华创证券：新准则下险企季度业绩波动是短期主要看点

智通财经2025-02-24

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，险资2024年业绩整体均显著受益于924行情启动后权益市场回暖，但同时亦为2025年业绩带来基数压力，季度间增速波动或较为明显，但若增配FVOCI类资产有望部分减缓波动。展望2025年，资金配置上，从资负匹配的角度考虑，分红险销售有望构成权益配置提升的根本因素。当前保险板块核心担忧依旧在于潜在“利差损”危机，长端利率走势仍是估值中枢的重要影响因素之一；新准则...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1253338.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，险资2024年业绩整体均显著受益于924行情启动后权益市场回暖，但同时亦为2025年业绩带来基数压力，季度间增速波动或较为明显，但若增配FVOCI类资产有望部分减缓波动。展望2025年，资金配置上，从资负匹配的角度考虑，分红险销售有望构成权益配置提升的根本因素。当前保险板块核心担忧依旧在于潜在“利差损”危机，长端利率走势仍是估值中枢的重要影响因素之一；新准则...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1253338.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0348816934.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" 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focus","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"161027":1,"601318":0.6,"02601":0.9,"03145":0.6,"PNGAY":0.6,"02318":0.9,"01336":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，险资2024年业绩整体均显著受益于924行情启动后权益市场回暖，但同时亦为2025年业绩带来基数压力，季度间增速波动或较为明显，但若增配FVOCI类资产有望部分减缓波动。展望2025年，资金配置上，从资负匹配的角度考虑，分红险销售有望构成权益配置提升的根本因素。当前保险板块核心担忧依旧在于潜在“利差损”危机，长端利率走势仍是估值中枢的重要影响因素之一；新准则下，季度业绩波动是短期主要看点。华创证券主要观点如下：截至2024年底，保险业总资金运用余额达到33.26万亿，同比增长15.08%(披露口径)，增速同比提升4pct。险资规模提速增长，一方面来自负债端贡献，2024年保险业整体原保费增长11.2%，增速同比+2.1pct；另一方面则来自投资业绩贡献。2024年保险业财务/综合投资收益率分别达到3.43%/7.21%，同比改善显著，环比亦略有提升，预计主要受益于权益市场活跃度提升，险资把握市场风格变化机遇及时调整战术资产配置。截至2024年底，财产险公司与人身险公司合计共32.17万亿资金运用余额。固收类资产配置上，投向银行存款/债券分别为9.0%/49.5%，债券配置逐季度提升，预计主要原因在于长端利率下行驱使各险企重视久期管理，增配长债以缩短久期缺口。权益类资产配置方面，投向股票/基金/长股投分别为7.5%/5.2%/7.7%，环比来看整体敞口略有所收窄，基金/长股投分别减少0.5pct/0.1pct，同比整体权益类配置亦减少，但其中股票配置同比+0.4pct。四季度基金减持较为明显，基金会计计量只能是FVTPL，原因或在于减小924行情后市场回调对利润表的直接影响，尤其是通过贝塔属性较为明显的指数型基金。投资表现上，2024年财产险公司财务/综合投资收益率分别为3.05%/5.51%，同比分别+0.76pct/+2.14pct，环比来看前者略有下降，后者略有上升；人身险公司财务/综合投资收益率分别为3.48%/7.45%，同比+0.55pct/+4.58pct，环比均有所提升。华创证券表示，险资2024年业绩整体均显著受益于924行情启动后权益市场回暖，但同时亦为2025年业绩带来基数压力，季度间增速波动或较为明显，但若增配FVOCI类资产有望部分减缓波动。投资建议展望2025年，资金配置上，从资负匹配的角度考虑，分红险销售有望构成权益配置提升的根本因素。当前保险板块核心担忧依旧在于潜在“利差损”危机，长端利率走势仍是估值中枢的重要影响因素之一；新准则下，季度业绩波动是短期主要看点。此外，持续关注监管变动，预定利率动态调整细则、中长期资金入市、险资投资黄金试点等多政策已充分彰显监管对行业“利差损”潜在危机的重视程度，通过负债成本改善、投资渠道拓宽等多渠道，行业有望持续稳定发展。当前PEV估值：友邦1.13x、国寿0.80x、平安0.63x、太保0.55x、新华0.57x。PB估值：财险H1.11x、人保A1.15x、众安H0.99x。标的方面：中国平安(601318.SH,02318)、中国太保(601601.SH,02601)、新华保险(601336.SH,01336)、中国人寿(601628.SH,02628)，建议关注：中国财险(02328)。风险提示：监管变动、自然灾害加剧、长端利率下行、权益市场波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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华创证券：新准则下 险企季度业绩波动是短期主要看点

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华创证券：新准则下险企季度业绩波动是短期主要看点