太平洋证券-纺织服装行业2025年度投资策略报告：从单边行情走向双边轮动-250211

研报虎2025-02-14

报告摘要行情回顾与2025年前瞻：1）后疫情时代，A股纺织服装行业经历了2023年（品牌>制造）和2024年（制造>品牌）两年相对单边的行情。2023年品牌端表现较强主要是由于疫情期间可选消费需求的低基数效应和集中释放；2024年制造端强势主要是于海外市场库存周期去化和需求复苏。基本面层面，我们认为以品牌服饰为代表的可选消费在政策刺激和信心重建下正在踏入逐步复苏的通道，宏观环境好于2024年；制造...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2511639366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-02-14 13:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2511639366","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"太平洋证券-纺织服装行业2025年度投资策略报告：从单边行情走向双边轮动-250211","media":"研报虎","content":"<div>\n<p>报告摘要行情回顾与2025年前瞻：1）后疫情时代，A股纺织服装行业经历了2023年（品牌>制造）和2024年（制造>品牌）两年相对单边的行情。2023年品牌端表现较强主要是由于疫情期间可选消费需求的低基数效应和集中释放；2024年制造端强势主要是于海外市场库存周期去化和需求复苏。基本面层面，我们认为以品牌服饰为代表的可选消费在政策刺激和信心重建下正在踏入逐步复苏的通道，宏观环境好于2024年；制造...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250214133458abce7463&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>太平洋证券-纺织服装行业2025年度投资策略报告：从单边行情走向双边轮动-250211</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n太平洋证券-纺织服装行业2025年度投资策略报告：从单边行情走向双边轮动-250211\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-14 13:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250214133458abce7463&s=b><strong>研报虎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>报告摘要行情回顾与2025年前瞻：1）后疫情时代，A股纺织服装行业经历了2023年（品牌>制造）和2024年（制造>品牌）两年相对单边的行情。2023年品牌端表现较强主要是由于疫情期间可选消费需求的低基数效应和集中释放；2024年制造端强势主要是于海外市场库存周期去化和需求复苏。基本面层面，我们认为以品牌服饰为代表的可选消费在政策刺激和信心重建下正在踏入逐步复苏的通道，宏观环境好于2024年；制造...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250214133458abce7463&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"603365","symbol_name":"水星家纺","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250214133458abce7463&s=b","article_id":"2511639366","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250214133458abce7463&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2511639366","pubTimestamp":1739510611,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"报告摘要行情回顾与2025年前瞻：1）后疫情时代，A股纺织服装行业经历了2023年和2024年两年相对单边的行情。因此综上我们判断2025年A股纺织服装行业从品牌和制造的相对单边行情走向更频繁的轮动。具体体现在制造端的优质企业有望在2025年继续体现业绩韧性，品牌端企业有望阶段性体现风险偏好和避险需求。2）港股品牌服饰依然处于风险偏好的低潮期，仍需基本面超预期因素催化板块。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","600107":"ST尔雅","600137":"浪莎股份","600156":"华升股份","600177":"雅戈尔","600232":"金鹰股份","600272":"开开实业","600302":"标准股份","600370":"三房巷","600398":"海澜之家","600400":"红豆股份","600448":"华纺股份","600493":"凤竹纺织","600626":"申达股份","600630":"龙头股份","600689":"上海三毛","600735":"ST新华锦","600824":"益民集团","600843":"上工申贝","600851":"海欣股份","600987":"航民股份","601099":"太平洋","601339":"百隆东方","601566":"九牧王","601599":"浙文影业","601718":"际华集团","603001":"奥康国际","603055":"台华新材","603073":"彩蝶实业","603095":"越剑智能","603116":"红蜻蜓","603130":"云中马","603196":"日播时尚","603238":"诺邦股份","603307":"扬州金泉","603365":"水星家纺","603477":"巨星农牧","603511":"爱慕股份","603518":"锦泓集团","603557":"ST起步","603558":"健盛集团","603587":"地素时尚","603608":"天创时尚","603665":"康隆达","603808":"歌力思","603839":"安正时尚","603877":"太平鸟","603889":"新澳股份","603908":"牧高笛","603958":"哈森股份","605003":"众望布艺","605055":"迎丰股份","605080":"浙江自然","605138":"盛泰集团","605180":"华生科技","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0247":"纺织业","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0077":"质押式回购","BK0028":"国家队","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0201":"可转债"},"translate_title":"Pacific Securities-Textile and Apparel Industry 2025 Annual Investment Strategy Report: From Unilateral Market to Bilateral Rotation-250211","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1,"600107":0.9,"600137":0.9,"600156":0.9,"600177":0.9,"600232":0.9,"600272":0.9,"600302":0.9,"600370":0.9,"600398":0.9,"600400":0.9,"600448":0.9,"600493":0.9,"600626":0.9,"600630":0.9,"600689":0.9,"600735":0.9,"600824":0.9,"600843":0.9,"600851":0.9,"600987":0.9,"601099":1,"601339":0.9,"601566":0.9,"601599":0.9,"601718":0.9,"603001":0.9,"603055":0.9,"603073":0.9,"603095":0.9,"603116":0.9,"603130":0.9,"603196":0.9,"603238":0.9,"603307":0.9,"603365":0.9,"603477":0.9,"603511":0.9,"603518":0.9,"603557":0.9,"603558":0.9,"603587":0.9,"603608":0.9,"603665":0.9,"603808":0.9,"603839":0.9,"603877":0.9,"603889":0.9,"603908":0.9,"603958":0.9,"605003":0.9,"605055":0.9,"605080":0.9,"605138":0.9,"605180":0.9},"content_text":"报告摘要行情回顾与2025年前瞻：1）后疫情时代，A股纺织服装行业经历了2023年（品牌>制造）和2024年（制造>品牌）两年相对单边的行情。2023年品牌端表现较强主要是由于疫情期间可选消费需求的低基数效应和集中释放；2024年制造端强势主要是于海外市场库存周期去化和需求复苏。基本面层面，我们认为以品牌服饰为代表的可选消费在政策刺激和信心重建下正在踏入逐步复苏的通道，宏观环境好于2024年；制造端我们认为市场担忧的关税问题实际影响被高估，制造企业经历上一轮关税变化后应对相对成熟。风险偏好层面，“924”政策后中小标的受市场青睐明显提升。因此综上我们判断2025年A股纺织服装行业从品牌和制造的相对单边行情走向更频繁的轮动。具体体现在制造端的优质企业有望在2025年继续体现业绩韧性，品牌端企业有望阶段性体现风险偏好（复苏超预期型）和避险需求（高股息低估值型）。2）港股品牌服饰依然处于风险偏好的低潮期，仍需基本面超预期因素催化板块。品牌服饰:24年整体表现符合基本面趋势，25年把握结构性和波段轮动机会板块表现：1）社零数据：24H1温和修复，必选表现优于可选，6月整体承压明显。Q3可选消费逐季改善；10月在国庆和双十一前置下，服装、化妆品零售增速明显反弹；叠加之后消费政策发力，终端消费情绪改善；2）板块表现：户外高景气，男装表现韧性，女装&休闲延续弱复苏。投资主线：1）运动是长逻辑赛道，关注小众运动和质价比消费；2）业绩稳定+高股息+消费补贴政策催化的家纺板块；3）内部业务调整有望释放高弹性，关注复苏超预期的品牌企业。推荐逻辑：1）高景气赛道+优质公司：安踏体育、361度；2）业务调整带来高弹性的品牌：海澜之家、锦泓集团、森马服饰、南极电商；3）高分红和政策催化，经营趋势向好；4）品牌质地扎实，有望享受复苏估值提升的细分赛道头部品牌：比音勒芬、报喜鸟、歌力思","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2511639366","isCrawlerRequest":true}