及需求不及预期，供需矛盾凸显，整体市场短期内压力仍存。婴配粉行业在人口出生率下滑等因素影响下持续承压，但随市场逐步企稳，头部企业市场份额占比提升。宏观消费信心不足、市场竞争激烈、行业渠道库存偏高等因素为冰淇淋行业带来挑战。但消费者对冰淇淋健康属性关注度提升、需求多元化，线上渠道快速发展，户外旅游等新消费场景，亦为冰淇淋品类发展注入新势能。2024 年，妙可蓝多紧密围绕‘产品创新、品牌引领、渠道精耕、管理增效’四大核心战略，奶酪市场占有率持续稳居行业第一 ，领先优势持续扩大，盈利能力显著提升。奶价下行毛利率改善，OPM 提升超预期。24 年公司实现毛利率39.6%，同比提升2.4pcts（H2+3.1pcts），主要得益于奶价下降带来的成本红利。因年内销售收入下降，及下半年强化费用投放效率，销售及经销费用减少8.3%至人民币230.926 亿元，其中产品和品牌宣传及行销费用减少5.4%至人民币71.148 亿元。由于年内集团的提质增效举措，行政费用下降10.8%至人民币42.290 亿元，与23 年基本持平。其他费用中的教育附加费、城市维护建设税及其他税项为人民币5.121 亿元，同比下降4.2%。年内，业务经营费用总额下降8.7%至人民币278.337 亿元。受益于毛利率提升，经营利润为人民币72.567 亿元，同比上升17.6%；经营利润率为8.2%，同比提升1.9pct。2025年公司预计收入有望恢复至小幅增长水平，OPM 相对稳定，但是未来3 年OPM 将保持年均提升30~50bp 的提升空间。投资建议：报表包袱理清，经营利润率显著改善，维持“强烈推荐”评级。公司24年受需求影响整体收入承压，但受益于奶价下行及公司费用高效投放，经营利润率提升幅度超预期，公司对商誉及联营亏损集中进行减值计提，报表包袱理清。25 年看，公司战略方向上继续优化供应链降本增效，并加大渠道下沉，产品上强化高端策略和精准营销，全年计划收入恢复小幅增长，经营利润率保持平稳。我们认为乳品行业在经历24 年需求压力下，市场竞争已有所趋缓，随着上游供给侧持续出清，以及政策带动下需求提振，整体供需有望在25 年显著改善，带动企业走出低谷。我们预测25-26 年EPS 为人民币1.29、1.39 元，对应25 年14 倍PE，维持“强烈推荐”评级。风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、原材料成本上涨、行业竞争加剧、短期管理层变动影响等","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2527693679","isCrawlerRequest":true}

蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清 经营利润率显著改善

精彩评论

蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：报表包袱理清经营利润率显著改善