房地产行业专题研究报告-从“台积电效应”看杭州：科技进步支撑楼市可持续发展

国金证券股份有...2025-02-26

投资逻辑：台积电对台湾的意义：台湾不可或缺的重要经济支柱。2023 年台积电营收为21617 亿新台币，台积电营收占全台GDP 比重接近9%，营收占台湾出口额约16%。税收和就业方面，台积电同样对台湾做出重要贡献。2024 台积电交的所得税金额为2334 亿新台币，占台湾总税收超过6%。2023 年台积电雇用员工数超过7 万人，考虑其带动产业链就业人数超40 万人，总计占全台总就业人口的3.5%。...

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万人，总计占全台总就业人口的3.5%。整体经营规模决定了台积电对台湾经济的发展有着举足轻重的意义。“台积电效应”形成过程：人口及产业发展带动房价持续上涨。定址：台积电的选址重视产业集群，目前主要晶圆厂集中在三大科学园区，其中新竹科学园区作为台积电的发源地，周边的半导体相关的产业资源十分丰富。人口流入与收入：台积电的高速发展不仅带动员工数量不断增加，相应的薪酬收入增速也明显优于同行业。台积电2012-2023 年员工数量期间复合增速接近7%，显著高于全台湾同行业增速，2023 年台积电薪资是行业平均的2.5 倍。房价走势：台积电所处重点科技园区保持人才吸引力，相关产业链及家属不断带来人口流入，多年来房价涨幅好于平均水平；部分新厂区前期房价房价走势偏弱，台积电能有效改变其房价走势。房价上涨的节奏：公司高速发展时期为房价涨幅最快的阶段。受益于2020 年疫情冲击下的“缺芯潮”以及2023 年的AI 浪潮，台积电近年来规模快速扩张，对应新竹地区房价在近几年上涨超过100%，涨幅显著高于其他时间。杭州：短期的筑底终将结束，长期的产业经济发展、人口流入、购买力提升将奠定楼市持续稳健发展的根基。政策回顾：24 年政策应放尽放，杭州已迎来史上最宽松的购房环境，促进楼市回归市场化，加速推动购房需求的入市。市场回顾：24 年的三轮政策后市场迎来修复，其中10.9 新政效果最显著，四季度市场呈现止跌回稳的趋势：二手住宅成交量活跃，全年二手成交套数首超新房；新房销售量逐月上升，走出翘尾行情；新房及二手房价格均止跌后略有上升。短期展望：主要受市场供需关系主导，其中新房供给已大幅缩量，主城新房较为短缺，或存在涨价预期；二手房整体挂牌量较大，面临一定去化压力，尤其部分区域或存在投资客抛盘的情况。中长期展望：当前杭州面向新一轮科技发展，政策及资金正不断加码。未来或有望逐步培养出行业巨头，走出类似台积电的路径，带动杭州的经济及楼市的健康长远发展。投资建议：在以AI、机器人为首的新一轮科技变革中，国内城市中杭州已拔得头筹，涌现出了以“杭州六小龙”为代表的一大批科创企业，同时近期阿里巴巴公布的最新业绩及CAPEX 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