CROWDSTRIKE：净新增ARR超预期 FALCONFLEX效能释放

中金公司2025-03-06

CrowdStrike FY4Q25 业绩小幅高于我们预期公司公布FY4Q25 业绩：收入同比/环比增长25.2%/4.8%至10.6 亿美元，其中，订阅收入同比/环比增长26.7%/4.7%至10.1 亿美元；毛利率同比下滑1ppt 至74%；销售/研发/管理费用率分别+5ppt/5ppt/2ppt 至39%/30%/14%；营运亏损8,530 万美元，归母净亏损9,228 万美元，均同比转亏；...

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和Commitment Package 带来的客户需求有效提振。发展趋势平台化顺利推进，Falcon Flex 提振用户粘性。运营指标方面，公司总收入留存率为97%，环比持平；净收入留存率为112%，环比下降3ppt，主要由于Commitment package 带来的短期影响。ARR 同比增长23%至42.4亿美元，净新增ARR 同比下降20%/环比增长47%至2.2 亿美元，高于市场预期20%，主要由于Commitment Package 和Falcon Flex 解决方案有效实施，推动用户平台采购率提升。本季度订阅5+/6+/7+/8+模块的客户分别增长至67%/48%/32%/21%。新产品方面，云安全+身份安全+下一代SIEM ARR 总和超13 亿美元，同比增长15%，云安全/身份安全/下一代SIEM ARR 分别同比增长超45%/20%/115%至6/3.7/3.3 亿美元。数据优势赋能公司AI 安全加速落地。公司基于在端点安全领域收集的高质量数据，有望在AI 安全市场率先领跑，例如打造AI Agent、提升威胁情报准确率等。同时，公司AI 原生平台依托数据分析+机器学习能力加速赋能安全运营中心，助力用户提质增效。盈利预测与估值我们维持公司FY2026 收入基本不变，由于公司在“719”事件后需要给予客户更多折扣及活动，销售及管理费用率可能提升，叠加研发端AI 安全投入较高，我们下调公司经调整归母净利润25.8%至8.8 亿美元。引入FY2027 收入57.9 亿美元和归母净利润13.5 亿美元。维持中性评级和目标价321 美元不变，对应FY2026 17 倍P/S，较当前股价有17.7%的下行空间，当前公司交易于FY26 20 倍P/S。风险上行风险：AI 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