天风证券：光伏行业新技术与储能市场发展报告

财中社03-07

3月7日，天风证券发布电力设备行业报告。光伏：看好新技术和供给侧改革方向1、新技术：当前光伏行业的主要矛盾是需求增速放缓，供给过剩。新技术不仅可以加速淘汰落后产能，提前供给出清的时间点。在弱需求背景下，新技术渗透率提升是增速最高的成长环节。新技术方面，2025年重点关注BC和HJT两条线。BC量产功率优势明显，规模化降本后迎来盈利与TOPCon的交叉点。自2024年下半年以来，TOPCon技术...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2517129078?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-03-07 12:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2517129078","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"天风证券：光伏行业新技术与储能市场发展报告","media":"财中社","content":"<div>\n<p>3月7日，天风证券发布电力设备行业报告。光伏：看好新技术和供给侧改革方向1、新技术：当前光伏行业的主要矛盾是需求增速放缓，供给过剩。新技术不仅可以加速淘汰落后产能，提前供给出清的时间点。在弱需求背景下，新技术渗透率提升是增速最高的成长环节。新技术方面，2025年重点关注BC和HJT两条线。BC量产功率优势明显，规模化降本后迎来盈利与TOPCon的交叉点。自2024年下半年以来，TOPCon技术...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250307121111963cfb10&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>天风证券：光伏行业新技术与储能市场发展报告</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天风证券：光伏行业新技术与储能市场发展报告\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-03-07 12:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250307121111963cfb10&s=b><strong>财中社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月7日，天风证券发布电力设备行业报告。光伏：看好新技术和供给侧改革方向1、新技术：当前光伏行业的主要矛盾是需求增速放缓，供给过剩。新技术不仅可以加速淘汰落后产能，提前供给出清的时间点。在弱需求背景下，新技术渗透率提升是增速最高的成长环节。新技术方面，2025年重点关注BC和HJT两条线。BC量产功率优势明显，规模化降本后迎来盈利与TOPCon的交叉点。自2024年下半年以来，TOPCon技术...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250307121111963cfb10&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"688560","symbol_name":"明冠新材","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250307121111963cfb10&s=b","article_id":"2517129078","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250307121111963cfb10&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2517129078","pubTimestamp":1741320619,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"3月7日，天风证券发布电力设备行业报告。新技术方面，2025年重点关注BC和HJT两条线。自2024年下半年以来，TOPCon技术发展缓慢。2025年光伏行业主要边际变化来自于供给侧改革，也是主要的投资思路之一。光伏行业仍处于全行业亏损状态，达成自律符合所有市场参与者利益。报告持续看好1）行业层面：全球储能需求持续提升。2024年下半年开始亚非拉相关储能项目规划明显加速，报告预计2025年东南亚各国、印度、非洲等地区储能需求同样有望加速。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600151":"航天机电","600207":"安彩高科","600256":"广汇能源","600330":"天通股份","600395":"盘江股份","600438":"通威股份","600481":"双良节能","600482":"中国动力","600537":"亿晶光电","600549":"厦门钨业","600585":"海螺水泥","600590":"泰豪科技","600710":"苏美达","600732":"爱旭股份","600784":"鲁银投资","600876":"凯盛新能","601012":"隆基绿能","601126":"四方股份","601139":"深圳燃气","601162":"天风证券","601619":"嘉泽新能","601636":"旗滨集团","601865":"福莱特","601956":"东贝集团","603112":"华翔股份","603113":"金能科技","603169":"兰石重装","603185":"弘元绿能","603212":"赛伍技术","603281":"江瀚新材","603381":"永臻股份","603396":"金辰股份","603398":"沐邦高科","603507":"振江股份","603628":"清源股份","603693":"江苏新能","603806":"福斯特","603861":"白云电器","603931":"格林达","603938":"三孚股份","605117":"德业股份","688032":"禾迈股份","688147":"微导纳米","688223":"晶科能源","688303":"大全能源","688348":"昱能科技","688390":"固德威","688408":"中信博","688429":"时创能源","688472":"阿特斯","688503":"聚和材料","688516":"奥特维","688556":"高测股份","688560":"明冠新材","688598":"金博股份","688599":"天合光能","688678":"福立旺","688680":"海优新材","688698":"伟创电气","688700":"东威科技","688717":"艾罗能源","688726":"拉普拉斯","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0276":"资本市场","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU1580142542.USD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 USD","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0187":"一线龙头","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0054":"太阳能发电","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","BK0175":"白马股","LU2348773727.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Asian Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU1820825898.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","BK0224":"电气机械","BK0028":"国家队","SGXZ49509284.SGD":"United China A Shares Innovation A Acc SGD","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU1655091616.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A-Share Opportunities A (acc) SGD","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU1146622755.USD":"安本中国A股股票基金A Acc","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU2153592121.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU2153591404.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Asian Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU2348774022.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK0201":"可转债"},"translate_title":"Tianfeng Securities: Photovoltaic industry new technology and energy storage market development report","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600151":0.9,"600207":0.9,"600256":0.9,"600330":0.9,"600395":0.9,"600438":0.9,"600481":0.9,"600482":0.9,"600537":0.9,"600549":0.9,"600585":0.9,"600590":0.9,"600710":0.9,"600732":0.9,"600784":0.9,"600876":0.9,"601012":0.9,"601126":0.9,"601139":0.9,"601162":1,"601619":0.9,"601636":0.9,"601865":0.9,"601956":0.9,"603112":0.9,"603113":0.9,"603169":0.9,"603185":0.9,"603212":0.9,"603281":0.9,"603381":0.9,"603396":0.9,"603398":0.9,"603507":0.9,"603628":0.9,"603693":0.9,"603806":0.9,"603861":0.9,"603931":0.9,"603938":0.9,"605117":0.9,"688032":0.9,"688147":0.9,"688223":0.9,"688303":0.9,"688348":0.9,"688390":0.9,"688408":0.9,"688429":0.9,"688472":0.9,"688503":0.9,"688516":0.9,"688556":0.9,"688560":0.9,"688598":0.9,"688599":0.9,"688678":0.9,"688680":0.9,"688698":0.9,"688700":0.9,"688717":0.9,"688726":0.9},"content_text":"3月7日，天风证券发布电力设备行业报告。光伏：看好新技术和供给侧改革方向1、新技术：当前光伏行业的主要矛盾是需求增速放缓，供给过剩。新技术不仅可以加速淘汰落后产能，提前供给出清的时间点。在弱需求背景下，新技术渗透率提升是增速最高的成长环节。新技术方面，2025年重点关注BC和HJT两条线。BC量产功率优势明显，规模化降本后迎来盈利与TOPCon的交叉点。自2024年下半年以来，TOPCon技术发展缓慢。但N型BC量产功率较TOPCon高1% abs，同版型组件功率高出30~35W。虽然TOPCon未来仍可通过技术进步提高效率，但是需要增加额外的工艺步骤和改造成本。尤其是在TOPCon正面钝化，需要增加LPCVD、激光设备，使得TOPCon工艺步骤、投资额向BC技术看齐，但是效率预计始终存在差距。因此BC或成为进一步提效的选择。在当前功率条件下，BC较TOPCon理论溢价在0.10元/W以上。虽然当前BC成本仍然较高，但随着规模降本（2025年隆基绿能出货目标30GW，爱旭股份出货目标20GW）、效率提升、工艺技术降本，BC组件盈利有望打平甚至超过TOPCon，成为晶硅下一代量产技术。看好BC量产领先的隆基绿能、爱旭股份，设备端建议关注BC扩产带来明确增量的帝尔激光、拉普拉斯。HJT有望实现海外从0到1产能突破。1）海外扩产HJT不会存在像TOPCon一样的专利壁垒。2）海外选择HJT可以最大程度放大HJT工艺步骤端、自动化程度高的优势，降低人工成本、环保成本，同时由于海外土地、厂房等成本较高，可以最小化HJT设备投资额较高的劣势。3）HJT硅片更薄，海外硅料价格更高相应硅成本方面优势明显。4）美国等市场以Utility Solar为主，HJT双面率高天然适合于地势平坦地区。5）海外有望实现HJT从0到1的突破2、供给侧改革：2025年预计全球需求增速约10%，相较于2024年大幅放缓，供给端仍然过剩。2025年光伏行业主要边际变化来自于供给侧改革，也是主要的投资思路之一。股价复盘：2024年10月光伏板块大涨之后，逐步进入到政策兑现期。虽然当前行业自律已经开始执行，但12月行业无更多政策催化，以及国电新疆巴州项目低价中标，使市场质疑行业自律效果，光伏板块股价已基本跌去10月以来涨幅。淡季涨价已经显示出行业自律效果。光伏行业仍处于全行业亏损状态，达成自律符合所有市场参与者利益。12月中下旬以来，行业淡季涨价本身已经体现出自律效果，电池、胶膜、玻璃等价格上升也有助于组件成本向下游传导。报告对于后续组件价格呈乐观态度，在后续的招投标中可能会看到更明确的信号。板块业绩有望于2025年第一季度达到相对底部，寻找边际改善明显，下半年有增量逻辑的公司。大部分公司业绩有望于2025年第一季度达到相对底部（组件公司报表层面交付均价有望于2025年第一季度收敛到现货价格水平），组件公司可以看拐点/困境反转，硅料、硅片、电池预计可以看到业绩显著分化，找到2025年第一季度边际改善明显，今年边际有变化/有增量的公司，有望迎来需求、涨价、政策、业绩四重共振。具体环节上，建议关注光伏玻璃（短期产能刚性，节后价格有望上涨）的信义光能，硅片&电池（库存率见达到相对底部，盈利有望率先迎来拐点）的双良节能、钧达股份，硅料（价格达到相对底部，最差的时期已过）看好协鑫科技，胶膜看好成本优势明显第二曲线放量的福斯特。3、需求结构性亮点：尽管总需求乏善可陈，但印度、中东等细分市场仍不乏亮点，海外电池片供应仍然紧缺。建议关注受益亚非拉市场高增长的中信博，以及率先布局海外电池产能的横店东磁、钧达股份。储能：推荐全球储能龙头、亚非拉、美国市场三条主线1、需求端：传统市场不确定性提升，相比于总量更看重结构；亚非拉市场边际改善确定性强。中国储能需求仍需跟踪光伏装机；美国悲观情况下2026年美国储能装机量将有所下滑（但仍将高于2023年水平），而后2027-2028年重回增长态势；欧洲传统户储需求放缓，大储&工商储需求有望高增。亚非拉市场的光储需求向上的边际驱动因素包括：发达国家资金支持的逐步落地、光伏投资成本下降刺激下游需求、弱电网+高光伏经济性，带来分布式光伏及配储需求、政策支持+主权基金推动等。2、关注供给端的两个变化，大储看构网型、户储适配亚非拉需求。1）伴随新能源渗透率不断提升，“跟网”向“构网”转变逐步成为行业共识，也成为储能技术未来发展的趋势之一。构网型储能技术是支撑新型电力系统建设的刚需，应对“双高”电网（高比例清洁能源、高比例电力电子装置）带来的发电随机性、波动性、低惯量、离散化等挑战，需要构网型技术来实现频率稳定、电压稳定和功角稳定的支撑。构网型储能系统则更适合于新型电力系统，尤其是在新能源比重较高、电网稳定性较差的地区，例如西北地区、新疆以及西藏等电网较弱的省份，目前部分省份已明确提及构网型储能重要性。2）兼容柴油发电机和铅酸电池、离网切换时间缩短、离网带载能力等更适合亚非拉市场需求的功能，以及成本性价比更高的低压系统成为趋势。重点推荐全球储能龙头，以及亚非拉、美国市场三条主线：重点推荐全球市占率领先的储能系统龙头企业【阳光电源】。报告持续看好1）行业层面：全球储能需求持续提升。国家分布上报告看好美国、欧洲、亚非拉等海外不同地区储能需求形成多点共振。2）公司层面：2024年以来全球多地持续获单，品牌力、营销力、产品力、服务力层面优势有望持续打造公司竞争壁垒。2024年下半年开始亚非拉相关储能项目规划明显加速，报告预计2025年东南亚各国、印度、非洲等地区储能需求同样有望加速。重点推荐已在亚非拉市场有所布局的相关公司，有望跟随亚非拉增量市场获得业绩弹性。重点推荐【上能电气】、【德业股份】（与家电团队联合覆盖）、【艾罗能源】，建议关注【锦浪科技】。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.33.2","shortVersion":"4.33.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2517129078"}