光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张关注云厂商投资机会

智通财经03-08

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，25年是海外AI应用商业化落地的重要窗口期，AI数据中心基建的需求仍有望持续，科技巨头高额资本开支带来的利润压力尚且可控。国内市场上看，由DeepSeek开启的国内AI应用周期将带动AI和非AI云服务需求抬升，叠加传统云需求回暖、国内云资产价值重估，有望带来业绩和估值共振的行情。海外标的：关注Meta(META.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、微软(...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2517177334?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-03-08 17:22","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2517177334","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张 关注云厂商投资机会","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，25年是海外AI应用商业化落地的重要窗口期，AI数据中心基建的需求仍有望持续，科技巨头高额资本开支带来的利润压力尚且可控。国内市场上看，由DeepSeek开启的国内AI应用周期将带动AI和非AI云服务需求抬升，叠加传统云需求回暖、国内云资产价值重估，有望带来业绩和估值共振的行情。海外标的：关注Meta(META.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、微软(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1259424.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张 关注云厂商投资机会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张 关注云厂商投资机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-08 17:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1259424.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，25年是海外AI应用商业化落地的重要窗口期，AI数据中心基建的需求仍有望持续，科技巨头高额资本开支带来的利润压力尚且可控。国内市场上看，由DeepSeek开启的国内AI应用周期将带动AI和非AI云服务需求抬升，叠加传统云需求回暖、国内云资产价值重估，有望带来业绩和估值共振的行情。海外标的：关注Meta(META.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、微软(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1259424.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1734074674.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1259424.html","article_id":"2517177334","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2517177334","pubTimestamp":1741425729,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，25年是海外AI应用商业化落地的重要窗口期，AI数据中心基建的需求仍有望持续，科技巨头高额资本开支带来的利润压力尚且可控。美股科技巨头AI投资周期各异，25年资本开支将继续扩张。传统云需求回暖叠加AI业务带来的增量，有望驱动2025年国内云厂商营收超预期加速增长，持续提振国内AIDC投资情绪。本轮国内AIDC行情可类比2023年美股云厂商行情。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","80992":"联想集团-R","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","601788":"光大证券","LU1734074674.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0261947096.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  SUSTAINABLE ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0107464264.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL INNOVATION EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0823397103.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1044874839.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"AGH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1568876251.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","00700":"腾讯控股","IE0003851619.USD":"BNY MELLON ASIAN EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0831103253.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Pacific Income A (mth) SGD","HBBD.SI":"Alibaba HK SDR 5to1","06178":"光大证券","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1044875133.USD":"天利亚洲反向股票 AU Acc","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","00992":"联想集团","LU0192582467.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ASIAN EQUITY YIELD \"A\" (USD) INC MF","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","03896":"金山云","00728":"中国电信","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LNVGY":"联想集团ADR","LU0293314216.USD":"ALLIANZ GEM EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","HTCD.SI":"Tencent HK SDR 10to1","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","03888":"金山软件"},"translate_title":"Everbright Securities: AIDC capital expenditures at home and abroad will continue to expand, pay attention to investment opportunities from cloud vendors","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":0.6,"80992":0.6,"89988":0.6,"601788":0.6,"00700":0.6,"00728":0.6,"00992":0.6,"03888":0.6,"03896":0.6,"06178":0.6,"09988":0.6,"BABA":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"LNVGY":0.6,"TCEHY":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，25年是海外AI应用商业化落地的重要窗口期，AI数据中心基建的需求仍有望持续，科技巨头高额资本开支带来的利润压力尚且可控。国内市场上看，由DeepSeek开启的国内AI应用周期将带动AI和非AI云服务需求抬升，叠加传统云需求回暖、国内云资产价值重估，有望带来业绩和估值共振的行情。海外标的：关注Meta(META.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)、Oracle(ORCL.US)。国内标的：推荐阿里巴巴-W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)、金山云(03896)、金山软件(03888)、联想集团(00992)；关注中国电信(00728)、中国联通(00762)、万国数据(09698)、世纪互联(VNET.US)、新意网集团(01686)。光大证券主要观点如下：23年以来美股科技巨头的投资逻辑和AI叙事出现多次变化。23年涨幅较好的Meta、亚马逊股价并非单纯由AI叙事驱动，投资主线在于顺周期业务复苏；微软和谷歌在于AI乐观预期能否在云业务上兑现，亚马逊在戴维斯双击行情下能够容忍AWS营收增速放缓。24年高额资本开支逐渐成为大型云厂商业绩的拖累，云业务营收能否加速增长成为科技巨头最重要的投资主线。复盘2023年至今美股云厂商股价，AIDC叙事大致可以分为三个阶段：1)阶段一：资本开支显著增长，管理层对于AIDC的投资回报率表述积极，驱动股价抬升；2)阶段二：市场开始寻求AIDC商业化落地，云业务增速放缓或指引不及预期均会对股价造成压力；3)阶段三：市场开始担忧AIDC的投资回报率不及预期，以及高额资本开支为公司带来的折旧成本压力。美股科技巨头AI投资周期各异，25年资本开支将继续扩张。24Q4微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta资本开支分别为226、143、263、148亿美元，同比分别增长96.5%、29.8%、87.9%、87.9%，现金资本开支普遍超预期。2024年科技巨头资本开支占经营现金流的比例超40%。美股科技巨头资本开支指引积极。1)Meta：预计25年资本开支600-650亿美元，同比增长54.6%-67.5%；2)Oracle：预计25财年资本开支翻倍；3)微软：25年资本开支继续扩张，云业务毛利率压力初步显现；4)谷歌：25年资本开支将达到750亿美元，同比增长43%，高于一致预期27%；5)亚马逊：预计25年资本开支达1052亿美元，同比增长34.5%。复盘科技巨头历史投资周期，对公司盈利带来的压力有多大？长期盈利压力排序为微软>亚马逊>Meta>谷歌。微软云业务利润释放基本结束，亚马逊电商业务的物流履约费用率仍有降低空间；Meta资本开支同时服务于生成式AI战略和主营广告业务收入的结构性提升，打开收入端增长空间；谷歌现金流充裕，云营业利润率相比微软智能云、AWS仍有提升空间。国内互联网大厂开启新一轮资本投入周期，AIDC叙事将如何演绎？25年国内互联网大厂陆续进入新一轮AI投资周期。24Q4阿里巴巴资本开支317.8亿元，环比增长81.7%，未来三年资本开支将超过过去十年的总和，预计将给盈利带来一定的压力，但基础设施会很快被内外部客户需求消化。传统云需求回暖叠加AI业务带来的增量，有望驱动2025年国内云厂商营收超预期加速增长，持续提振国内AIDC投资情绪。随着互联网公司AI相关投入增加，云计算市场提振信号明显，多家云厂商收入增速在24H2实现触底反弹。本轮国内AIDC行情可类比2023年美股云厂商行情。风险分析：AI技术研发和产品迭代遭遇瓶颈；AI行业竞争加剧风险；商业化进展不及预期风险；国内外政策风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.32.1","shortVersion":"4.32.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2517177334"}

光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张 关注云厂商投资机会

精彩评论

光大证券：海内外AIDC资本开支将持续扩张关注云厂商投资机会