3月动力电池出货量料强劲增长，高盛：电池销售与股价“强相关”

华尔街见闻03-03

高盛集团分析师Eric Shen和Qiying Wei在最新发布的研究报告中表示，根据lCCSino的数据，中国动力电池行业3月份出货量有望超出市场预期，环比增长15%，这将成为2025年电池需求前景的积极指标。分析师指出，这一强劲的月度增长预期进一步巩固了他们对行业周期性复苏的判断，同时，这也将成为推动相关上市公司股价上涨的潜在催化剂，为它们带来业绩增长和估值提升的机会。电池出货量“狂飙”，谁是...

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Wei在最新发布的研究报告中表示，根据lCCSino的数据，中国动力电池行业3月份出货量有望超出市场预期，环比增长15%，这将成为2025年电池需求前景的积极指标。分析师指出，这一强劲的月度增长预期进一步巩固了他们对行业周期性复苏的判断，同时，这也将成为推动相关上市公司股价上涨的潜在催化剂，为它们带来业绩增长和估值提升的机会。电池出货量“狂飙”，谁是最大赢家？值得注意的是，由于农历新年假期，1月至2月通常是电池出货的淡季，因此3月意外的强劲增长预期更能振奋市场。高盛的报告指出，自2024年以来，电池出货量与宁德时代(CATL)和湖南裕能(Yuneng)等企业的股价表现呈现高度相关性。基于这一判断，高盛维持对宁德时代和湖南裕能的“买入”评级，分别给予它们378元和66.6元的目标价。今日，宁德时代报收273.53元/股，目标价比当前高38%。报告指出，宁德时代是“全球最大和最具创新力的电池制造商”，2023年全球市场份额达40%，并将从全球电气化趋势中获益：“宁德时代将在2024-2030年实现25%的EPS复合年增长率，这将由21%的销量复合增长率和单位毛利润的扩大所驱动，从2024年的193元/千瓦时提升至2026年约200元/千瓦时。”湖南裕能2024年全球市场份额约为34%，分析师认为，该公司将成为即将到来的LFP正极材料上行周期的主要受益者。高盛预计，湖南裕能在2024-2026年将实现约187%的EPS复合年增长率，单位毛利从2024年的2,400元/吨扩大到2026年的6,000元/吨。磷酸铁锂电池材料需求回暖显著，价格看涨报告还特别关注了上游材料市场的供需状况，其中，磷酸铁锂（LFP）正极材料的供应紧张状况尤为突出。数据显示，该领域的产能利用率预计在2025年3月将提高至约93%，较2月的81%明显回升，接近2024年旺季水平。这意味着，无论是储能系统（BESS）还是新能源汽车（NEV），对LFP电池的需求都在持续增长。LFP电池也凭借其出色的成本优势，正在逐步消除市场对储能系统强制性要求可能取消的担忧。分析师预计：“在供需紧张的情况持续下，LFP正极材料价格上涨及2024-2026年的上行周期将从基本面角度逐步显现。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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