兴业证券：BC和HJT电池2025年有望更大规模扩产

财中社02-24

2月24日，兴业证券发表研究报告称：效率是驱动技术迭代的原动力，BC与HJT技术相对同版型TOPCon单块组件有20-30W的功率提升，从转换效率增幅看已具备技术迭代条件。技术迭代需建立在效率优势的基础上，复盘前两轮技术迭代，新电池技术均有显著的效率提升，随着时间的推移和研究的深入，效率优势不断扩大：（1）单晶替代多晶，初期单晶较多晶效率绝对提升为1.5%，随着PERC, SE技术的导入以及银浆等...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250224133256abda729c&s=b><strong>财中社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月24日，兴业证券发表研究报告称：效率是驱动技术迭代的原动力，BC与HJT技术相对同版型TOPCon单块组件有20-30W的功率提升，从转换效率增幅看已具备技术迭代条件。技术迭代需建立在效率优势的基础上，复盘前两轮技术迭代，新电池技术均有显著的效率提升，随着时间的推移和研究的深入，效率优势不断扩大：（1）单晶替代多晶，初期单晶较多晶效率绝对提升为1.5%，随着PERC, SE技术的导入以及银浆等...</p>\n\n<a 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SE技术的导入以及银浆等的优化，单晶电池效率优势不断扩大，效率提升达到3.7%，最终多晶逐步退出市场。（2）TOPcon替代PERC，初期TOPcon较PERC效率提升0.4%，2023年达到1.6%，未来随着双面poly，HPE等技术的优化，TOPcon电池效率领先优势将继续扩大。BC和HJT电池均已具备优秀的量产性能，2025年有望看到更大规模扩产。电池新技术经过近几年的发展，逐步克服量产壁垒，当前已具备优异的量产性能。(1)BC电池：BC是平台型技术，理论效率更高。BC技术与PERC/TOPcon/HJT技术叠加可分别衍生出PBC/TBC/HBC技术。随着TOPcon技术的成熟与大规模发展，基于TOPcon电池的BC2.0技术相对于基于PERC的BC1.0技术有了较大的进步,目前BC2.0电池量产平均效率达到26.6%，良率达到95%以上。（2）HJT电池：HJT作为颠覆性晶硅制造技术，在技术发展和量产道路中遇到更多的困难。但HJT研发者通过双面微晶，金属化优化，TCO薄膜优化，CVD工艺优化等技术不断提升效率，降低成本，目前已具备优秀的量产性能。当前HJT平均功率已经突破735W（210-66版型），整线A级率超过97%，碎片率低于0.5%，产线稼动能力已接近100%。BC和HJT电池均已具备大规模扩产的条件。无银少银技术助力BC/HJT持续降本，BC/HJT在使用贱金属浆料方面具备天然优势。高昂的成本是制约新技术进一步扩张的绊脚石。目前TOPcon非硅成本已降至0.14-0.16元/W,根据我们假设测算，HJT/TBC电池非硅成本分别为0.190、0.197元/W,较TOPcon分别高0.038、0.045元/W。当前BC及HJT电池降本路径均较为明确，其中无银化降本是最主要方向，根据CPIA数据，银浆成本约为0.072元/W，约占电池非硅成本的52%。BC电池由于正负极栅线都在背面，在使用低电阻率低成本的铜/铝浆料方面有天然优势。而HJT电池由于使用低温浆料技术，在导入银包铜，电镀铜技术方面更为容易，预计30%银含浆料导入后，HJT成本可降低0.012-0.021元/W。新技术一旦具备量产条件后，其渗透率的提升往往超出市场预期。根据CPIA预测，TOPcon2023、2024的市场渗透率分别为18%/60%，而其实际渗透率分别为29%/80%，TOPcon仅用两年时间完成迭代，远超预期。我们预计未来三年BC/HJT技术有望共同对现有TOPcon技术进行迭代，从企业规划扩产来看，BC量产进度稍快于HJT,预计2025年BC渗透率达到13%，HJT渗透率达到8%，无银化技术的导入将进一步加速新技术迭代速度。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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