赛富时：AGENTFORCE贡献成规模收入仍需时间

中金公司2025-03-06

2025 财年第四季度营收略低于市场预期Salesforce 发布了2025 财年第四季度的业绩：本季度公司收入同增7.6%至99.9 亿美元，通用口径经营利润和净利润分别为18.2 亿美元和17.1 亿美元，对应摊薄后EPS 为1.75 美元；非通用口径经营利润和净利润分别为33 亿美元和27.1 亿美元，对应摊薄后EPS 为2.78 美元。因公司原生业务收入端增长乏力，本季度营收略低于市场预期...

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净利润高于市场预期。发展趋势产品侧形成“三位一体”架构，利润侧稳中有升。公司持续聚焦用户体验提升，目前已形成涵盖Customer 360 apps、Data Cloud 和Agentforce 的“三位一体”架构，驱动Data Cloud 和Agentforce 形成协同效应。2025财年公司AI 和Data Cloud 实现了9 亿美元的年度经常性收入（ARR），同比增长120%，财富100 强中AI 和Data Cloud 客户覆盖率高达约50%。此外，在利润方面，本季度公司GAAP 口径下经营利润率和净利润率分别为18%和17%，对应GAAP 经营利润和净利润分别为18.2 亿美元和17.1亿美元；non-GAAP 口径下经营利润率和净利润率分别为33%和27%，对应non-GAAP 经营利润和净利润分别为33 亿美元和27.1 亿美元，利润端保持稳中有升趋势。此外，公司自由现金流情况持续向好，本季度同比增长17%至38.2 亿美元。Agentforce 收入兑现仍需时间。市场关注度较高的Agentforce 方面，公司披露了部分数据：自2024 年10 月以来，Agentforce 交易数量已达到5,000 笔，其中包括3,000 笔以上付费交易，体现出下游客户对于AI Agent 需求，公司也表示将继续增加相关销售人员数量。但我们认为Agentforce 商业化尚处于初期阶段，我们预计25 年下半年Agentforce 有望贡献更多收入。此外，在指引方面，公司预计1QFY26 总营收约为97.1-97.6 亿美元，对应同比增速约为6-7%，低于此前市场预期的8-9%的营收同比增速。GAAP 摊薄后EPS 约为1.49-1.51 美元，Non-GAAP 摊薄后EPS 约为2.53-2.55 美元。针对2026 财年，公司预计总营收为405-409 亿美元，对应同比增速约7-8%，略低于此前市场预期9%以上的营收同比增速；GAAP 营业利润率为21.6%，non-GAAP营业利润率为34%；GAAP 摊薄后EPS 约为6.95-7.03 美元，non-GAAP 摊薄后EPS 约为11.09-11.17 美元；经营现金流同比增长约10-11%。盈利预测与估值我们维持公司2026 财年收入/Non-GAAP 净利润基本不变，引入2027 财年收入/Non-GAAP 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