招商证券：房地产板块短期配置建议及市场观察

财中社2025-02-25

2月25日，招商证券发布房地产行业报告。短期市场数据表现相对平稳甚至有一定亮点，虽然不能据此线性外推，但判断在5月以前，很难对大盘带来系统性的担忧，难以对A股大盘形成拖累，反而因为销售的局部亮点对A股大盘带来支撑。从配置的角度，虽然短期不一定有明显的政策BETA，建议投资者在当下配置地产板块，有相对和绝对两个思路：相对角度，投资人除了选择高成长预期的个股外，也要在估值上找到平衡，主流房地产股票里头...

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PB或是一个参考。春节以来成交数据有一定亮点，二手房“小阳春”开局热度或好于市场预期。数据层面，春节以来（农历初一至廿三，阳历1月29日-2月20日）二手房累计网签面积较去年农历同期（对应阳历24年2月10日-3月3日）增加33%。而新房数据表现则相对平淡，春节以来（农历初一至廿三）新房累计网签面积较去年农历同期减少19%。即便考虑到新房网签或有一定滞后，从更领先的成交量信心指数来看，今年节后两周成交量信心指数（2月3-16日）均值较去年节后两周（2月19日-3月3日）均值低1PCT成交表现较好的同时，供给层面挂牌量仍处于高位，当前市场或处于“供需两旺”的“不稳定均衡”，仅根据短期数据线性外推或不可取，4月或是基本面的重要观察节点。从挂牌量来看，2024年10月至12月二手房存续挂牌套数连续三月环比下降，分别环比-0.9%/-1.5%/-0.1%，2025年1月环比回升0.5%，整体挂牌量仍保持高位。2-3月“小阳春”期间在需求季节性释放的支撑下，市场或可维持“供需两旺”的均衡。但“供需两旺”的均衡自身具有脆弱性，不可简单根据短期需求数据线性外推作出市场企稳的判断，4月或是市场基本面的重要观察节点，若4月需求端热度减少，在高供给压制下不排除存量房价格仍有下行的可能性。总结来说，（1）短期市场数据表现相对平稳甚至有一定亮点，虽然不能据此线性外推，但判断在5月以前，很难对大盘带来系统性的担忧，难以对A股大盘形成拖累，反而因为销售的局部亮点对A股大盘带来支撑。（2）从配置的角度，虽然短期不一定有明显的政策BETA，建议投资者在当下配置地产板块，有相对和绝对两个思路：相对角度，投资人除了选择高成长预期的个股外，也要在估值上找到平衡，主流房地产股票里头普遍有估值下行有限，但上行弹性较大的标的，比如有股息率保护的标的以及困境公司反转带来的估值提振；绝对角度，伴随着企业端“信用底”变得清晰，前期回调较充分的个股已经进入了配置区间，比如估值明显低于考虑潜在减值压力调整后的1x 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