电力电气设备：上调中国风电2025年新增装机预测

中国国际金融股...02-25

行业近况近期，中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会（CWEA）发布2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量数据1，2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量为87.0GW，连续2 年创历史新高。评论CWEA统计2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量为87.0GW，同时风机出口呈现亮点。2024 年CWEA统计全国风电新增装机1.44 万台，容量86.99GW，同比增长9.6%，其中陆上风电81.37GW、海上风电5.62GW...

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年CWEA统计全国风电新增装机1.44 万台，容量86.99GW，同比增长9.6%，其中陆上风电81.37GW、海上风电5.62GW，整体符合过去几个月的行业预期。另外，CWEA披露2024 年中国风机直接出口量达到5.19GW，同比增长41.7%，创历史新高，另外远景能源等公司合计在海外建厂生产量达到3.3GW以上，共同印证中国风机的出海大趋势。上调中国2025 年风电新增装机预测。结合3Q24 行业主要整机厂在手订单数据和4Q24 的中标情况，我们估计2024 年末行业整机厂合计在手订单已经超过200GW（其中海外订单超过20GW），1Q25 以来我们观察到行业整体排产节奏明显强于去年同期，因此我们将此前在《风电设备2025年展望》中对于2025 年国内风电新增吊装量预测从110-120GW上调至115-125GW，其中对于陆上风电的装机预期更为乐观，但同时考虑到最新的海上风电项目建设情况，我们也结构性将海上风电新增吊装量预测从14-17GW下调至12-14GW。估值与建议结合行业基本面，我们建议短期关注陆风盈利弹性，中长期布局海风方向，重点推荐标的包括：1）低估值盈利改善的方向包括金雷股份、金风科技、运达股份等；2）海风弹性方向的东方电缆、海力风电等；3）海风管桩出口方向的大金重工。风险风电行业需求不及预期；原材料价格上涨；行业竞争加剧。行业近况近期，中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会（CWEA）发布2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量数据1，2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量为87.0GW，连续2 年创历史新高。评论CWEA统计2024 年中国风电新增吊装容量为87.0GW，同时风机出口呈现亮点。2024 年CWEA统计全国风电新增装机1.44 万台，容量86.99GW，同比增长9.6%，其中陆上风电81.37GW、海上风电5.62GW，整体符合过去几个月的行业预期。另外，CWEA披露2024 年中国风机直接出口量达到5.19GW，同比增长41.7%，创历史新高，另外远景能源等公司合计在海外建厂生产量达到3.3GW以上，共同印证中国风机的出海大趋势。上调中国2025 年风电新增装机预测。结合3Q24 行业主要整机厂在手订单数据和4Q24 的中标情况，我们估计2024 年末行业整机厂合计在手订单已经超过200GW（其中海外订单超过20GW），1Q25 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