通信行业：2024Q4 LUMENTUM与COHERENT光模块实现较高增速 2025Q1环比增速放缓

东兴证券2025-02-18

事件：（1）Lumentum 发布2024Q4 财报，云计算与网络部门营收3.39亿美元，环比增长20.2%，同比增长18.3%；（2）Coherent 发布2024Q4财报，网络业务部门营收8.16 亿美元，环比增长7.0%，同比增长55.6%。点评：Lumentum 云计算与网络部门营收实现较高增长，主要受益于超大规模云客户对光模块需求的不断增加。具体来讲，数据中心内部及数据中心之间的互联需求...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250218114125abd30584&s=b><strong>东兴证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>事件：（1）Lumentum 发布2024Q4 财报，云计算与网络部门营收3.39亿美元，环比增长20.2%，同比增长18.3%；（2）Coherent 发布2024Q4财报，网络业务部门营收8.16 亿美元，环比增长7.0%，同比增长55.6%。点评：Lumentum 云计算与网络部门营收实现较高增长，主要受益于超大规模云客户对光模块需求的不断增加。具体来讲，数据中心内部及数据中心之间的互联需求...</p>\n\n<a 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积极推进产能扩充与技术投资。泰国新工厂的建设正在稳步推进，并且公司加大对磷化铟晶圆产线及光芯片制造的投资力度，以确保未来能够满足市场需求并保持竞争优势。同样，AI 数据中心强劲需求推动Coherent 公司网络业务部门实现环比7%增长。2024Q4，Coherent 公司800G 光模块的销售创下了历史新高；持续拓展与新型100G ZR、400G ZR/ZR+和800G ZR 相干收发器（DCO）相关的客户合作，巩固其在市场的领先地位；电信业务的稳步发展也有效推动光模块等相关产品的销售增长。此外，Coherent公司成功交付了首批1.6T 光模块样品，并预计将在2025 年内增加1.6T数据通信光模块的销售，为公司带来新的增长点。展望2025Q1，Lumentum 公司与Coherent 公司光模块业务环比增速放缓。（1）根据Lumentum 公司公告，预计2025Q1 营收4.1-4.25 亿美元，包括云计算与网络部门和工业技术部门。根据我们测算，预计2025Q1Lumentum 公司云计算与网络部门营业收入3.57-3.72 亿美元，环比增长5.2%-9.7%。（2）根据Coherent 公司公告，预计2025Q1 营收13.9-14.8 亿美元，包括网络业务、材料以及激光器三个部门。根据我们测算，预计2025Q1Coherent 公司网络业务营业收入7.85-8.75 亿美元， 环比增长-3.8%-7.2%。增速下滑主要受100G EML 以及谷歌和英伟达推迟部署1.6T 收发器的影响。投资建议：作为全球光模块龙头，Lumentum 与Coherent 对国内光模块行业具有较强的业绩前瞻性。展望2025Q1，Lumentum 公司与Coherent 公司光模块业务环比增速放缓。我们认为，短期来看，2025Q1 国内光模块行业或将同样增长放缓。另一方面， 国内DeepSeek 发布的开源模型表现优异，引领全球AI 加速创新变革，有望开启国内人工智能集群升级。因此，我们继续看好国内光模块行业发展前景。风险提示：光模块市场需求下降，云厂商对1.6T 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