【信达消费-轻工】造纸：浆纸同涨、盈利回暖

独具姜心-姜文镪团队2025-02-18

纸浆供应端持续震荡，外盘延续上涨。海外供应端检修、罢工持续发酵，国外浆厂自1月起连发涨价函，阔叶/针叶外盘报价较本轮周期底部已分别提涨40/30美元/吨至590/815美元/吨，内盘价格分别底部上涨533/493元/吨至4950/6587元/吨，我们预计3月海外浆厂报价延续上涨。当前海外浆厂提涨意愿强烈，且国内浆厂已提价或存提价计划，考虑到25年全球商品浆新增产能有限、国内自制浆增量主要为化机浆，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2512344169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-02-18 19:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2512344169","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"【信达消费-轻工】造纸：浆纸同涨、盈利回暖","media":"独具姜心-姜文镪团队","content":"<div>\n<p>纸浆供应端持续震荡，外盘延续上涨。海外供应端检修、罢工持续发酵，国外浆厂自1月起连发涨价函，阔叶/针叶外盘报价较本轮周期底部已分别提涨40/30美元/吨至590/815美元/吨，内盘价格分别底部上涨533/493元/吨至4950/6587元/吨，我们预计3月海外浆厂报价延续上涨。当前海外浆厂提涨意愿强烈，且国内浆厂已提价或存提价计划，考虑到25年全球商品浆新增产能有限、国内自制浆增量主要为化机浆，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218223531abd3b014&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【信达消费-轻工】造纸：浆纸同涨、盈利回暖</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【信达消费-轻工】造纸：浆纸同涨、盈利回暖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-18 19:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218223531abd3b014&s=b><strong>独具姜心-姜文镪团队</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>纸浆供应端持续震荡，外盘延续上涨。海外供应端检修、罢工持续发酵，国外浆厂自1月起连发涨价函，阔叶/针叶外盘报价较本轮周期底部已分别提涨40/30美元/吨至590/815美元/吨，内盘价格分别底部上涨533/493元/吨至4950/6587元/吨，我们预计3月海外浆厂报价延续上涨。当前海外浆厂提涨意愿强烈，且国内浆厂已提价或存提价计划，考虑到25年全球商品浆新增产能有限、国内自制浆增量主要为化机浆，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218223531abd3b014&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999014674.SGD","symbol_name":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218223531abd3b014&s=b","article_id":"2512344169","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218223531abd3b014&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2512344169","pubTimestamp":1739879085,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"纸浆供应端持续震荡，外盘延续上涨。造纸提价函发布，预计落地表现分化。浆纸同涨，盈利改善可期。此外，太阳、仙鹤、玖龙等上游林浆布局持续完善，浆纸同涨周期有望表现更优。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","BK1514":"人民币升值概念","02689":"玖龙纸业","BK1551":"纸业股","BK1223":"纸制品"},"translate_title":"[Cinda Consumption-Light Industry] Papermaking: Pulp and paper rose at the same time, and profits picked up","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02689":0.9},"content_text":"纸浆供应端持续震荡，外盘延续上涨。海外供应端检修、罢工持续发酵，国外浆厂自1月起连发涨价函，阔叶/针叶外盘报价较本轮周期底部已分别提涨40/30美元/吨至590/815美元/吨，内盘价格分别底部上涨533/493元/吨至4950/6587元/吨，我们预计3月海外浆厂报价延续上涨。当前海外浆厂提涨意愿强烈，且国内浆厂已提价或存提价计划，考虑到25年全球商品浆新增产能有限、国内自制浆增量主要为化机浆，我们预计浆价仍存上行空间。造纸提价函发布，预计落地表现分化。晨鸣供应端扰动仍存，浆价提涨背景下年后纸企联合提价，针对文化纸（普涨200元/吨）、白卡纸（普涨200元/吨）、特种纸（热敏普涨0.02元/平米）、包装纸（部分纸厂瓦楞价格上调）发布提价函。根据我们跟踪，白卡/文化纸纸厂库存合理，纸贸订单充裕、后续展望乐观，我们预计后续提价稳步落且仍有提价计划；包装纸节前涨幅较快，我们预计价格震荡为主（近日部分纸企已宣布下调价格）；特纸需求结构成长、整体稳健，我们预计旺季价格有望小幅提涨。浆纸同涨，盈利改善可期。1）浆纸系：25Q1受益于低价原材料持续入库、纸企成本压力有望环比改善，伴随提价落地（25开年至今双胶纸/铜版纸/白卡纸较24Q4分别+3.5%/+1.9%/+2.6%），浆纸系吨盈利环比有望修复。此外，太阳、仙鹤、玖龙等上游林浆布局持续完善，浆纸同涨周期有望表现更优。2）废纸系：节前提价落地幅度优异，尽管短期价格波动，但箱板纸/瓦楞纸25开年至今较24Q4已分别+3.2%/+6.4%，叠加国废回落，废纸系吨盈利有望维持稳健。标的关注：关注浆纸一体、盈利改善的太阳纸业，仙鹤股份、玖龙纸业等；关注华旺科技、五洲特纸、山鹰国际、博汇纸业等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2512344169","isCrawlerRequest":true}