DeepSeek让美股面对强劲财报仍然涨不动？

金融界2025-02-15

微软季度财报超市场预期，但次日股价下跌6.2%。亚马逊财报显示每股收益比市场预期高出25%，但次日股价相对标普500指数的涨跌率下降了3.1%。低成本中国AI让市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI投资加强警惕……美国股价指数在创新高之前停滞不前。财报强劲企业的股票也上涨乏力，财报未达预期的股票则出现暴跌。随着低成本的中国AI问世，市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI相关投资的警惕感再次加强。以截至2月10日公布...

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href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/15084348181386.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>微软季度财报超市场预期，但次日股价下跌6.2%。亚马逊财报显示每股收益比市场预期高出25%，但次日股价相对标普500指数的涨跌率下降了3.1%。低成本中国AI让市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI投资加强警惕……美国股价指数在创新高之前停滞不前。财报强劲企业的股票也上涨乏力，财报未达预期的股票则出现暴跌。随着低成本的中国AI问世，市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI相关投资的警惕感再次加强。以截至2月10日公布...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2025/02/15084348181386.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1989772923.USD","symbol_name":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc 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reports?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.87,"USAW.SI":0.6,"AMZN":0.87,"CEO":1},"content_text":"微软季度财报超市场预期，但次日股价下跌6.2%。亚马逊财报显示每股收益比市场预期高出25%，但次日股价相对标普500指数的涨跌率下降了3.1%。低成本中国AI让市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI投资加强警惕……美国股价指数在创新高之前停滞不前。财报强劲企业的股票也上涨乏力，财报未达预期的股票则出现暴跌。随着低成本的中国AI问世，市场对美国科技巨头的巨额AI相关投资的警惕感再次加强。以截至2月10日公布2024年10～12月财报（部分财报期间不同）的标准普尔500指数的成分股为对象，统计了财报公布后的股价涨跌率（该企业的股价相对于标准普尔500指数的涨跌率）。从营业收入和每股收益（EPS）均超过分析师预期统计值的10只股票来看，剔除指数影响的相对涨跌率的中间值仅上升了0.1%。即使每股收益超过市场预期，但如果营业收入未达到预期，相对涨跌率则下降1.7%。通常情况下，每股收益超出预期却难以得到积极评价的情况很少见。美银证券的数据显示，每股收益超出预期的10只股票的超额收益率仅为过去财报季平均的一半。美银证券的Ohsung Kwon表示，“并未出现如高于预期、股价上涨会超过指数的典型关系”。象征此次股价反应的是大型科技股。微软1月29日傍晚公布的季度财报超过了美国FactSet统计的预期，但随后1月30日股价下跌6.2%。在标准普尔500指数当天上涨0.5%的情况下，微软股价逆势下跌。亚马逊2月6日公布的季度财报显示，每股收益比预期高出25%，但是随后2月7日相对标准普尔500指数的涨跌率却下降了3.1%。解读的关键在于美国科技巨头展开的进攻性的AI基础设施投资。微软和亚马逊等涉足数据中心业务的4家美国大型企业2024年全年的设备投资额达到约2450亿美元，同比增长6成。占到投资额大部分的是具备高度运算处理能力的AI半导体。“借助AI这种一生难得一次的机会扩大设备投资，从中长期来看对业务有好处”。亚马逊的首席执行官（CEO）Andy Jassy在财报说明会上这样强调。但是，随着中国企业DeepSeek开发的低成本、高性能的AI模型“R1”问世，巨额投资的前提出现动摇。2024年夏季，对AI投资过度的担忧在市场上扩散，成为引发当时巨大科技股下跌的原因之一。随着中国AI的亮相，人们的担忧再次重演。也有观点指出，如果像R1一样廉价的开源型AI模型得到普及，数据中心的需求反而会增加。但是市场仍无法摆脱不安。美银证券的数据显示，与美国上市企业整体相比，设备投资增长较快的股票的股价表现往往较差。强劲财报之所以难以得到积极评价，美国股票根深蒂固的高估值也是一个原因。标准普尔500的预期PER（市盈率、以未来12个月为准）为22倍区间前半。虽然略低于2024年12月的22倍区间中段，但仍比过去20年的平均水平（16倍多）高出4成左右。财报季结束后，投资者的关注点将再次集中于宏观方面。美国特朗普政府发动贸易战等政策方面的不确定性成为打击投资者心理的因素。虽然对墨西哥和加拿大的关税被推迟，但随着期限的临近，紧张感似乎有可能加剧。\n\n\r\n            责任编辑：小讯","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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