英伟达GTC前瞻：三大关注点

华泰睿思2025-03-11

一是B300和GB300芯片发布，预计基于台积电4NP工艺，算力提升约50%；二是CPO交换机技术升级，硅光子技术推动，2025年下半年将量产Quantum 3400和Spectrum 5，交换容量大幅提升；三是NVL288机架级互连架构升级，或与Rubin同步推出，采用UBB+OAM结构解决发热问题。核心观点英伟达将于3/17-3/21举办GTC大会，CEO黄仁勋将于北京时间3/19凌晨1:00...

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Day，探索前沿量子计算技术。我们认为本次大会应核心关注：1）加速计算的发展趋势以及B300和GB300发布情况；2）CPO交换机技术升级；3）NVL288机架与Rubin的进展更新。考虑到Rubin和Vera有望同步发布，我们认为此次GTC或仅提供后续芯片路线图。核心关注#1：Blackwell架构更新，B300计算性能或提高50%继2024 GTC发布B200和GB200后，业界预测英伟达本次将推出B300和GB300新品。Semi Analysis预测B300基于台积电4NP工艺，算力相较于B200提升约50%。相比GB200和B200 TDP分别为1.2kW和1kW，部分性能提升来自额外200W功耗，其中GB300和B300 HGX的TDP分别提高至1.4kW和1.2kW，GB300服务器液冷需求将更紧迫。此外，Toms Hardware预测B300或搭载12-Hi HBM3E，提供最高288GB内存和8TB/s带宽。云厂商推进GB300，既因其FLOPS和内存提升，也因其更高灵活性。不同于B200和GB200，英伟达或不再销售完整B300服务器机箱，而是仅提供SXM Puck模块、Grace CPU和Axiado HMC等核心组件。此外，我们预计Rubin将全面采用3nm工艺，但本次或将只披露最新进展，鉴于我们认为新CPU架构Vera和新GPU架构Rubin或将一同发布。核心关注#2：AI集群扩展加速或推动英伟达CPO交换机技术升级AI集群的快速发展使规模化扩展（Scale-Out）在提升数据传输效率和突破带宽瓶颈方面至关重要。本次GTC还应重点关注硅光子（Silicon Photonics）技术推动的共封装光学（Co-packaged Optics，CPO）解决方案。英伟达计划2025年7/12月分别量产Quantum 3400和Spectrum 5 CPO交换机。据Semi Vision预测，英伟达新一代CPO交换机或采用Chiplet设计，提升交换容量与光学引擎性能。其中Spectrum 5交换容量达204.8T（4颗51.2T交换芯片，单芯片16颗3.2T光学引擎）；Spectrum 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