贝莱德、富达、施罗德......资管巨头投资重心转向防御型资产

券商中国2025-04-16

在贸易摩擦升温、政策不确定性加剧的背景下，国际资管机构正将投资目光转向防御型资产。随着市场波动性显著上升，全球主要资产管理机构普遍下调风险偏好，并加快调整战术配置，强化资产组合的稳定性与抗压能力。近期，贝莱德、富达、施罗德等多家国际资管巨头纷纷表示，当前阶段的市场波动主要受关税政策频繁变动影响，短期内风险资产可能持续承压。在此背景下，防御性配置的重要性愈加凸显。在行业选择方面，银行、公用事业、医疗...

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assets","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":1},"content_text":"在贸易摩擦升温、政策不确定性加剧的背景下，国际资管机构正将投资目光转向防御型资产。随着市场波动性显著上升，全球主要资产管理机构普遍下调风险偏好，并加快调整战术配置，强化资产组合的稳定性与抗压能力。近期，贝莱德、富达、施罗德等多家国际资管巨头纷纷表示，当前阶段的市场波动主要受关税政策频繁变动影响，短期内风险资产可能持续承压。在此背景下，防御性配置的重要性愈加凸显。在行业选择方面，银行、公用事业、医疗等受冲击相对较小的板块获重点关注。此外，长期美债配置空间受限，黄金等具有多元化价值的资产正在重新获得市场青睐。展望全球其他市场，欧洲的财政与货币政策相对宽松，也有望在全球不确定性中提供局部韧性。全球机构普遍下调风险偏好在全球贸易局势紧张的背景下，市场情绪持续承压，多家国际资产管理机构开始下调风险偏好，并重新评估资产配置策略。贝莱德智库指出，贸易局势紧张引发风险资产下跌，市场波动或将持续一段时间。基于这一判断，其将战术配置周期缩短至三个月，并下调风险偏好，对美股的立场调整为“中性”，并看好美国短期国债。贝莱德认为，尽管人工智能等颠覆性趋势的发展仍支撑美股中长期前景，但在当前阶段，风险资产短期内仍可能承压，直至不确定性开始消退。富达国际则认为，当前市场仍处于快速变化之中。特朗普推出的新一轮关税政策，以及其他经济体的反制措施正在短期主导市场情绪。富达预计，在未来几周内，市场将逐步转向对经济增长放缓的定价，甚至可能开始为潜在衰退预做好准备。与此同时，贝莱德强调，美国新一轮关税政策及其他国家和地区的应对措施，进一步强化了其对利率与长期国债收益率走势的判断，即利率和长债收益率将持续高于疫情前的水平。虽然市场普遍预期美联储将在年内降息4至5次、每次25个基点，但贝莱德对此持谨慎态度，认为在关税新政尚未完全显现效应之前，美国的核心通胀已显著高于美联储2%的目标水平。投资重心转向防御型板块在避险情绪升温的当下，资管机构正在市场震荡中寻找结构性配置机会，并强调优质标的和防御性行业的重要性。贝莱德智库表示，风险资产的下跌也为选股带来了机会，美国政策变化正在刺激全球财政支出。例如，德国1万亿欧元的国防与基础设施投资计划，便为相关领域带来了投资机会。贝莱德认为，尽管欧洲整体经济增长与企业盈利前景尚不具备持续支撑股市表现的条件，但如果欧盟能如疫情时期那样寻求联合发债，将有望拓展更广泛的宏观投资空间。富达国际从时间维度出发，进一步分析市场波动的节奏与节点评估。在短期，市场波动将由难以预测的关税消息驱动，具有很强的技术性。债券市场仍是关键痛点，不过，收益率若升高过快，往往会引发市场行动，有助于债券在投资组合中发挥更积极的作用。富达预计，未来90天内，特朗普可能面临维持立场的挑战，这种情形预计会持续造成市场波动。在中期视角下，富达认为，企业与消费者信心或将受到影响，进而影响调查数据和硬性经济数据，给经济增长前景和风险资产带来额外风险。富达同时提醒，地缘政治紧张和其他政策不确定性因素也会为市场带来变量。施罗德投资则从行业配置的角度出发，强调投资者应关注那些注重长期规划、供应链具有韧性、具备良好客户关系的优质公司，这些公司有望更好地应对关税及竞争局势的变化。施罗德还建议，对于那些受贸易政策影响较大的行业，应聚焦具备定价能力、订单积压周期长、本土市场占有率高的公司。而对受冲击较小的银行、医疗、公用事业等领域，则可作为波动时期的“避风港”。此外，防御型行业凭借相对稳定的盈利能力，也更有望在经济不确定性上升阶段依旧保持韧性。宏观政策仍是关键变量面对复杂的贸易环境与不断变化的政策预期，多家机构强调，宏观政策走向及全球协同反应将成为左右市场走势的关键变量。贝莱德智库表示，受美国财政赤字持续扩大及核心通胀高企的影响，他们将维持对长期美债的低配观点。在当前环境中，贝莱德认为，黄金具备更强的多元化投资价值，有望在资产配置中发挥更积极的作用。施罗德投资同样警示宏观政策的传导路径及其对市场情绪的放大效应。他们认为，当前局势瞬息万变，未来几天至几周内或将出现新一轮发展。同时，施罗德也提醒投资者关注各国金融管理部门的潜在政策响应，尤其是降息的可能性，这些都可能导致市场波动在短期内持续存在。在更宏观的层面上，施罗德表示，关税的直接影响预计将使企业成本和整体通胀增加、经济活动和增长下降以及企业盈利能力降低，损害消费者和企业信心，进而影响美国和全球经济。此外，施罗德还提到，眼下美国消费者已开始显现疲态，尤其是低收入群体，消费品牌企业的获利能力亦会受到拖累。尽管各国针对美方关税的反制措施尚不明朗，但施罗德认为，全球其他地区相对较高的储蓄率，以及较宽松的财政和货币政策，或将在一定程度上为经济提供韧性，尤其是欧洲市场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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