券商观点|计算机行业周报：云计算-全面解析DeepSeek影响下的投资机会

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2025年2月16日，兴业证券发布了一篇计算机行业的研究报告，报告指出，云计算-全面解析DeepSeek影响下的投资机会。报告具体内容如下：投资要点： 2025年2月9日-2月15日，申万计算机指数上涨7.77%，跑赢万得全A指数6.1个百分点，位列2/31；交易额1.56万亿元，位列1/31。核心观点：2月行情渐入佳境，积极加仓具有补涨潜力的大龙头。计算机持续领跑，价值回归正加速。维持2月是...

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核心观点：2月行情渐入佳境，积极加仓具有补涨潜力的大龙头。计算机持续领跑，价值回归正加速。维持2月是上半年最重要的机会期的判断，本周计算机继续领跑，并创2024年以来新高。关注几点事实：1）2024年末计算机持仓水平仍明显低配，且处于历史低位；2）指数自2024年最低点至今的最高涨幅为91%，仍显著低于过去4轮上涨幅度中值；3）计算机2025年业绩将进入上行通道，且国内科技产业成长性信心正显著提振；4）过去10年，计算机指数自春节后到两会前上涨概率为90%。基于上，建议继续加配计算机板块，特别是具有补涨潜力的大龙头。国产AI生态投资机会有望遍地开花。关于DeepSeek，此前提出三大预判：1）DeepSeek是里程碑事件，但不会只是一次性催化，后来者会不断出现，带来产业持续发酵；2）在硬件端，对国产算力需求提升带来全面的驱动，坚定看多AI算力；3）在应用端，全面受益于成本下降，有望加速成熟及渗透，同时DeepSeek标签带来的溢价将被持续稀释，标的自身的产业价值和竞争力的溢价将更为重要。目前看，上述判断正不断获验证。继续维持上述观点，积极布局AI赋能溢价尚不显著的质优龙头。云计算的估值映射逻辑正全面修复。随着国内科技产业成长性信心提振，以及AI对云计算产业各环节的赋能及需求拉动，此前云计算海外映射的估值逻辑正全面修复。在IaaS端，DeepSeek的低成本效应正带动公有云的token调用需求加速增长，而DeepSeek的开源属性使得私有化部署的算力需求提振；在SaaS端，DeepSeek正加速大模型对场景应用的赋能及渗透，SaaS厂商可以灵活调用大模型API接口实现自身能力的上台阶，在增强获客能力及客单值的同时降低成本。考虑到中美科技股的此前的背离，国内云计算龙头的估值修复有望持续发酵。建议关注1）人工智能：海光信息、金山办公、广联达、恒生电子、用友网络、汉得信息、科大讯飞、同花顺、中科曙光、紫光股份、浪潮信息、深信服2）信创产业：中国软件、达梦数据、中国长城、太极股份、中孚信息、神州数码、海量数据、华东重机3）高性价比：慧翰股份、新大陆、合合信息、中控技术、广联达、用友网络、顶点软件、指南针、卫宁健康风险提示：板块业绩不达预期；下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险；科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。声明：本文引用第三方机构发布报告信息源，并不保证数据的实时性、准确性和完整性，数据仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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