担心美国经济恶化，高盛首席美股策略师：标普500的每次反弹都可能是暂时的

华尔街见闻2025-03-03

近期，美国股市表现疲软，标普500指数周五盘中一度抹去2024年的全部涨幅。对此，高盛集团对美股前景发出警告。策略师David Kostin认为，标普500指数的任何反弹都可能是暂时的，目前的仓位水平仍不足以触发“因仓位过低而带来的战术性上涨”。他强调： "要完全扭转近期股市疲软态势，美国经济增长前景必须出现改善。" 值得注意的是，Kostin 在2024年曾是美股的坚定看多者。但对于...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742271><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，美国股市表现疲软，标普500指数周五盘中一度抹去2024年的全部涨幅。\n对此，高盛集团对美股前景发出警告。策略师David Kostin认为，标普500指数的任何反弹都可能是暂时的，目前的仓位水平仍不足以触发“因仓位过低而带来的战术性上涨”。他强调：\n\n\"要完全扭转近期股市疲软态势，美国经济增长前景必须出现改善。\"\n\n值得注意的是，Kostin 在2024年曾是美股的坚定看多者。但对于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3742271\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2471134796.USD","symbol_name":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) 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在2024年曾是美股的坚定看多者。但对于2025年，他认为“股票回报率将低于去年，与盈利增长轨迹相符”，预示着更为温和的市场前景。\n经济增长担忧成主导，反弹或难持续\n今年以来，美国股市表现疲软，一方面是由于投资者对科技巨头的高估值感到担忧。另一方面，投资者也在质疑美国总统特朗普的“美国优先”政策是否可能引发通货膨胀并导致经济放缓。\n这些担忧情绪直接反映在市场表现上。今年迄今，标普500指数仅上涨约1%，而MSCI全球指数（不包括美国）则上涨了5%。美股表现明显落后于国际市场。\n\nKostin他强调，“美国经济增长前景的改善将是完全扭转近期股市疲软的必要条件”，并将全年盈利增长预期从11%下调至9%。\n高盛全球市场董事总经理Scott Rubner也在另一份报告中表达了对美股反弹可持续性的质疑。Rubner上个月转向看空立场，原因是零售投资者等买方资金流入减弱。他指出，目前市场正处于持仓清理的最后阶段。\n大摩著名大空头Michael  Wilson也表示，股票可能对经济增长比对债券收益率的回落更为敏感。这意味着，即便债券收益率下降，如果经济增长前景不佳，股市仍可能承压。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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