轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限

信达证券2025-02-19

（以下内容从信达证券《轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限》研报附件原文摘录）本期内容提要:关税初步落地，影响有限。关税初步落地，目前多数公司与客户仍在协商（FOB模式下现阶段客户承担关税为主），我们预计未来将通过产品更新、供应商小幅降价、终端小幅提价共同消化。龙头企业海外产能布局完善，订单加速外移背景下有望受益。此外，近期越南表示愿意开放市场、从美国增加进口各类农产品...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2512126589?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-02-19 08:05","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2512126589","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限","media":"信达证券","content":"<div>\n<p>（以下内容从信达证券《轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限》研报附件原文摘录）本期内容提要:关税初步落地，影响有限。关税初步落地，目前多数公司与客户仍在协商（FOB模式下现阶段客户承担关税为主），我们预计未来将通过产品更新、供应商小幅降价、终端小幅提价共同消化。龙头企业海外产能布局完善，订单加速外移背景下有望受益。此外，近期越南表示愿意开放市场、从美国增加进口各类农产品...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219080557988a5d6d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-19 08:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219080557988a5d6d&s=b><strong>信达证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（以下内容从信达证券《轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限》研报附件原文摘录）本期内容提要:关税初步落地，影响有限。关税初步落地，目前多数公司与客户仍在协商（FOB模式下现阶段客户承担关税为主），我们预计未来将通过产品更新、供应商小幅降价、终端小幅提价共同消化。龙头企业海外产能布局完善，订单加速外移背景下有望受益。此外，近期越南表示愿意开放市场、从美国增加进口各类农产品...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219080557988a5d6d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"603863","symbol_name":"松炀资源","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219080557988a5d6d&s=b","article_id":"2512126589","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219080557988a5d6d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2512126589","pubTimestamp":1739923554,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"关税初步落地，目前多数公司与客户仍在协商，我们预计未来将通过产品更新、供应商小幅降价、终端小幅提价共同消化。海外需求韧性突出，开年订单乐观。此外，天振股份24H2订单逐步复苏，我们预计25Q1同比低基数下增速靓丽。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600076":"康欣新材","600103":"青山纸业","600210":"紫江企业","600235":"民丰特纸","600308":"华泰股份","600337":"美克家居","600356":"恒丰纸业","600433":"冠豪高新","600567":"山鹰国际","600793":"宜宾纸业","600963":"岳阳林纸","600966":"博汇纸业","601515":"衢州东峰","601968":"宝钢包装","601996":"丰林集团","603008":"喜临门","603021":"ST华鹏","603022":"新通联","603058":"永吉股份","603091":"众鑫股份","603165":"荣晟环保","603180":"金牌家居","603195":"公牛集团","603208":"江山欧派","603216":"梦天家居","603221":"爱丽家居","603226":"菲林格尔","603268":"*ST松发","603272":"联翔股份","603313":"梦百合","603326":"我乐家居","603385":"惠达卫浴","603389":"*ST亚振","603408":"建霖家居","603429":"集友股份","603499":"翔港科技","603600":"永艺股份","603607":"京华激光","603610":"麒盛科技","603615":"茶花股份","603661":"恒林股份","603687":"大胜达","603709":"中源家居","603725":"天安新材","603733":"仙鹤股份","603801":"志邦家居","603816":"顾家家居","603818":"曲美家居","603833":"欧派家居","603838":"*ST四通","603848":"好太太","603863":"松炀资源","603898":"好莱客","603899":"晨光股份","603992":"松霖科技","605007":"五洲特纸","605080":"浙江自然","605099":"共创草坪","605155":"西大门","605268":"王力安防","605299":"舒华体育","605377":"华旺科技","605500":"森林包装","BK0224":"电气机械"},"translate_title":"Comments on light manufacturing industry matters: Exports: Optimistic orders at the beginning of the year, initial implementation of tariffs, limited impact","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600076":0.9,"600103":0.9,"600210":0.9,"600235":0.9,"600308":0.9,"600337":0.9,"600356":0.9,"600433":0.9,"600567":0.9,"600793":0.9,"600963":0.9,"600966":0.9,"601515":0.9,"601968":0.9,"601996":0.9,"603008":0.9,"603021":0.9,"603022":0.9,"603058":0.9,"603091":0.9,"603165":0.9,"603180":0.9,"603195":0.9,"603208":0.9,"603216":0.9,"603221":0.9,"603226":0.9,"603268":0.9,"603272":0.9,"603313":0.9,"603326":0.9,"603385":0.9,"603389":0.9,"603408":0.9,"603429":0.9,"603499":0.9,"603600":0.9,"603607":0.9,"603610":0.9,"603615":0.9,"603661":0.9,"603687":0.9,"603709":0.9,"603725":0.9,"603733":0.9,"603801":0.9,"603816":0.9,"603818":0.9,"603833":0.9,"603838":0.9,"603848":0.9,"603863":0.9,"603898":0.9,"603899":0.9,"603992":0.9,"605007":0.9,"605080":0.9,"605099":0.9,"605155":0.9,"605268":0.9,"605299":0.9,"605377":0.9,"605500":0.9},"content_text":"（以下内容从信达证券《轻工制造行业事项点评：出口：开年订单乐观，关税初步落地、影响有限》研报附件原文摘录）本期内容提要:关税初步落地，影响有限。关税初步落地，目前多数公司与客户仍在协商（FOB模式下现阶段客户承担关税为主），我们预计未来将通过产品更新、供应商小幅降价、终端小幅提价共同消化。龙头企业海外产能布局完善，订单加速外移背景下有望受益。此外，近期越南表示愿意开放市场、从美国增加进口各类农产品（为美国第九大农产品出口市场），我们认为当前越南关税风险较低，且态度积极、未来有望通过谈判&开放市场弱化风险。海外需求韧性突出，开年订单乐观。海外宏观数据持续超预期，2024年10/11/12月美国家具零售同比+1.5%/+0.7%/+5.3%（23年2月后首次回正）。2025年1月Costco销售额同比+7.5%，其中美国同比+9.2%。降息周期驱动需求复苏、终端景气向上。微观层面，我们预计25Q1多数公司订单&出货表现稳健、美国市场需求展望仍稳健向上。关税协商层面：根据我们跟踪，1）嘉益股份、哈尔斯、浩洋股份、依依股份等替代难度较高，我们预计关税主要由客户承担；2）匠心家居、永艺股份、共创草坪、天振股份、梦百合、乐歌股份等海外产能充沛，有望受益于订单转移；3）建霖家居、家联科技、浙江自然、英科再生等海外产能提升、影响逐步弱化；4）跨境中致欧科技、赛维时代、恒林股份等加速供应链外移、并有望调价降低影响；5）玉马科技、西大门、吉宏股份、久祺股份、松霖科技等美国占比较低，影响有限。订单跟踪层面：1）嘉益股份、哈尔斯、浙江自然等受益于需求景气、客户扩张，我们预计Q1订单&出货有望实现30%左右或以上增长，永艺股份有望实现20%左右或以上增长；跨境业务延续高增，我们预计卡罗特、赛维时代、华凯易佰（含通拓）、西大门、乐歌股份等有望实现30%左右及以上增长。2）匠心家居、致欧科技、家联科技、恒林股份、英科再生、共创草坪、玉马科技等有望实现双位数以上增长。3）建霖家居、松霖科技、浩洋股份、英派斯等预计表现平稳。此外，天振股份24H2订单逐步复苏，我们预计25Q1同比低基数下增速靓丽。投资建议：代工关注海外布局充分的永艺股份、匠心家居、共创草坪等，业绩具备弹性的嘉益股份、浙江自然等，结构成长、估值依然偏低的哈尔斯、西大门、依依股份、英科再生、玉马科技、英派斯、建霖家居等，困境反转的浩洋股份、天振股份等。跨境建议关注盈利能力领先、全球布局持续深化的卡罗特、致欧科技、赛维时代、安克创新、恒林股份等，关注结构性成长的华凯易佰、吉宏股份等。风险提示：海外需求不及预期，贸易摩擦加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2512126589","isCrawlerRequest":true}